D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Dec 17
Jan 18
Feb 18
Mar 18
Apr 18
May 18
Jun 18
Jul 18
Aug 18
Sep 18
Oct 18
Nov 18
Official
xx
All
46.4
37.5
45.7
34.2
43.7
58.0
40.9
46.1
42.3
52.7
52.0
35.9
45.3
ExpAuto
xx
All
52.2
39.5
50.5
33.5
42.3
60.1
41.0
46.2
44.2
51.3
50.7
36.2
46.0
Auto
xx
All
52.2
39.4
76.2
33.0
42.0
56.0
40.3
46.6
41.7
51.2
51.8
36.2
45.8
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
19.9
10.0
28.0
17.0
17.2
12.9
7.7
18.4
17.3
9.4
29.5
28.1
18.0
Klein
8.5
11.4
37.7
22.0
19.5
10.7
20.3
24.6
22.1
19.6
20.4
17.8
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
21.4
6.4
34.0
17.7
19.6
8.1
5.6
21.1
19.8
7.5
29.7
32.3
18.4
Klein
11.0
10.4
39.2
22.8
19.9
9.2
19.4
26.3
23.0
20.6
21.4
19.1
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
18.0
2.3
26.7
10.6
18.5
6.1
10.3
16.6
19.5
4.6
22.9
27.7
14.9
Klein
6.8
4.5
35.9
19.0
21.6
8.0
17.5
23.5
21.3
19.9
16.7
15.2
17.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
19.1
8.6
24.1
12.7
23.1
7.7
6.9
14.0
17.3
8.5
29.6
26.6
16.5
Klein
6.6
7.3
32.7
16.0
25.9
10.2
16.9
22.8
25.3
19.8
17.4
12.1
17.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
20.8
5.8
27.7
15.1
18.6
9.8
8.3
17.7
17.8
8.5
27.8
30.6
17.2
Klein
9.0
7.5
38.7
21.6
18.6
7.5
19.9
25.4
22.4
18.7
19.9
16.5
18.6
Klein_Prob
13.8
13.3
40.2
22.4
22.3
13.9
22.6
29.9
26.9
22.3
25.9
17.9
22.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
50.3
36.1
40.9
24.7
43.1
54.0
48.2
52.2
45.9
51.1
52.6
39.4
44.8
Uncal_Temp
37.9
23.4
33.6
28.1
30.6
24.2
29.9
31.1
16.5
31.5
45.6
35.0
31.0
ECMM
00
Analogs
24.3
11.5
32.0
21.8
7.2
11.1
3.5
22.6
22.3
16.9
22.1
17.4
17.4
Klein
18.2
5.3
39.1
24.8
15.5
11.0
26.8
25.0
26.2
22.8
23.9
11.0
20.5
Klein_Prob
22.1
9.6
40.5
24.8
19.2
17.9
27.9
26.7
28.7
27.1
28.3
10.0
23.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
52.4
38.6
68.1
35.8
40.6
45.4
47.1
51.3
49.4
58.3
50.5
38.8
46.9
Uncal_Temp
47.3
29.1
44.1
29.5
28.0
20.7
28.8
30.9
26.0
43.9
44.7
34.9
34.4
ECMM
12
Analogs
25.6
7.9
27.9
22.4
11.5
8.9
3.5
21.0
22.6
15.1
20.2
22.5
17.3
Klein
17.9
4.5
35.4
19.7
16.8
9.1
26.5
22.3
26.8
22.6
19.9
11.0
19.1
Klein_Prob
22.5
6.0
36.8
19.4
20.2
16.9
29.6
25.4
29.4
26.4
24.9
10.4
22.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
55.3
40.2
46.6
39.7
42.4
46.5
52.6
51.1
51.9
57.9
50.2
42.1
48.1
Uncal_Temp
45.9
27.7
40.8
27.7
28.7
13.1
23.8
27.1
19.4
39.4
40.9
37.8
31.5
CANM
00
Analogs
9.5
6.4
34.9
19.8
15.6
11.9
5.7
18.1
21.5
15.9
19.1
12.9
15.5
Klein
10.6
4.3
37.4
19.3
15.2
11.5
25.0
25.2
22.9
18.7
11.3
4.8
16.8
Klein_Prob
13.3
7.8
38.6
20.3
16.9
18.6
26.6
28.8
26.8
23.3
15.4
5.4
19.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
6.7
6.9
35.1
19.1
10.7
12.4
7.0
18.4
22.8
14.7
13.5
11.0
14.3
Klein
5.0
-0.9
33.4
14.7
9.6
10.7
24.5
23.1
22.8
17.4
5.8
2.9
13.6
Klein_Prob
9.7
2.5
35.3
15.8
12.8
19.1
26.0
26.4
27.4
21.7
9.4
3.0
16.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
16.2
11.3
28.9
16.3
16.6
8.4
8.2
19.9
18.4
3.9
28.4
21.4
16.3
Klein
11.6
18.7
40.0
16.9
20.7
15.1
19.0
27.2
18.1
14.8
19.4
12.1
19.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
18.6
18.8
31.1
14.4
16.3
7.2
9.0
21.4
20.1
10.4
27.5
20.8
17.1
Klein
 
 
36.3
15.8
16.9
13.7
16.9
21.8
23.4
18.4
19.8
12.4
19.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
16.8
11.6
29.8
13.3
20.8
6.4
2.8
15.7
20.1
8.1
22.7
20.6
15.5
Klein
14.1
17.6
36.5
15.9
20.8
6.2
18.0
24.1
18.9
19.6
17.3
13.0
18.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
17.5
14.7
33.2
12.4
21.1
6.4
3.1
16.0
11.1
6.0
25.3
17.2
15.6
Klein
14.1
21.0
37.7
15.9
19.3
17.9
17.2
22.0
16.2
17.5
18.9
12.9
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
19.4
13.8
55.4
20.4
10.5
8.3
1.0
16.9
17.1
13.2
19.9
23.8
15.7
Klein
14.1
16.2
38.7
24.4
17.0
12.2
22.5
29.4
23.5
18.4
19.3
8.3
20.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
26.0
10.4
29.3
19.9
10.1
7.5
5.0
17.8
14.4
9.9
19.1
22.2
15.8
Klein
13.7
11.2
32.7
20.6
17.1
14.2
20.7
25.9
22.5
20.5
16.9
9.2
18.8
NNet