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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR DECEMBER 2009
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 20.29 INCHES (67 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 9.25 INCHES (70 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 9.78 INCHES (71 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 96.66 INCHES (96 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP TOOLS PREDICT BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR DECEMBER 2009. NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FOR DECEMBER 2009.
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| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | A40 | 72.4 | 0.5 | | B40 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 12.0 | | KAHULUI | EC | 73.6 | 0.5 | | B40 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | | HONOLULU | EC | 74.5 | 0.7 | | B40 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.9 | | LIHUE | B40 | 73.2 | 0.5 | | B40 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 4.7 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR DJF 2009 TO DJF 2010 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. EL NINO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE OCTOBER 2009 - SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE AT LEAST 1 DEGREE C ABOVE-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES ALSO INCREASED DURING THE MONTH. THE MOST RECENT PERIOD OF SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES SHOW A CONTINUED EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC NEAR 50 -150M DEPTH. LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES STRENGTHENED OVER MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE PATTERN OF TROPICAL CONVECTION ALSO REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH EL NIŅO - WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WILL LAST THROUGH MARCH-MAY 2010. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF WARM EPISODES - DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE WINTER.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO MAM 2010. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IS EXPECTED FROM DJF TO MAM 2010 BASED ON THE EL NINO COMPOSITE AND NCEP FORECST TOOLS. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | DJF 2009 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | B40 | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 71.8 | 0.4 | | B40 | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 72.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2010 | B40 | 72.8 | 0.5 | | B40 | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2010 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2010 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.5 | 0.5 | | B40 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.5 | | B40 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 73.2 | 0.5 | | B40 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2010 | B40 | 74.4 | 0.6 | | B40 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 78.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2010 | EC | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 72.5 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 73.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 73.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 74.5 | 0.4 | | B40 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2010 | B40 | 76.0 | 0.4 | | B40 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 81.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2010 | EC | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2010 | EC | 77.3 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | DJF 2009 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2010 | B40 | 72.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2010 | B40 | 73.1 | 0.4 | | B40 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2010 | B40 | 74.4 | 0.4 | | B40 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2010 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2010 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2010 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2010 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2010 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2010 | EC | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2010 | EC | 75.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2010 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2010 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 17, 2009
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