CPC Banner
 

Threats Assessment Summary
Valid Friday, March 31, 2000 - Friday, April 7, 2000.


Discussion

Temperature/Wind Precipitation
Soil/Wildfire Composite
Click on image for enlarged map

Synopsis: A series of upper level troughs are expected to move across the northern U.S. during the period, while a high pressure ridge seems likely to persist over the West. The succession of troughs is expected to bring cold air into the northern Plains, and much of the northeastern quadrant of the country, leading to the first killing frost or freeze of the season to many areas where the growing season has not yet ended. Temperatures should remain warm in the Southwest, with no significant precipitation anywhere west of the Rocky Mountains. A series of storms is expected to bring high winds and waves, and heavy precipitation to southern coastal sections of Alaska. Hurricane Jose is predicted to move through the northeastern Caribbean but is not expected to threaten the mainland U.S.

Threats:

  • Drought continues in parts of the South, the Ohio Valley and the Midwest. There has been slight improvement in Texas. Drought continues unabated in northeastern Oregon, southeastern Washington, southwestern Idaho and northern Nevada

  • The strongest cold airmass of the season so far is expected to bring the first killing frost or freeze of the season to many areas of the north-central and northeastern U.S. where the growing season has not yet ended.

  • High fire danger continues in portions of the West, due to a continuation of warm, dry weather.

  • Hurricane Jose, the 10th named Atlantic storm of the season, is predicted to move through the northeastern Caribbean the next few days. Please refer to the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

  • A series of autumn storms is expected to affect southern Alaska with heavy precipitation, high winds and high waves along the coast.

  • La Nina continues in the equatorial Pacific and is likely to persist through the coming winter.

Detailed Summary:
For Friday Oct 22 through Sunday Oct 24: Most available models show an amplified pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough. A significant cold outbreak is likely to overspread the northern Great Plains and much of the northeastern quadrant of the Nation, bringing the first killing frost or hard freeze to areas where the growing season has not yet ended. A deep trough south of the Aleutians steers two storms northeastward towards the Alaska Panhandle where high winds and waves and heavy precipitation are expected. No significant precipitation is expected over the West, where continued warm conditions will prevent the fire danger from diminishing. However, no strong downslope winds are expected during this period or the following week. Hurricane Jose, the 10th named tropical storm of this season, is predicted to cross the northeastern Caribbean but will probably recurve well before nearing the U.S. mainland.

For Monday Oct 25 through Friday Oct 29: The same basic pattern continues with little significant overall change. Two more intense storms are predicted to strike the south coast of Alaska, bringing gales and heavy precipitation. Another significant cold outbreak over the north-central and northeastern parts of the country is possible near the end of the period.

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.