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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made August 04, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
Precipitation No HazardsNot Available
TemperatureNo Hazards
SoilsNot Available

Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Friday August 07, 2015 to Tuesday August 18, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT August 04 2015

Synopsis: A low pressure center is forecast to move from North Carolina northeastward to the Gulf of Maine during the first few days of the Outlook period, with its associated cold front expected to push into the deep South. Another frontal system is anticipated to move eastward across the northern CONUS during the same time period, weakening as it approaches New England. These two systems are predicted to be the main producers of precipitation during the 3-7 day period across the contiguous U.S. Tropical storm Guillermo, currently located over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean, is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands prior to the beginning of this Outlook. A fairly large low pressure system is anticipated to affect southwestern and southern Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday August 07 - Tuesday August 11: A low pressure center moving northeastward from North Carolina to the Gulf of Maine is predicted to bring heavy rain (up to 2 inches) to the I-95 Corridor between Washington, D.C., and Boston, on Friday and Saturday. The associated cold front is forecast to push into the deep South, before stalling. The Florida panhandle may an inch of rain during the same two-day period, but this amount does not exceed hazardous criteria.

An area of excessive heat is designated across the eastern half of the southern Plains, and the lower Mississippi Valley during this period. Daily maximum heat indices are forecast to range between 105-110 degrees F. The places most likely to experience these conditions for this entire 5-day period are near the Gulf Coast.

According to the USDA Forest Service, there are about 2 dozen large wildfires in progress across the West Coast states, with the greatest concentration of wildfires in California. Most of the fires in northern and central California have burned less than 14,000 acres. However, there is a prominent exception. Just north of San Francisco (Lake County), there is a wildfire that has already burned 62,000 acres, which is a 15 percent increase from yesterday. This wildfire is only 12 percent contained at this time. Many of the wildfires near the West Coast appear to be related to stronger winds associated with a 500-hPa trough near the coast, and the presence of dry vegetative fuels in this region.

As of 5am Hawaiian Time, Tropical Storm Guillermo was located about 430 miles east of Hilo, HI, moving toward the Hawaiian archipelago. It is still a strong tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. The official track, issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, has Guillermo passing north of Hawaii as a still-potent tropical storm before the start of this period. Even though it appears that the Islands will be spared the worst of Guillermo, residents are encouraged to keep updated on the future progress of this storm by consulting local news media, and/or the CPHC at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/ until the hazard passes. In the Atlantic basin, a low pressure area with increasing thunderstorm activity and 35 mph winds (east and south of the center, over water) is currently located near Myrtle Beach, SC. Even if this system develops further, it is expected to move away from the East Coast tonight and tomorrow. Please refer to the National Weather Service and local news media for updates on this system.

A fairly large low pressure system is predicted to move eastward across the southern coast of Alaska during this period, bringing clouds and precipitation. However, at this time, no weather-related hazards are expected with this system.

For Wednesday August 12 - Tuesday August 18: By the end of the 3-7 day period, and into at least the first half of Week-2, the highest 500-hPa heights associated with the subtropical ridge are forecast to be located over the southern Great Plains region. This favors a slight risk of much above-normal temperatures across the south-central CONUS. Mid-tropospheric troughs are anticipated near the Pacific Coast, and the Atlantic Coast states.

The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map, released on July 30th, shows a slight increase in the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) across the contiguous U.S., from 16.74 percent to 17.17 percent. According to AHPS, rainfall has been below-normal during the past two weeks for most areas east of the Mississippi River, though with one significant exception. For most of the northwest quarter of the Florida peninsula, rainfall amounts have ranged from 5-8 inches above normal, and even higher in some localized areas. This is associated with a weak area of low pressure over northern Florida. In contrast, southern Florida is running a 1-3 inch rainfall deficit during the last 14 days.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa

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