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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2016

A REVIEW OF TROPICAL SEASONAL AND INTRASEASONAL CLIMATE CONDITIONS DURING EARLY
TO MID SEPTEMBER INDICATE CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS AND INCOHERENT MJO
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE, THEY REMAIN GENERALLY WEAKLY SO
ACROSS SUBSTANTIAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF EQUATORIAL
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OCEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES TO A DEPTH OF 300 METERS) HAVE
SLOWLY DECREASED SINCE MAY. ALTHOUGH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IS INDICATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, SUBSTANTIAL LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ANOMALIES, CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA, ARE LACKING. IN ADDITION TO THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF FORECASTS OF NINO3.4 SST HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FOR THE AUTUMN AND WINTER MONTHS AND THE ODDS
FOR LA NINA HAVE DECREASED. THE LA NINA WATCH IS NO LONGER IN PLACE AND
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH OCTOBER.

MJO INDICES (CPC VELOCITY POTENTIAL AND RMM) INDICATE NO APPRECIABLE COHERENT
MJO ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST MONTH AND FORECASTS DO NOT DEPICT CLEAR, LONG TERM
STRENGTHENING AT THE CURRENT TIME AND THE MJO DID NOT PLAY A ROLE IN THE
HALF-MONTH-LEAD OCTOBER OUTLOOK.

THE OCTOBER 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH STATISTICAL BASED TOOLS WERE
UTILIZED AS WELL INCLUDING THOSE TARGETING AUTUMN SEASON LONGER TERM TRENDS.
COASTAL SST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN THE OUTLOOK PRIMARILY
FOR AREAS NEAR ALASKA AND NEW ENGLAND.

THE OCTOBER TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THERE IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH AS
DEPICTED ON THE OUTLOOK MAP FROM THE NMME AND IMME MODEL SUITE WHICH INCLUDES
THE CFS AND ECMWF MODELING SYSTEMS, AMONG SEVERAL OTHER PARTICIPANT MODELS. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE LARGEST FOR AREAS IN
ALASKA, THE SOUTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. STRONGLY ABOVE NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA AND LONG TERM TRENDS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
INCREASE ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. STRONGLY POSITIVE
LONG TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCREASE PROBABILITIES
FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NEW ENGLAND.

AVAILABLE WEEK 3-4 SPECIFIC MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AREAS OF FAVORED NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN GENERAL ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE CONUS IN EARLY OCTOBER SO PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST. MOREOVER, THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SIGNALS FOR
ANOMALOUS WARMTH FROM THE NMME AND IMME DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE SUPPORT EQUAL
CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS.

THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT CAN BE HIGHLIGHTED, HOWEVER,
BASED ON THE CURRENTLY FAVORED FORECAST PATTERN. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE REGION. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS
TIME SCALES FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FAVORED BY THE MONTHLY CFS FORECAST AND POTENTIAL TROUGHING
ACROSS AREAS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IS THE REASON FOR ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DEPICTED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE,
NEAR OR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED IN REMAINING AREAS.


FORECASTER: JON GOTTSCHALCK


THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.



AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR OCT WILL BE ISSUED ON FRI SEPTEMBER 30 2016


THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.

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