Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

Text Discussions
   90day Prognostic
   30day Prognostic
   Hawaiian
   Tools


More Outlooks
    0.5mn JJA 2016
    1.5mn JAS 2016
    2.5mn ASO 2016
    3.5mn SON 2016
    4.5mn OND 2016
    5.5mn NDJ 2016
    6.5mn DJF 2016
    7.5mn JFM 2017
    8.5mn FMA 2017
    9.5mn MAM 2017
   10.5mn AMJ 2017
   11.5mn MJJ 2017
   12.5mn JJA 2017
    0.5mn Jun 2016


Tools Used (see Discussion for explanation)
   CCA
   OCN
   CMP
   SMT
   POE
 
HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2016

THE JUNE 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE, STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND CLIMATE LINKAGES TO SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A DIMINISHING ROLE IN CLIMATE ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A
MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE MJO STRENGTHENED DURING MID-MAY, ITS EFFECTS ON THE
EXTRATROPICS ARE LESS IMPACTFUL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE
EVOLVING MJO ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON MAY 31.

THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS DEPICT INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S., WHILE SOIL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON JUNE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A
LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO, MUCH OF
NEBRASKA, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS ARE BASED ON THIS ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE AND ARE ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE CALIBRATED NMME TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE SPATIAL PATTERN FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS.

A CONSENSUS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FEATURES ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, LOWER
TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE CALIBRATED NMME
PRECIPITATION TOOL INDICATES THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT WITH MODEST PROBABILITIES, INCLUDE THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST.  A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS BASED ON THE
CFS MODEL FOR JUNE ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MODEL FOR WEEKS 3 AND
4, WHICH COVERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON A MONTHLY TIME SCALE.

THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA, AND
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING MORE
THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A RELATIVELY WET
JUNE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.


FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUN WILL BE ISSUED ON TUE MAY 31 2016


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

$$

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: January 17, 2006
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Career Opportunities