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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made June 20, 2018

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Probabilistic Days 8-14
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Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Saturday June 23, 2018 to Wednesday July 04, 2018

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 20 2018

Synopsis: A broad area of high pressure aloft is expected to persist over the lower 48 throughout much of the next two weeks. Frontal activity is likely over the central and eastern U.S. in the 3-7 day period, with possible extension into Week-2. Excessive heat is forecast to be a concern for parts of the southern tier of the country and for the Northeast and Upper Mid-West in Week-2. For Alaska, precipitation is expected throughout the 3 to 7 day period associated with mid-level low pressure, though likely will not be hazardous.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday June 23 - Wednesday June 27: An upper-level ridge over the Southwest is forecast early in the period, before deamplifying and flattening by the end of the weekend. Very warm temperatures are expected over the desert Southwest, resultant from this upper-level pattern. Currently, excessive heat is likely June 23, where temperatures are expected to exceed 110 degrees F. Temperatures are expected to briefly cool later in the weekend, as the upper-level pattern becomes more zonal over the U.S. 500-hPa ridging is anticipated to re-develop over the western third of the CONUS early next week, increasing chances for much above normal temperatures across parts of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Plains, June 25 to 26. Maximum temperatures are expected to reach 12 Deg F above normal, with temperatures reaching the 90s (Deg F) in localized areas. As the mid-level ridge flattens, northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen. This increased flow and critically dry conditions with deep-mixing enhances the likelihood for fire weather risk June 23 to 24.

An active frontal boundary is expected to persist through the 3-7 day period over the eastern and central CONUS and several low pressure systems are likely to move along this front. The front is forecast to progress southeastward as a surface low tracks northeastward to the Northeast over the weekend bringing heavy rain initially to parts of the central CONUS, shifting to the Great Lakes. Localized areas within the parts highlighted may receive 1.5 inches or greater of rainfall in a 24-hour period.

The 500-hPa heights over the Southeast are expected to increase toward the middle of the 3-7 day period. Dew points in the low to mid 70's and high humidity coincide with the increase in mid-level heights over the region. Excessive heat is forecast for parts of the southeastern CONUS, June 24-26; localized heat index values may exceed 110 deg F.

A surface trough is predicted to form across the Great Plains from the beginning to middle of the 3 to 7 day period. This pattern may support increased chances for high winds across parts of portions of the Central Plains and the Southern Plains, June 23 to 25. Some areas may experience sustained winds reaching 30 knots or greater.

Widespread mid-level troughing is expected for Alaska through the 3 to 7 day period. Several surface low pressure systems are forecast to move over the mainland and parts of the southern coast; however, all impacts from these systems are currently forecast to remain below hazardous criteria.

For Thursday June 28 - Wednesday July 04: Amplified mid-level ridging is forecast to build across much of the CONUS at the beginning of Week-2 and persist throughout most of Week-2. A slight risk of much above normal temperatures has been forecast for portions of the Great Lakes and the Northeast, June 28 to July 4, associated with this ridging. The GEFS probabilistic tool predicts a 20%-30% chance of temperatures surpassing the 85th climatological percentile. Areas of slight risk for excessive heat are highlighted across parts of the portions of the Central and Northern Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes (heat values reaching 105 Deg F or greater), June 29 to July 4, and parts of the Southwest (heat values reaching 110 Deg F or greater), June 28 to July 1.

A surface low is anticipated to move over the central Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley, along the frontal boundary from the previous period. Currently, the GEFS probabilistic tool is forecasting a 20 percent chance or greater of rainfall totals across parts of the Central and Northern Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, surpassing the 85th percentile. The GEFS Reforecast Tool identifies an area further south across the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central, and Southern Plains, whereas the ECMWF Reforecast Tool shows increased chances over the upper Mid-West into the Middle Mississippi Valley. A broad area is highlighted that incorporates main areas of overlap between the two model guidance tools.

The overall Week-2 pattern for Alaska is predicted to be dominated by mid-level troughing over mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, and ridging across the Panhandle. No hazards are identified for Alaska at this time.

The US Drought Monitor, valid on June 12, indicates that the coverage of severe to exceptional drought decreased slightly from 17.06 percent to 16.97 percent. Exceptional drought remains entrenched over the Four Corners region. Some improvement in conditions is seen in the Oklahoma Panhandle and into southwestern Kansas.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.