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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made April 20, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday April 23, 2015 to Monday May 04, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 20 2015

Synopsis: A strong area of upper-level low pressure is expected to persist across southeast Canada during the next week, while a couple of low pressure systems progress across the western U.S. Surface high pressure is forecast to extend south from Canada into the Midwest from Thursday through early next week. A broad area of low pressure is expected to remain over the Gulf of Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday April 23 - Monday April 27: Cyclonic flow associated with the anomalous upper-level trough centered over southeast Canada is likely to result in below-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Subfreezing temperatures are forecast across the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast, but these temperatures are not too anomalous (10 degrees F or less below-normal) for late April.

A shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Four Corners region later this week and then weaken as it encounters confluent flow across the eastern U.S. High-elevation snow (above 8-9,000 feet) is expected to accompany the shortwave trough across the central Rockies. Since the shortwave trough is expected to be progressive, a heavy snow hazard is not posted for this region. High winds (gusts above 40 knots) are expected from the desert Southwest east to the southern high Plains on Thursday and Friday. These gusty winds may generate blowing dust across these areas.

On Thursday, severe weather is possible across southeast Oklahoma, the eastern half of Texas, and western Louisiana ahead of the shortwave trough ejecting from the Southwest. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer wind shear are expected to favor the development of severe weather across this region. Model divergence precludes designation of a severe weather hazard area beyond Thursday at this time.

Onshore flow is expected to increase across the Pacific Northwest during the weekend and increase the chances for heavy rain and high elevation snow across the coastal ranges of Washington and northern Oregon. Since the high resolution models indicate 2 to 6 inches of precipitation, liquid equivalent, for these areas, a heavy precipitation hazard is posted for parts of the Oregon and Washington. Snow levels are likely to fluctuate and residents are urged to refer to the latest forecasts/statements from their local NWS offices.

Anomalous rainfall (more than 4 inches above-normal) during the past month resulted in moderate river flooding across parts of Kentucky and southeast Texas. These rivers are expected to remain in moderate flood stage through at least Friday. Minor flooding is occurring along the lower Ohio River and may reach moderate stage later this week.

No hazards are expected with the broad trough over the Gulf of Alaska with the heaviest precipitation remaining south of the Alaska Panhandle and winds likely below hazards criteria.

For Tuesday April 28 - Monday May 04: An upper-level trough is expected to persist across eastern North America early in Week-2, while onshore flow continues to affect the western U.S. This predicted longwave pattern is likely to maintain relatively cool temperatures across the eastern U.S. at the end of April. Recent high-resolution GFS model runs indicate the potential for a late frost or freeze across the southern Appalachians and mid-Atlantic on April 28-29, but the high-resolution 0Z ECMWF model is a warmer solution.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, indicates a very slight decrease (to 19.14 from 19.17) in the percentage of the CONUS in severe to exceptional drought (D2-D4). This week's map is very similar to last week's, with relatively minor adjustments made.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.