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As of the May 19th, 2017, release, Week 3-4 outlooks precipitation outlooks are experimental, whereas the temperature outlooks are operational. Both are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Week 3-4 Outlooks

Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 24 Nov 2018 to 07 Dec 2018
Updated: 09 Nov 2018

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Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Nov 09 2018

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Nov 24 2018-Fri Dec 07 2018

ENSO-neutral conditions continue across the equatorial Pacific, but above-normal SSTs and ample heat content in the upper-oceanic column reflect a continued likely transition towards El Nino during the boreal winter months. Additionally, robust MJO activity is present, with the enhanced phase presently over the Indian Ocean resulting in widespread convection and tropical cyclone activity in this basin. The suppressed phase of the MJO is currently destructively interfering with the evolving Pacific low-frequency signal, and there is uncertainty regarding the future evolution of the MJO. Given the robust amplitude of the current event, however, downstream impacts to the midlatitude pattern are possible. These tropical-extratropical teleconnections are well captured in the latest runs of the MLR statistical tool.

Dynamical model forecasts of the 500mb height anomaly pattern during Weeks 3-4 depict a wide range of solutions, with the CFS and JMA projecting a ridge over eastern Canada and the Northeast, while the ECMWF maintains a more zonal pattern. The CFS, JMA, and ECMWF all depict troughing along or just west of the West Coast, with positive height anomalies near or south of the Aleutians. While there is inconsistency among the tools in their depiction of the overall hemispheric pattern, each model shows the bulk of cold Arctic air remaining entrenched over Canada during the period.

The temperature forecast is a blend of the dynamical model guidance, including the experimental SubX multi-model ensemble, and statistical tools that take the ENSO state and MJO into account. Above-normal temperatures are generally favored throughout much of the CONUS and western Alaska. Given the forecast trough over the Southwest, the probabilities for above-normal temperatures are lower across the region (50-55 percent), and they are similarly lower across the Gulf Coast due to a potential for enhanced cloudiness and precipitation. Although the developing ENSO signal favors warmth across the northern tier, the anticipated presence of much below-normal temperatures across Canada, and the suggestion from some models, including the ECMWF, that there could be some spillover of this cold into the northern U.S., mitigates confidence in the low-frequency warm signal, and equal chances for below- and above-normal temperatures are maintained across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Across Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored across the western half of the state, with a slight tilt towards below-normal temperatures near the Canadian border, based on the weighted autoblend of statistical and dynamical model guidance.

The precipitation forecast for the Weeks 3-4 period is complex, which keeps confidence fairly low. Given the forecasted trough, there is an enhanced potential for above-normal precipitation along the Pacific Coast, particularly across California. The majority of the dynamical model guidance, including the experimental SubX models, depict wetness along parts of the Gulf Coast, with drier conditions across much of the interior U.S. Considering the bulk of the guidance, the highest probabilities for below-normal precipitation extend from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes region. Below-normal precipitation is also favored for Alaska.

Given persistent above-normal SSTs in the vicinity of Hawaii, above-normal temperatures are favored. Dynamical models consistently depict enhanced precipitation across the islands during the Week 3-4 period, which is reflected in this outlook as well.







Temperature Precipitation
FCST FCST
Hilo A60 A60
Kahului A60 A55
Honolulu A55 A55
Lihue A55 A55


Forecaster: Adam Allgood

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Nov 16, 2018

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are two category outlooks and differ from official current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.



The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.



As of May 19, 2017, the temperature outlook is operational, while the precipitation outlook is still experimental



An ASCII (w/ HTML markup tags) text version of the written forecast is available.

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6 to 10 Day Outlooks
8 to 14 Day Outlooks
30-day Outlooks
90-day Outlooks
 
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