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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made March 22, 2017

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks (Information)

Valid Saturday March 25, 2017 to Wednesday April 05, 2017

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 22 2017

Synopsis: A low pressure system initially forecast over southeast Kansas is forecast to track eastward, reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast on March 27th. During this time, a cold front is predicted to extend eastward from the surface Low to the Mid-Atlantic. Several other low pressure systems are expected to organize across the southern High Plains region and track towards the Mid-Atlantic coast throughout the first ten days of the Outlook period. Several frontal systems are predicted to traverse the West during the 3-7 day period, with a decline in storm activity anticipated in Week-2. In Alaska, surface high pressure is predicted to dominate the northern portions of the state, while several weak low pressure areas move across the southern portions of the state.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday March 25 - Wednesday March 29: At the beginning of this period, low pressure over southeast Kansas is expected to track eastward across the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast on March 27th. During this time, a cold front is predicted to extend eastward from the surface Low to the Mid-Atlantic, with cold high pressure located to its north. On March 25th, an area of severe thunderstorms may develop over the central Gulf Coast states, with the primary hazards being wind and hail. Periods of locally heavy rain (2-3 inches) are forecast from March 25-28 over south-central parts of both the Plains and Mississippi Valley, the Lower Tennessee Valley, and northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states. As the main surface Low reaches the Mid-Atlantic region, and the vicinity of the east-west oriented cold front, overrunning moisture on the northern side of this front is forecast to result in mixed precipitation for much of New York and New England, and the northern Great Lakes region, March 26-27. Locales that are deeper into the cold air mass are predicted to experience ice pellets and snow, while places that are farther south are more likely to get rain and/or freezing rain.

As the low pressure system weakens over the Northeast, another southern stream disturbance is anticipated to develop across the southern High Plains. Severe weather is forecast over parts of the southern Plains on March 26th, with the primary hazards again being wind and hail.

Pacific storm systems are forecast to move across the West Coast states during this period. However, precipitation amounts are expected to remain below hazardous thresholds in western Washington, western Oregon, and northern California.

Flooding is likely, or occurring/imminent across parts of the Pacific Northwest, the northern and central Intermountain region, the northern Rockies, and extreme northeastern Montana. This is due to unseasonably warm temperatures coupled with rainfall during mid-March.

Much below-normal temperatures (by about 10-15 degrees F) are predicted to linger across south-central Alaska on March 25-26. This forecast represents a compromise between a colder GFS solution and a warmer ECMWF solution.

For Thursday March 30 - Wednesday April 05: An area of heavy rain is forecast over eastern portions of both Oklahoma and Texas, and over the Lower Mississippi Valley, during the first two days of this period. There is also the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop once again over this same general region (centered near the Arklatex), though it is too early to highlight any areas with confidence at this time. This is in response to a 500-hPa trough expected to approach this area from the west.

On March 30th, there is a slight chance (20-percent) of much above-normal temperatures from the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast. Within this area, temperatures are expected to reach the 85th percentile (or higher) of the historical distribution. For most areas, high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-upper 80's, while a few locales may push 90 deg F.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid on March 14, severe drought is designated across parts of Arizona, California, the central and southern Great Plains, Arkansas, Missouri, and the eastern U.S. Coverage of severe, or greater intensity, drought throughout the CONUS decreased slightly from 4 to 3.95 percent.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.