D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Jun 17
Jul 17
Aug 17
Sep 17
Oct 17
Nov 17
Dec 17
Jan 18
Feb 18
Mar 18
Apr 18
May 18
Official
xx
All
30.9
36.4
29.1
59.8
50.3
37.5
46.4
37.5
45.7
34.2
43.7
58.0
43.0
ExpAuto
xx
All
36.1
44.5
51.9
38.0
52.4
37.6
52.2
39.5
50.5
33.5
42.3
60.1
44.6
Auto
xx
All
36.1
37.2
31.4
61.7
52.4
37.4
52.2
39.4
76.2
33.0
42.0
56.0
47.5
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
15.1
9.5
12.7
8.8
25.5
11.7
19.9
10.0
28.0
17.0
17.2
12.9
16.0
Klein
17.6
20.4
14.8
28.5
31.1
22.1
8.5
11.4
37.7
22.0
19.5
10.7
20.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
18.5
9.6
13.7
10.7
33.3
9.4
21.4
6.4
34.0
17.7
19.6
8.1
17.0
Klein
19.3
18.6
16.4
28.2
33.3
24.5
11.0
10.4
39.2
22.8
19.9
9.2
21.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
18.7
9.6
16.3
10.4
23.6
13.5
18.0
2.3
26.7
10.6
18.5
6.1
14.5
Klein
14.5
19.2
18.0
28.3
29.3
19.6
6.8
4.5
35.9
19.0
21.6
8.0
18.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
19.6
10.0
13.8
9.6
24.6
12.8
19.1
8.6
24.1
12.7
23.1
7.7
15.5
Klein
16.7
19.7
15.8
27.6
28.3
20.0
6.6
7.3
32.7
16.0
25.9
10.2
18.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
17.6
8.9
13.8
8.0
29.5
10.5
20.8
5.8
27.7
15.1
18.6
9.8
15.7
Klein
17.5
19.2
15.7
27.2
32.2
22.6
9.0
7.5
38.7
21.6
18.6
7.5
19.9
Klein_Prob
21.7
23.0
18.8
33.9
35.7
22.7
13.8
13.3
40.2
22.4
22.3
13.9
23.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
32.7
40.3
35.0
48.9
50.5
33.4
50.3
36.1
40.9
24.7
43.1
54.0
41.1
Uncal_Temp
22.2
27.7
19.2
40.5
38.0
25.8
37.9
23.4
33.6
28.1
30.6
24.2
29.2
ECMM
00
Analogs
16.1
13.8
12.8
15.4
29.2
18.4
24.3
11.5
32.0
21.8
7.2
11.1
17.8
Klein
20.6
16.2
18.2
30.3
33.4
25.2
18.2
5.3
39.1
24.8
15.5
11.0
21.5
Klein_Prob
23.3
18.4
18.6
35.3
34.8
26.2
22.1
9.6
40.5
24.8
19.2
17.9
24.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
35.1
39.9
33.8
57.2
45.2
34.5
52.4
38.6
68.1
35.8
40.6
45.4
43.6
Uncal_Temp
19.1
21.9
14.7
49.0
41.3
30.7
47.3
29.1
44.1
29.5
28.0
20.7
31.4
ECMM
12
Analogs
18.5
10.7
13.8
12.2
29.8
19.7
25.6
7.9
27.9
22.4
11.5
8.9
17.4
Klein
22.6
16.3
20.1
30.4
30.1
23.6
17.9
4.5
35.4
19.7
16.8
9.1
20.6
Klein_Prob
25.2
19.4
20.4
36.2
32.5
25.7
22.5
6.0
36.8
19.4
20.2
16.9
23.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
37.5
42.0
37.1
60.2
50.8
39.7
55.3
40.2
46.6
39.7
42.4
46.5
45.1
Uncal_Temp
14.9
14.2
14.9
46.9
44.1
31.4
45.9
27.7
40.8
27.7
28.7
13.1
29.1
CANM
00
Analogs
21.3
8.4
12.2
20.7
29.9
16.1
9.5
6.4
34.9
19.8
15.6
11.9
17.4
Klein
18.7
14.0
16.5
30.6
24.9
25.6
10.6
4.3
37.4
19.3
15.2
11.5
19.2
Klein_Prob
21.7
16.5
18.1
36.2
28.2
26.0
13.3
7.8
38.6
20.3
16.9
18.6
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
19.6
10.2
12.2
14.0
23.6
15.6
6.7
6.9
35.1
19.1
10.7
12.4
15.6
Klein
17.0
15.2
16.4
24.8
22.5
24.2
5.0
-0.9
33.4
14.7
9.6
10.7
16.1
Klein_Prob
18.6
17.1
20.1
31.2
26.7
25.2
9.7
2.5
35.3
15.8
12.8
19.1
19.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
16.8
8.2
13.4
8.2
25.4
11.0
16.2
11.3
28.9
16.3
16.6
8.4
15.2
Klein
14.8
15.7
15.7
29.0
29.8
22.5
11.6
18.7
40.0
16.9
20.7
15.1
20.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
17.9
15.5
15.4
27.4
32.3
25.2
18.6
18.8
31.1
14.4
16.3
7.2
16.4
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
36.3
15.8
16.9
13.7
21.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
16.2
6.8
10.2
15.6
22.6
6.0
16.8
11.6
29.8
13.3
20.8
6.4
14.7
Klein
16.6
16.7
17.5
32.5
28.9
18.4
14.1
17.6
36.5
15.9
20.8
6.2
20.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
15.9
7.6
11.7
7.9
25.4
11.5
17.5
14.7
33.2
12.4
21.1
6.4
15.5
Klein
14.1
16.2
17.6
31.4
34.1
21.6
14.1
21.0
37.7
15.9
19.3
17.9
21.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
17.0
12.6
11.6
10.9
21.4
19.3
19.4
13.8
55.4
20.4
10.5
8.3
17.2
Klein
22.7
13.6
14.8
28.1
25.2
21.4
14.1
16.2
38.7
24.4
17.0
12.2
20.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
15.7
11.3
11.6
9.8
24.3
17.9
26.0
10.4
29.3
19.9
10.1
7.5
16.0
Klein
20.3
16.0
18.2
25.8
25.5
17.6
13.7
11.2
32.7
20.6
17.1
14.2
19.5
NNet