D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Sep 17
Oct 17
Nov 17
Dec 17
Jan 18
Feb 18
Mar 18
Apr 18
May 18
Jun 18
Jul 18
Aug 18
Official
xx
All
59.8
50.3
37.5
46.4
37.5
45.7
34.2
43.7
58.0
40.9
46.1
42.3
45.8
ExpAuto
xx
All
38.0
52.4
37.6
52.2
39.5
50.5
33.5
42.3
60.1
41.0
46.2
44.2
45.1
Auto
xx
All
61.7
52.4
37.4
52.2
39.4
76.2
33.0
42.0
56.0
40.3
46.6
41.7
45.3
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
8.8
25.5
11.7
19.9
10.0
28.0
17.0
17.2
12.9
7.7
18.4
17.3
16.4
Klein
28.5
31.1
22.1
8.5
11.4
37.7
22.0
19.5
10.7
20.3
24.6
22.1
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
10.7
33.3
9.4
21.4
6.4
34.0
17.7
19.6
8.1
5.6
21.1
19.8
17.3
Klein
28.2
33.3
24.5
11.0
10.4
39.2
22.8
19.9
9.2
19.4
26.3
23.0
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
10.4
23.6
13.5
18.0
2.3
26.7
10.6
18.5
6.1
10.3
16.6
19.5
14.4
Klein
28.3
29.3
19.6
6.8
4.5
35.9
19.0
21.6
8.0
17.5
23.5
21.3
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
9.6
24.6
12.8
19.1
8.6
24.1
12.7
23.1
7.7
6.9
14.0
17.3
14.9
Klein
27.6
28.3
20.0
6.6
7.3
32.7
16.0
25.9
10.2
16.9
22.8
25.3
19.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
8.0
29.5
10.5
20.8
5.8
27.7
15.1
18.6
9.8
8.3
17.7
17.8
15.8
Klein
27.2
32.2
22.6
9.0
7.5
38.7
21.6
18.6
7.5
19.9
25.4
22.4
21.1
Klein_Prob
33.9
35.7
22.7
13.8
13.3
40.2
22.4
22.3
13.9
22.6
29.9
26.9
24.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
48.9
50.5
33.4
50.3
36.1
40.9
24.7
43.1
54.0
48.2
52.2
45.9
44.1
Uncal_Temp
40.5
38.0
25.8
37.9
23.4
33.6
28.1
30.6
24.2
29.9
31.1
16.5
30.4
ECMM
00
Analogs
15.4
29.2
18.4
24.3
11.5
32.0
21.8
7.2
11.1
3.5
22.6
22.3
18.1
Klein
30.3
33.4
25.2
18.2
5.3
39.1
24.8
15.5
11.0
26.8
25.0
26.2
23.4
Klein_Prob
35.3
34.8
26.2
22.1
9.6
40.5
24.8
19.2
17.9
27.9
26.7
28.7
26.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
57.2
45.2
34.5
52.4
38.6
68.1
35.8
40.6
45.4
47.1
51.3
49.4
46.0
Uncal_Temp
49.0
41.3
30.7
47.3
29.1
44.1
29.5
28.0
20.7
28.8
30.9
26.0
34.2
ECMM
12
Analogs
12.2
29.8
19.7
25.6
7.9
27.9
22.4
11.5
8.9
3.5
21.0
22.6
17.6
Klein
30.4
30.1
23.6
17.9
4.5
35.4
19.7
16.8
9.1
26.5
22.3
26.8
21.9
Klein_Prob
36.2
32.5
25.7
22.5
6.0
36.8
19.4
20.2
16.9
29.6
25.4
29.4
25.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
60.2
50.8
39.7
55.3
40.2
46.6
39.7
42.4
46.5
52.6
51.1
51.9
48.2
Uncal_Temp
46.9
44.1
31.4
45.9
27.7
40.8
27.7
28.7
13.1
23.8
27.1
19.4
31.9
CANM
00
Analogs
20.7
29.9
16.1
9.5
6.4
34.9
19.8
15.6
11.9
5.7
18.1
21.5
17.4
Klein
30.6
24.9
25.6
10.6
4.3
37.4
19.3
15.2
11.5
25.0
25.2
22.9
21.2
Klein_Prob
36.2
28.2
26.0
13.3
7.8
38.6
20.3
16.9
18.6
26.6
28.8
26.8
24.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
14.0
23.6
15.6
6.7
6.9
35.1
19.1
10.7
12.4
7.0
18.4
22.8
15.7
Klein
24.8
22.5
24.2
5.0
-0.9
33.4
14.7
9.6
10.7
24.5
23.1
22.8
17.8
Klein_Prob
31.2
26.7
25.2
9.7
2.5
35.3
15.8
12.8
19.1
26.0
26.4
27.4
21.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
8.2
25.4
11.0
16.2
11.3
28.9
16.3
16.6
8.4
8.2
19.9
18.4
15.7
Klein
29.0
29.8
22.5
11.6
18.7
40.0
16.9
20.7
15.1
19.0
27.2
18.1
22.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
27.4
32.3
25.2
18.6
18.8
31.1
14.4
16.3
7.2
9.0
21.4
20.1
16.9
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
36.3
15.8
16.9
13.7
16.9
21.8
23.4
22.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
15.6
22.6
6.0
16.8
11.6
29.8
13.3
20.8
6.4
2.8
15.7
20.1
14.9
Klein
32.5
28.9
18.4
14.1
17.6
36.5
15.9
20.8
6.2
18.0
24.1
18.9
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
7.9
25.4
11.5
17.5
14.7
33.2
12.4
21.1
6.4
3.1
16.0
11.1
15.2
Klein
31.4
34.1
21.6
14.1
21.0
37.7
15.9
19.3
17.9
17.2
22.0
16.2
22.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
10.9
21.4
19.3
19.4
13.8
55.4
20.4
10.5
8.3
1.0
16.9
17.1
14.3
Klein
28.1
25.2
21.4
14.1
16.2
38.7
24.4
17.0
12.2
22.5
29.4
23.5
22.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
9.8
24.3
17.9
26.0
10.4
29.3
19.9
10.1
7.5
5.0
17.8
14.4
15.9
Klein
25.8
25.5
17.6
13.7
11.2
32.7
20.6
17.1
14.2
20.7
25.9
22.5
20.7
NNet