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Hazards Assessment Caveat Emptor

Purpose: This product is intended to provide emergency managers, planners, forecasters and the public advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrologic events. It integrates existing NWS official medium- (3-5) day, extended- (6-10 day) and long- (monthly and seasonal) range forecasts, and hydrologic analyses and forecasts, which use state-of-the-art science and technology in their formulation.

When using this assessment, please keep in mind that the models used to produce this assessment change, sometimes markedly, from one day to the next, even in the shortest ranges. Also, the medium range forecast models have crude topography and do not, in general, handle local orographic effects very well. Local forecasters are in the best position to interpret such local effects, especially in the shorter forecast time ranges.

Differences between the official 6-10 day forecast and the Hazards map are mainly due to changes in the model forecasts between Monday and Tuesday.

Local NWS offices should always be consulted for detailed information and forecasts of potentially severe weather and hydrologic conditions. The Hazards assessment is updated Monday thru Friday afternoon by 4 P.M. Eastern Time.

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
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Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: October 20, 2006
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