PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2009

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN CURRENTLY AVERAGE AROUND 0.5C ABOVE ZERO FROM
ABOUT 160E TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THERE IS A RESERVOIR OF
MODERATELY (1 TO 2 AND LOCALLY 3 CENTIGRADE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE)
WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE ALONG THE EQUATOR, SLOPING UPWARD FROM
A DEPTH OF ABOUT 150 METERS AT 160E, TO VERY NEAR THE SURFACE AT THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. PRESENTLY WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
MAY ENHANCE WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EL NINO IN THE MAKING. ENSO-NEUTRAL
OR BORDERLINE WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JULY. ENSO COMPOSITES
ARE NOT USED FOR JULY. THE LONG LEAD OUTLOOK PRIMARILY REFLECTED
LONG LEAD MONTHLY STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING THE TREND OCN, CCA,
SMLR, AND CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE ON SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES. IN ADDITION, 
LOCAL SSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE CFS DYNAMICAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION PREDICTIONS WERE USED. AT ZERO LEAD - JUNE 30 2009, 
THE CAS, CFS, HPC 5-DAY QPF AND VARIOUS RENDITIONS OF THE GFS WEEK 1 AND 
WEEK 2 HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE UPDATE.

SSTS NEAR HAWAII AND THE US WEST COAST HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR-NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BUT NEAR ALASKA COLD SST ANOMALIES
PERSIST. ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SST HAS INCREASED
AS WELL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
LOW FREQUENCY WEATHER PATTERN PERCEIVED TO BE IN PLACE, THE LONG LEAD
TOOLS AND THE GFS WEEK 1 AND WEEK 2 PREDICTIONS. WE MADE SOME RADICAL
CHANGES, THE COLD IN THE SOUTHEAST WAS REMOVED, THE WARMTH IN THE WEST
REDUCED, AND A NEW AREA OF COLD WAS INTRODUCED IN THE NORTHEAST. THE
PRECIPITATION AMENDMENTS ARE PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF RAINS EXPECTED IN
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING MONTH.

THE JULY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 
IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND ALSO IN TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRIP OF
SOUTHERN WARMTH IS INTERRUPTED BY EQUAL CHANCES FOR EACH OF THE THREE CATEGORIES 
IN NEW MEXICO WHERE MONSOONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED. 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND.

THE JULY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA AND IN NEW ENGLAND, AS WELL AS A STRIP 
FROM NEW MEXICO, VIA COLORADO AND KANSAS TO MISSOURI, PLUS PORTIONS OF 
ADJACENT STATES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ONLY IN THE NORTHWEST.

AS FOR ALASKA, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
STATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA.


OLD PMD WRITTEN MID JUNE IS BELOW

THE JULY MONTHLY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CFS -
COLD ALMOST EVERYWHERE - ALL TOOLS ARE IN AGREEMENT AND PROBABILITIES
ARE QUITE HIGH FOR A PERIOD AS SHORT AS ONE MONTH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COAST EXCEPTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHICH
IS EC. THIS IS BASED ON A VARIETY OF TOOLS, INCLUDING SOIL MOISTURE,
WITH OCN (TREND) AS THE NOTEWORTHY OVERRULED EXCEPTION.

PRECIPITATION IS MORE VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE WARM SEASON,
AND THEREFORE MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS
AMONG FORECAST TOOLS FOR AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. OCN AND CCA INDICATE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS
OF OREGON, WASHINGTON, IDAHO AND MONTANA. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING ALASKA,
THERE IS MUCH LESS CONSENSUS, AND EVEN SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST
TOOLS ON PRECIPITATION.  FOR THIS REASON, THOSE AREAS ARE INCLUDED
IN THE EQUAL CHANCES FORECAST AREA ON THE MAP.

FORECASTER: HUUG VAN DE DOOL

NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL 
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR AUGUST 2009...WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 16 2009

THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.

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