Valid Friday April 03, 2015 to Tuesday April 14, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT March 31 2015Synopsis
: At the start of the period, surface
low pressure is forecast to move north of the central and eastern U.S./Canada
border as its associated cold front progresses across the central and eastern
U.S. A second cold front is expected to drop out of central Canada and move off
the northeast coast, followed by a third cold front by the middle of the
period. An area of surface low pressure is expected to move from the central
Rockies to the southern Plains. Surface High pressure is anticipated to build
over the Great Basin early in the period leading to offshore flow for the
western U.S. Later in the period, surface high pressure is forecast to build
over the central and eastern parts of the nation. Surface low pressure is
anticipated to move south of the Aleutians towards the Alaska Panhandle as high
pressure builds over the northern part of the state. Hazards
Detailed Summary For Friday April 03
- Tuesday April 07:
- Severe weather for parts of the southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys, Fri, Apr 3.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and southern and
central Appalachians, Fri, Apr 3.
- High winds for parts of the east coast, Fri-Sun, Apr 3-5.
- High winds for parts of the central and northern California coasts,
Fri-Sat, Apr 3-4.
- Heavy snow for parts of the Great Lakes, central Appalchians, and interior
northeast states, Sat, Apr 4.
- Much below normal temperatures for parts of northern Maine, Sun-Mon, Apr
- Slight chance of much below normal temperatures for parts of the northeast,
Wed-Fri, Apr 8-10.
- Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Great
Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and southern Florida.
Low pressure moving just north of the central and
eastern U.S./Canada border is expected to cause high winds (in excess of 30
knots) for parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great
Lakes Apr 2. As the cold front associated with this area of low pressure moves
across the east coast, high winds (in excess of 30 knots) are expected for
coastal sections of the northeast and Mid-Atlantic Apr 2-4. Heavy rain (in
excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) is expected along the front for parts of the
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Great Lakes,
and central Appalachians Apr 2-3. The frontal system also leads to the
possibility of severe weather for parts of the southern and central Plains,
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and Tennessee Valley Apr 2-3. After the
front crosses the northeast U.S., snowfall is possible behind the front over
western New York and interior New England but model uncertainty precludes the
specification of a hazard shape at the current time.
A series of cold fronts moving across the northeast CONUS leads to periods
of much below normal temperatures (negative anomalies in excess of 10-15
degress F) for parts of Northern New England Apr 2 and Apr 6.
Low pressure moving from the central Rockies to the high plains is expected
to cause heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours) for parts of the
central Rockies Apr 2-3.
High pressure building over the Great Basin is expected to lead to critical
fire conditions for parts of the central Great Basin, southwest, and southern
and central Rockies Apr 2. These conditions are expected to shift eastward over
the Plains Apr 3 but model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard
area at the current time. Offshore flow associated with the area of high
pressure building over the Great Basin leads to high winds (in excess of 30
knots) for parts of the central and northern Califonia coasts Apr 2-5.
Late in the period, and at the start of the week 2 period, some models are
indicating a potent storm to influence the Bering Sea but model spread is
relatively large so no hazard areas can currently be specified. For Wednesday
April 08 - Tuesday April 14:
A broadly cyclonic flow pattern is expected
to dominate much of the CONUS during the period with above normal heights over
the east and slightly below normal heights over the west. Temperatures are
forecast to be above normal across much of the southern CONUS, while below
normal temperatures are expected to persist over the northeast.
The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, valid March 24, indicates a very
slight increase (from 16.24 to 16.97) in the percentage of land in severe
Forecaster: Randy Schechter
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Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.