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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

THE CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC STATE INDICATES THAT A TRANSITION FROM
ENSO-NEUTRAL TO LA NINA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.
THE LATEST CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA CONDITIONS
INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT BY ASO WITH PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA PERSISTING ABOVE
70 PERCENT THROUGH THE 2016-17 WINTER.

THE JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2016 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST THE FORECAST DOMAIN,
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TEMPERED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE JAS 2016 PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF ALASKA, THE GREAT
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GULF COAST, AND MUCH OF FLORIDA, WHILE
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.

DURING THE FALL AND WINTER 2016-17, THE TYPICAL RESPONSE TO LA NINA IS WEIGHED
MORE HEAVILY IN CREATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. A SLIGHT
TILT IN THE ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. BY NEXT WINTER. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER, WITH THE CHANCES
FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THIS SAME REGION.

EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE FORECAST IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEASONAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES OR SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

PACIFIC SSTS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE ALONG THE EQUATOR, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC. THE MOST RECENT ONI
VALUE (MARCH-MAY 2016) IS 1.1 DEGREES C, WHILE THE LATEST WEEKLY NINO 3.4 VALUE
CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND IS AT 0.1 DEGREE C. A LARGE RESERVOIR OF ANOMALOUSLY
COLD SUBSURFACE WATERS EXTEND FROM 50 TO 150 METERS BELOW THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES (MORE THAN 2 DEGREES C) PRESENT AT 100 METERS BELOW
THE SURFACE FROM 130 TO 150 DEGREES W. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION DIMINISHED OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, ENHANCED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE SPCZ DURING THE
PAST 30 DAYS. TRADE WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR AVERAGE DURING THE PAST MONTH, WHILE
THE ANOMALOUS 200-HPA WESTERLIES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. ANOMALOUS INTEGRATED (0-300 METERS DEPTH) EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT BECAME NEGATIVE IN MARCH AND REMAINS BELOW-AVERAGE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF JUNE. THIS EXPANSE OF NEGATIVE HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES CONTINUES TO
FAVOR A RAPID TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING 2016.
THE EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF
THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS SOUTH OF ALASKA AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST. POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE
EAST COAST CONTINUE TO PERSIST. ANOMALOUSLY COLD SSTS REMAIN IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC POLEWARD OF 30 N, WHILE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF
MEXICO.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES TO FORECAST WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS BY SON
WITH AMPLITUDE PEAKING JUST BELOW -0.5 DEGREES C IN NDJ. PREDICTIONS FROM THE
NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AVERAGING NEAR -0.5 C FROM LATE SUMMER THROUGH THE END
OF THE YEAR. THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST INDICATES THAT LA NINA IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED BY JJA 2016 WITH THE CHANCES OF LA NINA NEAR 75 PERCENT DURING THE FALL
AND WINTER 2016-17.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED FOR THE JAS OUTLOOKS SINCE HIGH SOIL
MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TEXAS. THE TRANSITION TO LA NINA CONDITIONS AND THOSE POTENTIAL EFFECTS
ARE CONSIDERED PRIMARILY BEGINNING IN ASO 2016 AND THROUGHOUT THE AUTUMN AND
WINTER MONTHS. CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME THROUGH NDJ
2016-17, A SST-BASED CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE, AND STATISTICAL TOOLS (INCLUDING
ENSO EFFECTS AND TRENDS) ARE ALL USED IN CREATING THE OUTLOOKS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JAS 2016 TO JAS 2017

TEMPERATURE

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS THIS MONTH ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE RELEASED THE
PREVIOUS MONTH SINCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA DEVELOPING REMAINS THE SAME.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
FOR THE JAS OUTLOOK AS THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS DUE TO HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEBRASKA SOUTH TO TEXAS. EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR EAST TEXAS WHERE
SOIL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RANKS IN THE HIGHEST 99TH PERCENTILE. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SHORT-TERM DRYNESS AND
DROUGHT IS EXPANDING. ALSO, A DRY SIGNAL IS APPARENT AMONG SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE CFS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING JAS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA,
AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SSTS REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL.

BEGINNING WITH THE OND OUTLOOK, EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH THIS AREA EXPANDING
IN THE NDJ OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF LA NINA. ALTHOUGH
LA NINA TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES BEGIN TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING NDJ, A STRONG AND CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THROUGH THIS SEASON
ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES. DURING DJF 2016-17, A SLIGHT TILT IN
THE ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS, AS LA NINA TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES HAVE A STRONGER SIGNAL. THE AREA FOR
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING JFM 2017, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA TEMPERATURE
COMPOSITES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND LA NINA INFLUENCES IN LATER LEADS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
FOR ALASKA IS BASED ON THE INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM LA NINA DURING THE LATE
FALL AND WINTER. AN EXPECTED LACK OF SEA ICE ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE FALL SEASON. THE TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN IS BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONSOLIDATION AT
THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.

PRECIPITATION

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
THROUGH NDJ, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM LA NINA. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS MONTH'S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JAS, ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BASED ON IMPROVED
AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR JAS AND ASO 2016, BASED ON CALIBRATED GUIDANCE FROM THE
NMME. A POTENTIAL INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPING LA NINA AND STATISTICAL FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUPPORT A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA DURING JAS AND ASO 2016. NO CLEAR
SIGNAL EXISTS AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS WITH MONSOON RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING JAS 2016. THEREFORE, EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS FOR JAS AND ASO 2016.
DURING SON 2016, THE BROAD AREA OF INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ON THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IS SEPARATED INTO TWO SEPARATE AREAS
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

DURING THE FALL AND WINTER OF 2016-17, THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM LA NINA
CONDITIONS ARE THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE FAVORED AREAS OF ABOVE OR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE FORECAST
PROBABILITIES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE, SINCE THE ENSO
FORECAST REMAINS STABLE.

AT THE LONGER LEADS, MJJ THROUGH JAS 2017, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR NEW ENGLAND IS RELATED TO LONG-TERM TRENDS. ALSO, THE FAVORED
AREA FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FOR JAS 2017
IS BASED ON TRENDS.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.

FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON JUL 21 2016


1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011
FORECAST RELEASE.
$$

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