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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 26, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
Temperature
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Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Monday August 29, 2016 to Friday September 09, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 26 2016

Synopsis: At the start of the period, a tropical disturbance is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is currently anticipated to move slowly northwestward then drift north/northeastward towards the eastern Gulf Coast and the southeast states. Upper-level low pressure is anticipated over parts of the southern Plains Aug 29-30. Upper-level high pressure is predicted over the west-central U.S. for much of the assessment period. Surface low pressure near the Alaska Panhandle early in the period is forecast to bring unsettled weather to the region, while later in the period surface low pressure is expected over the Aleutians. During week-2, upper-level low pressure is anticipated over the western U.S. while upper-level high pressure is expected over the central part of the nation.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday August 29 - Friday September 02: Early in the period, a tropical disturbance is forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is expected to drift northwestward then north/northeastward towards the eastern Gulf Coast by Sep, 1, and over the southeast Sep 2. This leads to expected heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the Tennessee Valley, southeast and Mid-Atlantic Aug 29-Sep 2. The exact track and strength of the tropical disturbance are highly uncertain at this time and additional impacts (flooding, isolated tornadoes, high winds, significant waves, beach erosion, etc.) are possible for parts of the southeast and Gulf coast. In addition, parts of Louisiana are currently experiencing flooding so that additional heavy rainfall would extend and exacerbate flooding concerns, although the heaviest rain is currently expected to fall to the east of where the most serious flooding is occurring. Please consult the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

A mid-level trough is forecast to move westward across southern Texas. This leads to anticipated heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of southern Texas Aug 29-30.

An amplified ridge over the interior western CONUS leads to a forecast for much above normal temperatures (positive anomalies of 10-12 degrees F) for parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Aug 29-30.

Monsoonal flow is expected to cause locally heavy rain for parts of the southwestern CONUS.

Antecedent rainfall, in combination with additional rainfall expected during the period leads to flooding possible, imminent, or occurring across portions of the Great Lakes and the Mississippi Valley.

Despite dry fuels over much of the western CONUS, wind speeds are forecast to lessen so that critical fire weather conditions are not currently anticipated early in the period. Later in the period, model uncertainty is too large to specify a hazard shape.

A tropical system expected to develop over the eastern Pacific may approach Hawaii late in this period or early in the week-2 period. Please consult the latest advisories from NHC at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/.

For Saturday September 03 - Friday September 09: During week-2 the circulation pattern is expected to feature a trough over the western CONUS, a weak ridge over the central states, and a weak trough just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This circulation pattern favors below normal temperatures over the western CONUS. Anomalous southerly flow leads to a slight risk of much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern and Central Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes Sep 3-4 and a moderate risk of much above normal temperatures for parts of the Northern and Central Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley Sep 3.

The tropical disturbance currently northeast of Cuba of Haiti may be impacting parts of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic early in the period but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard shapes at the current time. The Atlantic is showing increased tropical activity and this evolution will need to be monitored. Please consult the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the coverage of severe or greater drought decreased slightly to 7.41 percent from 7.71 percent. Improvements were realized across central Texas and the Tennessee Valley.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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