Valid Saturday March 25, 2017 to Wednesday April 05, 2017
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT March 22 2017Synopsis
: A low pressure system initially
forecast over southeast Kansas is forecast to track eastward, reaching the
Mid-Atlantic Coast on March 27th. During this time, a cold front is predicted
to extend eastward from the surface Low to the Mid-Atlantic. Several other low
pressure systems are expected to organize across the southern High Plains
region and track towards the Mid-Atlantic coast throughout the first ten days
of the Outlook period. Several frontal systems are predicted to traverse the
West during the 3-7 day period, with a decline in storm activity anticipated in
Week-2. In Alaska, surface high pressure is predicted to dominate the northern
portions of the state, while several weak low pressure areas move across the
southern portions of the state. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Saturday March
25 - Wednesday March 29:
- Severe Weather
for the central Gulf Coast region, Sat, Mar 25.
- Severe Weather for parts of the southern Great Plains, Sun, Mar 26.
- Freezing rain/sleet for northern portions of the Great Lakes region, and
much of both New York state and New England, Sun-Mon, Mar 26-27.
- Periods of locally heavy rain for parts of the south-central Plains, the
south-central Mississippi Valley, the Lower Tennessee Valley, and northern
portions of the central Gulf Coast states, Sat-Tue, Mar 25-28.
- Flooding is likely or imminent/occurring over parts of the Pacific
Northwest, northern and central Intermountain region, and extreme northeastern
- Much below-normal temperatures over south-central Alaska, Sat-Sun, Mar
- Heavy rain for eastern portions of both Oklahoma and Texas, and the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Thu-Fri, Mar 30-31.
- Slight chance of much above-normal temperatures from the Lower Mississippi
Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, Thu, Mar 30.
- Severe Drought across parts of Arizona, California, the central and
southern Great Plains, Arkansas, Missouri, and the eastern U.S.
At the beginning of this period, low pressure
over southeast Kansas is expected to track eastward across the Middle
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast on March 27th.
During this time, a cold front is predicted to extend eastward from the surface
Low to the Mid-Atlantic, with cold high pressure located to its north. On March
25th, an area of severe thunderstorms may develop over the central Gulf Coast
states, with the primary hazards being wind and hail. Periods of locally heavy
rain (2-3 inches) are forecast from March 25-28 over south-central parts of
both the Plains and Mississippi Valley, the Lower Tennessee Valley, and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states. As the main surface Low
reaches the Mid-Atlantic region, and the vicinity of the east-west oriented
cold front, overrunning moisture on the northern side of this front is forecast
to result in mixed precipitation for much of New York and New England, and the
northern Great Lakes region, March 26-27. Locales that are deeper into the cold
air mass are predicted to experience ice pellets and snow, while places that
are farther south are more likely to get rain and/or freezing rain.
As the low pressure system weakens over the Northeast, another southern
stream disturbance is anticipated to develop across the southern High Plains.
Severe weather is forecast over parts of the southern Plains on March 26th,
with the primary hazards again being wind and hail.
Pacific storm systems are forecast to move across the West Coast states
during this period. However, precipitation amounts are expected to remain below
hazardous thresholds in western Washington, western Oregon, and northern
Flooding is likely, or occurring/imminent across parts of the Pacific
Northwest, the northern and central Intermountain region, the northern Rockies,
and extreme northeastern Montana. This is due to unseasonably warm temperatures
coupled with rainfall during mid-March.
Much below-normal temperatures (by about 10-15 degrees F) are predicted to
linger across south-central Alaska on March 25-26. This forecast represents a
compromise between a colder GFS solution and a warmer ECMWF solution. For Thursday
March 30 - Wednesday April 05:
An area of heavy rain is forecast over
eastern portions of both Oklahoma and Texas, and over the Lower Mississippi
Valley, during the first two days of this period. There is also the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop once again over this same general
region (centered near the Arklatex), though it is too early to highlight any
areas with confidence at this time. This is in response to a 500-hPa trough
expected to approach this area from the west.
On March 30th, there is a slight chance (20-percent) of much above-normal
temperatures from the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward to the southern
Atlantic Coast. Within this area, temperatures are expected to reach the 85th
percentile (or higher) of the historical distribution. For most areas, high
temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-upper 80's, while a few locales may
push 90 deg F.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid on March 14, severe drought is
designated across parts of Arizona, California, the central and southern Great
Plains, Arkansas, Missouri, and the eastern U.S. Coverage of severe, or greater
intensity, drought throughout the CONUS decreased slightly from 4 to 3.95
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.