Valid Monday October 12, 2015 to Friday October 23, 2015
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
EDT October 09 2015Synopsis
: *** Hazards Outlook will be updated
after 3pm Eastern time today ***
An upper-level, low-pressure area is forecast to retrograde over northwest
Mexico, spreading some precipitation across the Southwest with upper-level high
pressure over the Rockies. A surface low is predicted to form off the coast of
the southeast and potentially track along the Southeast coast before weakening
next Tuesdsay. Across the northern U.S., a storm system is forecast to impact
the Alaska Panhandle, while a weaker system is forecast to traverse the
Northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by early next week. Week-2 is expected to
be dominated by above normal mid-level heights and temperatures.
Summary For Monday October 12 - Friday October
- *** Hazards Outlook will be updated after 3pm
Eastern time today ***
- High winds for parts of the Central and Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley, Sun-Mon, Oct 11-12.
- Flooding likely and ongoing in the Carolinas, Sun-Mon, Oct 11-12.
- Heavy rain for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun-Mon, Oct 11-12.
- High winds for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun-Mon, Oct 11-12.
- High significant waves near the Alaska Panhandle, Sun-Mon, Oct 11-12.
- Heavy rain for parts of the South Coast of Alaska and Alaska Panhandle,
Thu, Oct 15.
- Severe drought for parts of the western third of the CONUS, Lower
Mississippi Valley, Oklahoma, and Texas.
*** Hazards Outlook will be updated after 3pm Eastern time today ***
A storm system is predicted to track across central and eastern Canada
early in the period. Its trailing cold front may bring high winds to parts of
the Central and Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as it sweeps
across the eastern half of the CONUS. This area may experience sustained wind
speeds reaching 30 knots or greater.
During Sunday and Monday, Wyoming is the area most likely to experience dry
fuels, low relative humidity, and strong enough winds to near critical fire
weather thresholds. Cloud cover and cold air advection are likely to limit the
drop in relative humidity and the core of the higher winds is likely to be
north of Wyoming, so no hazard is depicted. A 40% chance of fire weather is
maintained by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for this area. There is a
potential for Montana and North Dakota to also have elevated chances for
wildfire risk due to very windy conditions Sunday to Monday. However, no area
is included on SPC's probabilistic fire outlook at this time due to significant
uncertainty regarding the overlap of dry and windy conditions.
Flooding is forecast to continue across the Carolinas. Please consult the
latest river stage information from the Southeast River Forecast Center at
An active weather period is forecast for the Alaska Panhandle, with
multiple storm systems anticipated to develop over the Gulf of Alaska and
Aleutians. Another strong low is forecast to follow a similar path to hurricane
Oho on Sunday, bringing heavy rain, high winds, and high significant waves to
parts of the Alaska Panhandle Sunday to Monday. This area may receive up to 2
inches of rainfall or greater in a 24-hour period (greatest likelihood is on
Sunday), sustained wind speeds reaching 50 knots for outside waters, and
significant wave heights of 27 feet or greater. Another surface low is
predicted to track from the Aleutians to the South Coast of Alaska Tuesday to
Thursday, potentially bringing another round of heavy rainfall to parts of the
South Coast and Alaska Panhandle on Thursday. For Saturday October 17 - Friday
*** Hazards Outlook will be updated after 3pm Eastern time
In general, the predicted mid-tropospheric height pattern for week 2 favors
a weak ridge over western North America, and a weak trough across eastern North
America. The anticipated pattern favors the delivery of relatively mild Pacific
air across much of the entire CONUS during week 2. Other than long-term
drought, no specific hazards can be confidently predicted at this time.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor map, issued on October 8, the
coverage of severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4) increased from 20.09 to
21.45 percent across the contiguous U.S. since the previous
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
Click here to see a display of the GFS Ensemble Forecasts
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.