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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made February 28, 2017

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
Temperature
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Friday March 03, 2017 to Tuesday March 14, 2017

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 28 2017

Synopsis: Early in the period, a series of surface low-pressure systems are forecast to move across the northern tier of the U.S. On Mar 3, surface low pressure is expected to be over southeastern Canada as cold high pressure builds over the north-central and then northeastern parts of the nation. Surface low pressure is forecast to pass north of northeast mainland Alaska Mar 3 as its trailing cold front moves over the region Mar 4-5. Cold surface high pressure is forecast to dominate much of the rest of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians into the week-2 period.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday March 03 - Tuesday March 07: A series of low pressure systems at the surface and aloft are expected to dominate much of the northern tier of the U.S. Mar 2-5. Periods of heavy snow (in excess of 6 inches in 24 hours) are expected for parts of the Olympics and Cascades (Mar 2-4) and for parts of the Bitterroots and Northern Rockies Mar 3-5. Heavy precipitation (rainfall exceeding 2 inches in 24 hours at lower elevations, snowfall exceeding 8 inches in 24 hours at higher elevations) is anticipated for parts of Northern California and western Oregon Mar 4-5.

Low pressure passing north of mainland Alaska is expected to lead to high winds (speeds in excess of 35 knots) for parts of northeast mainland Alaska Mar 2-3. The combination of high winds, and falling or blowing snow is anticipated to cause blizzard-like conditions for part of the region. Low pressure near the Alaska Panhandle is expected to cause heavy snow (amounts in excess of 12 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the southern Alaska Panhandle Mar 2-3. The snow amounts anticipated are marginal for a heavy snow hazard, but the shape was included since snowfall is likely even at the lowest elevations. Cold high pressures is forecast to lead to periods of much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies in excess of 20 degrees F) for parts of central and southern mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle Mar 2-6.

Onshore flow is forecast to lead to precipitation near the southeast Texas coast but the heaviest rainfall is currently expected to remain offshore so no hazards are currently anticipated.

Low pressure near the Northern Plains Mar 6 may lead to wintry precipitation for parts of the region but large model spread precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time.

For Wednesday March 08 - Tuesday March 14: Riding is forecast west of Alaska with troughing expected over mainland Alaska. This flow pattern favors much below normal temperatures for much of Alaska. The GEFS reforecast probabilistic temperature tool indicates a slight risk of much below normal temperatures for much of the Alaska Panhandle, mainland Alaska, and the Aleutians Mar 7-13, a moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for most of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians Mar 7-11, and a high risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of southern and central mainland Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula Mar 7-8.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor valid on February 21, severe drought is designated across parts of California, Arizona, the Great Plains, Arkansas, south Texas, and the eastern U.S. Coverage of severe, or greater intensity, drought throughout the continental U.S. remained nearly steady at 3.31 percent. California, to the north of Point Conception, is free of long-term severe drought.

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.