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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made July 22, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
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Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Monday July 25, 2016 to Friday August 05, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 22 2016

Synopsis: A surface low and its trailing cold front are forecast to progress across the east-central U.S. early in the period. A stationary front is expected to extend across the Missouri River Valley from July 25 to 28. An area of upper-level high pressure is forecast to strengthen over the western U.S. during the next week, while an area of upper-level low pressure persists over mainland Alaska through at least the end of July. During Week-2, upper-level high pressure is expected to remain anchored along the 35th parallel.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday July 25 - Friday July 29: Excessive heat is expected to persist across parts of the mid-Atlantic through Monday, July 25. Maximum heat index values are forecast to be near or above 105 degrees F in the outlined area for excessive heat on the map. Excessive heat is expected to ease after Monday, July 25 as 500-hpa heights decrease slightly across the east-central U.S.

An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify across the western U.S. during the next week. Much above-normal temperatures, with maximum temperatures averaging around 10 degrees F above-normal, are expected to expand north from California and Nevada to eastern Washington and Oregon from July 25 to 29.

Shortwave troughs embedded within increasing northwest flow aloft and a stationary front is likely to result in the development of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) across the north-central Great Plains, beginning on July 26. These MCSs are likely to bring periods of heavy rain (more than 1 inch per 24 hours) to parts of the Missouri and middle to upper Mississippi Valleys from July 26 to 28. Low predictability in timing and exact location precludes designation of a severe weather hazard across the central U.S. at this time.

A steady increase in monsoon moisture is expected across the Southwest as the mid-level ridge axis shifts north and deep easterly flow becomes established. Tropical Storm Frank in the east Pacific is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend and track south of the Baja Peninsula. A northward shift in the track of Frank would also enhance low-level moisture across the desert Southwest. Although no heavy rain hazards are posted on the map, the risk for convection capable of triggering flash flooding seems to be increasing across the desert Southwest during the final week of July.

An amplifying upper-level trough coupled with onshore flow is expected to result in heavy rainfall (2 inches or more per 24 hours) across coastal southeast Alaska during this time period. Based on model guidance, heavy rain is most likely on July 25 and then again on the 28th and 29th.

Tropical Storm Darby in the central Pacific is forecast to affect the Hawaiian Islands this weekend with increased rainfall and winds. The predicted track takes Darby north of the Hawaiian Islands early next week. Please refer to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ for the latest updates.

For Saturday July 30 - Friday August 05: The 6Z GFS and 0Z ECMWF ensemble means feature an amplified ridge near the West Coast. The amplified upper-level ridge continues to support a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures across much of the western U.S. from July 30 through August 1. A moderate risk of much-above normal temperatures is posted across parts of California, the Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest where the 6Z GFS ensemble mean indicates temperatures averaging more than 8 degrees F above-normal on July 30 and 31. Based on guidance from the GEFS reforecast tool, a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures is posted for parts of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast from July 30 to August 1.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), released on July 21, severe, or greater intensity, drought covers 5.68 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), an increase of a half percent since the previous week. This increase is due to an expansion of short-term severe drought east of the Rockies.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.