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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made May 30, 2016

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday June 02, 2016 to Monday June 13, 2016

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 30 2016

Synopsis: The remnants of Bonnie, currently concentrated near the coast of South Carolina (May 30), are expected to drift very slowly up the North Carolina coast during the next several days. These remnants may finally move off the mid-Atlantic coast and out to sea by the weekend, as a cold front approaches the East Coast. The southern part of this front is anticipated to stall across the deep South, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and Texas, with a wave of low pressure expected to develop along this boundary in the vicinity of the Texas coast. A ridge of high pressure aloft is forecast to contribute to much above-normal temperatures across a significant portion of the western CONUS. Relatively weak low pressure systems are predicted to influence Alaska during the Hazards period, but none are expected to bring hazardous weather conditions.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday June 02 - Monday June 06: The remnants of Bonnie are expected to slowly move northward across the eastern Carolinas over the next few days. These remnants are forecast to linger in this region until late in the week, when a cold front is predicted to approach from the west. The combination of Bonnie's remnants and the approaching front may result in areas of heavy rain (locally 1-3 inches in a 2-day period) close to the mid-Atlantic coast, from coastal Maryland to the central coast of North Carolina. However, most of the heaviest precipitation is expected to remain offshore. By Saturday, the cold front is anticipated to move off the mid-Atlantic coast and out to sea, taking the remnants of Bonnie out with it.

A stalled front across Texas is predicted to bring heavy rain (2-4 inches in a 2-day period) to much of eastern and southern Texas on Thursday and Friday, June 2-3. As this stalled front weakens, another cold front (the one noted above which is expected to push Bonnie's remnants out to sea) is forecast to stall across the deep South, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Texas. A wave of low pressure developing along the front near the Texas coast is predicted to bring locally heavy rain (1-4 inches) to the Texas coast and extreme southwest Louisiana.

Flooding is occurring, imminent, likely, or possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas during this period, due to a combination of flooding currently in progress, and the forecast of additional heavy rainfall associated with the two fronts and low pressure center noted above. Across the middle and lower Missouri River Valley, ongoing flooding is likely to be exacerbated by more precipitation expected during this period. A very small area of flooding is possible along the Minnesota-Iowa border, as depicted on the map.

Out West, much above-normal temperatures are forecast during this period, in association with ridging both aloft and at the surface. Daytime high temperatures are expected to range from 12-24 degrees above-normal across the Pacific Northwest, interior portions of northern and central California, the northern and central Intermountain Region, and the northern Rockies. For many locations, high temperatures will easily surpass 90 degrees F, and some locales in central Idaho, southern Washington, and northern Oregon may reach 100-105 degrees F. The anomalous heat is expected to gradually shift eastward with time, with Montana predicted to see its highest temperatures later in this period.

Several weak low pressure systems are predicted to affect Alaska during this period, but none are expected to bring hazardous weather conditions to the state.

For Tuesday June 07 - Monday June 13: For the first two days of this period (June 7,8), a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures is posted for northern and central portions of both the Intermountain West and Rockies, and much of the northern and central High Plains, where the GEFS reforecast tool indicates that daily maximum temperatures have at least a 20 percent chance of exceeding the 85th percentile compared to climatology. A moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures is predicted for Idaho, Montana, and much of Wyoming during this same period. This two-day period of anticipated much above-normal temperatures represents the tail end of the predicted heat wave across a significant fraction of the western CONUS, at least temporarily.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, valid on May 24, severe, or greater intensity, drought covers 3.69 percent of the U.S. Drought Monitor areas (including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico), a decrease from 4.07 percent last week. This is the lowest coverage since October 2010.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.