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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made March 31, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Friday April 03, 2015 to Tuesday April 14, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 31 2015

Synopsis: At the start of the period, surface low pressure is forecast to move north of the central and eastern U.S./Canada border as its associated cold front progresses across the central and eastern U.S. A second cold front is expected to drop out of central Canada and move off the northeast coast, followed by a third cold front by the middle of the period. An area of surface low pressure is expected to move from the central Rockies to the southern Plains. Surface High pressure is anticipated to build over the Great Basin early in the period leading to offshore flow for the western U.S. Later in the period, surface high pressure is forecast to build over the central and eastern parts of the nation. Surface low pressure is anticipated to move south of the Aleutians towards the Alaska Panhandle as high pressure builds over the northern part of the state.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday April 03 - Tuesday April 07: Low pressure moving just north of the central and eastern U.S./Canada border is expected to cause high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes Apr 2. As the cold front associated with this area of low pressure moves across the east coast, high winds (in excess of 30 knots) are expected for coastal sections of the northeast and Mid-Atlantic Apr 2-4. Heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is expected along the front for parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Great Lakes, and central Appalachians Apr 2-3. The frontal system also leads to the possibility of severe weather for parts of the southern and central Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and Tennessee Valley Apr 2-3. After the front crosses the northeast U.S., snowfall is possible behind the front over western New York and interior New England but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time.

A series of cold fronts moving across the northeast CONUS leads to periods of much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies in excess of 10-15 degress F) for parts of Northern New England Apr 2 and Apr 6.

Low pressure moving from the central Rockies to the high plains is expected to cause heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the central Rockies Apr 2-3.

High pressure building over the Great Basin is expected to lead to critical fire conditions for parts of the central Great Basin, southwest, and southern and central Rockies Apr 2. These conditions are expected to shift eastward over the Plains Apr 3 but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard area at the current time. Offshore flow associated with the area of high pressure building over the Great Basin leads to high winds (in excess of 30 knots) for parts of the central and northern Califonia coasts Apr 2-5.

Late in the period, and at the start of the week 2 period, some models are indicating a potent storm to influence the Bering Sea but model spread is relatively large so no hazard areas can currently be specified.

For Wednesday April 08 - Tuesday April 14: A broadly cyclonic flow pattern is expected to dominate much of the CONUS during the period with above normal heights over the east and slightly below normal heights over the west. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal across much of the southern CONUS, while below normal temperatures are expected to persist over the northeast.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, valid March 24, indicates a very slight increase (from 16.24 to 16.97) in the percentage of land in severe drought (D2-D4).

Forecaster: Randy Schechter

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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.