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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made May 25, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical Outlooks
Probabilistic Outlooks (Description)

Valid Saturday May 28, 2016 to Wednesday June 08, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 25 2016

Synopsis: An area of upper-level low pressure across the west-central CONUS is expected to gradually weaken during the next week with a dissipating surface front over the Great Plains. A low pressure system is expected to affect the coastal Southeast during the Memorial Day weekend. An area of upper-level high pressure is likely to persist across Alaska into the beginning of June. During Week-2, an area of upper-level high pressure is expected to build across the northwestern CONUS with an area of upper-level low pressure extending across the eastern and south-central U.S.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday May 28 - Wednesday June 01: Shortwave troughs ejecting from the longwave trough centered over the Rockies is likely to trigger daily convection across the Great Plains through the end of May. The most likely area and timing for locally heavy rainfall (more than 1 inch per 24 hours) extends from the lower Missouri River Valley south to northern Texas from May 29 to 31. On June 1, the risk for heavy rainfall is expected to shift south across Texas where moist, southeasterly flow interacts with a remnant front. Weakening flow at the mid-levels is expected to become less favorable for widespread severe weather events across the Great Plains.

Recent rainfall has resulted in minor to moderate flooding across parts of the central U.S. and is likely to continue into the beginning of June. For example, moderate flooding is forecast to persist along parts of the North Platte River in Nebraska. Any heavy rainfall could exacerbate ongoing flooding and may cause additional flooding due to the antecedent wetness.

Model guidance continues to indicate that a mid-level low and a weak surface low with tropical origins approaches the Southeast coast during the weekend. Regardless of intensity, locally heavy rain (more than 1 inch per 24 hours) is expected across the coastal Southeast from May 28-30. Due to weak steering flow, the surface low is forecast to remain near the coastal Southeast. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this potential tropical or subtropical storm.

Strong ridging aloft is expected to result in much above-normal temperatures across parts of the Northeast, eastern Great Lakes, and upper Ohio Valley on Saturday, May 28. Maximum temperatures are forecast to average 10 to 15 degrees F above-normal across these areas with some locations likely reaching 90 degrees F.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely to persist across much of Alaska as ridging aloft remains dominant through the end of May. Although the 6Z GFS ensemble mean indicates that temperatures will average more than 12 degrees F above-normal across southwest Alaska, these temperatures are not considered to be hazardous.

For Thursday June 02 - Wednesday June 08: The tail end of a surface front, a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and abundant low-level moisture are likely to result in locally heavy rainfall across parts of south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on June 2. The deterministic 6Z/12Z GFS and 0Z ECMWF models indicate local rainfall amounts near 2 inches within the area highlighted for heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, the GFS ensemble mean indicates the potential for heavy rain along the southern coast of Alaska but the ECMWF ensemble mean is weaker with the onshore flow.

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means and their deterministic model runs depict an increase in 500-hpa heights across the western conus by the beginning of Week-2. A slight risk of much above-normal temperatures is posted for parts of the Pacific Northwest where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily maximum temperatures have a 20 percent chance or more of exceeding the 85th percentile and the potential exists for maximum temperatures to exceed 90 degrees F.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor (issued May 19), severe, or greater intensity, drought covers 4.07 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), down from 4.49 percent last week. This is the lowest coverage since October 2010. A visual comparison between the two latest U.S. Drought Monitor maps reveals one-category improvements in portions of northern California (D2 to D1), western Nevada (D3 to D2), and Utah (D1 to D0).

Forecaster: Brad Pugh


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.