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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

U.S. Hazards Outlook - Made October 09, 2015

 Days 3-7Days 8-14Prob. Days 8-14
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Categorical OutlooksDay 3-7Day 8-14
8-14 Day Probabilistic OutlooksTemperature HazardsPrecipitation Hazards

Valid Monday October 12, 2015 to Friday October 23, 2015

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 09 2015

Synopsis: *** Hazards Outlook will be updated after 3pm Eastern time today ***
An upper-level, low-pressure area is forecast to retrograde over northwest Mexico, spreading some precipitation across the Southwest with upper-level high pressure over the Rockies. A surface low is predicted to form off the coast of the southeast and potentially track along the Southeast coast before weakening next Tuesdsay. Across the northern U.S., a storm system is forecast to impact the Alaska Panhandle, while a weaker system is forecast to traverse the Northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by early next week. Week-2 is expected to be dominated by above normal mid-level heights and temperatures.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday October 12 - Friday October 16: *** Hazards Outlook will be updated after 3pm Eastern time today ***
A storm system is predicted to track across central and eastern Canada early in the period. Its trailing cold front may bring high winds to parts of the Central and Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as it sweeps across the eastern half of the CONUS. This area may experience sustained wind speeds reaching 30 knots or greater.

During Sunday and Monday, Wyoming is the area most likely to experience dry fuels, low relative humidity, and strong enough winds to near critical fire weather thresholds. Cloud cover and cold air advection are likely to limit the drop in relative humidity and the core of the higher winds is likely to be north of Wyoming, so no hazard is depicted. A 40% chance of fire weather is maintained by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for this area. There is a potential for Montana and North Dakota to also have elevated chances for wildfire risk due to very windy conditions Sunday to Monday. However, no area is included on SPC's probabilistic fire outlook at this time due to significant uncertainty regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions.

Flooding is forecast to continue across the Carolinas. Please consult the latest river stage information from the Southeast River Forecast Center at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc.

An active weather period is forecast for the Alaska Panhandle, with multiple storm systems anticipated to develop over the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutians. Another strong low is forecast to follow a similar path to hurricane Oho on Sunday, bringing heavy rain, high winds, and high significant waves to parts of the Alaska Panhandle Sunday to Monday. This area may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period (greatest likelihood is on Sunday), sustained wind speeds reaching 50 knots for outside waters, and significant wave heights of 27 feet or greater. Another surface low is predicted to track from the Aleutians to the South Coast of Alaska Tuesday to Thursday, potentially bringing another round of heavy rainfall to parts of the South Coast and Alaska Panhandle on Thursday.

For Saturday October 17 - Friday October 23: *** Hazards Outlook will be updated after 3pm Eastern time today ***
In general, the predicted mid-tropospheric height pattern for week 2 favors a weak ridge over western North America, and a weak trough across eastern North America. The anticipated pattern favors the delivery of relatively mild Pacific air across much of the entire CONUS during week 2. Other than long-term drought, no specific hazards can be confidently predicted at this time.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, issued on October 8, the coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) increased from 20.09 to 21.45 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous week.

Forecaster: Anthony Artusa


Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts

Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.