Home Site Map News Organization
www.nws.noaa.gov
Download KML
Day 3-7 Precipitation
Day 3-7 Temperature
Day 3-7 Soils
Day 8-14 Precipitation
Day 8-14 Temperature
Day 8-14 Soils

Download Shapefiles
Day 3-7 Precipitation
Day 3-7 Temperature
Day 3-7 Soils
Day 8-14 Precipitation
Day 8-14 Temperature
Day 8-14 Soils

Hazards Archives

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team


HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made September 23, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Monday September 26, 2016 to Friday October 07, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT September 23 2016

Synopsis: At the start of the period, a cold front is anticipated to stretch from an area of surface low pressure over south-central Canada southward across the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and then southwestward across the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. The northern part of the front is expected to move slowly eastward while the southern portion of the front stalls near the Texas Gulf Coast. Strong surface high pressure forecast over the Great Basin Sep 26 will cause offshore winds for parts of southern California. An area of surface low pressure is expected near the Alaska Panhandle Sep 26. Deep surface low pressure is forecast over eastern Russia/the Bering Sea on Sep 30. During week-2, a moderate amplitude flow pattern is anticipated across much of the U.S. with an area of upper-level low pressure expected over the west, and upper-level high pressure over the central and eastern parts of the country. Upper-level low pressure is forecast over the Bering Sea during week-2.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday September 26 - Friday September 30: At the start of the period, low pressure is forecast over south-central Canada. A front associated with this area of low pressure is forecast to stretch southward from the Great Lakes to across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and then southwestward from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains. The front is expected to act as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of central and southern Texas Sep 26-27. Flooding is possible for parts of south-central Texas.

Antecedent rainfall leads to flooding occurring or possible for parts of Northeastern North Carolina and parts of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley.

Southerly flow on the rear side of high pressure forecast to build over the Great Basin leads to the expectation of much above normal temperatures (positive temperature anomalies as much as 15-20 degrees F) for parts of central Oregon and Northern and Central California Sep 26-27. The area of high pressure is also predicted to lead to enhanced offshore flow over southern California. The potential offshore winds, in combination with a dry air mass and dry fuels leads to critical fire weather conditions for parts of southern California Sep 26.

An area of low pressure forecast near the Alaska Panhandle leads to heavy rain (in excess of 2 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the central and southern Alaska Panhandle Sep 26. At the end of the assessment period, a deep area of low pressure is predicted over eastern Russia/the Bering Sea. Southwesterly flow ahead of this area of low pressure could lead to heavy rain, high winds significant waves, coastal flooding, and beach erosion for parts of west coastal Mainland Alaska. Model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard shapes at the current time but this situation will need to be carefully monitored.

Tropical systems Karl and Lisa, currently over the tropical Atlantic, are expected to recurve before getting in close proximity to the U.S. east coast. Recent GFS model solutions indicate a tropical system over the eastern Pacific to be approaching the southwest CONUS late in the period. A moisture surge associated with this system could bring heavy rain and localized flooding to parts of the southwest U.S. but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard shapes at the current time. For more information on these systems please consult the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

For Saturday October 01 - Friday October 07: A tropical wave currently moving off the west coast of Africa is forecast by some models to move across southern portions of the tropical Atlantic towards the U.S. or Gulf of Mexico during this period. For more information on this system please consult the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Low pressure forecast over far eastern Russia/Bering Sea leads to potential strong west-southwesterly flow over western Alaska Oct 1-Oct 2. Heavy rain, coastal flooding, significant waves, and beach erosion are possible for the region, but model uncertainty precludes the specification of hazard shapes at the current time.

During week-2 a moderately amplified flow pattern is forecast across most of the CONUS with a trough over the west and a ridge anticipated over the central and eastern parts of the nation. A trough is anticipated over the Bering Sea.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on September 20, the coverage of severe or greater drought (for the CONUS) increased very slightly from 7.72 to 7.76 percent during the past week. Less than 1 percent of th Hawaiian Islands is designated with severe drought.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

$$

Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.