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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made January 16, 2017

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo HazardsNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Thursday January 19, 2017 to Monday January 30, 2017

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST January 16 2017

Synopsis: An area of upper-level pressure and enhanced onshore flow is likely to persist across the western U.S. during the next week, while multiple low pressure systems advance across the central and eastern U.S. During Week-2, a pattern change is expected with an area of upper-level high pressure developing near the West Coast. Arctic high pressure is forecast to remain centered over mainland Alaska through the weekend, while a strong surface low is expected to enter the Bering Sea by early next week.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Thursday January 19 - Monday January 23: Periods of heavy precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) for parts of the western U.S., Thu-Mon, Jan 19-23.
Periods of high winds for parts of western U.S. and southern high Plains, Thu-Mon, Jan 19-23.
Severe weather for parts of the Southeast, Sat, Jan 21.
Periods of heavy rain for parts of the southeastern U.S., Thu-Sun, Jan 19-22.
Much below-normal temperatures for parts of mainland Alaska, Thu-Sun, Jan 19-22.
High winds for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on Mon, Jan 23.
Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Fri-Mon, Jan 20-23.
Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Jan 20-21.
Flooding likely or possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest.
Flooding occurring along the middle Mississippi River.
Severe Drought across parts of the eastern and southern U.S., Great Plains, Arizona, California, and Colorado.

For Tuesday January 24 - Monday January 30: The ensemble means are in good agreement and remain consistent that a major pattern change occurs during the final week of January. An upper-level ridge is expected to build near the West Coast, resulting in a much drier pattern for the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Meanwhile, a full latitude trough is forecast to extend from Hudson Bay to the central U.S. This longwave pattern is expected to favor a trend towards more seasonal temperatures across the central and eventually the eastern U.S. later in Week-2.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on January 10, the coverage of severe or greater drought for the CONUS decreased from 8.63 to 7.96%. One to two category improvements were made to the drought areas across parts of California and Nevada from the previous week.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh

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Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.