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Week 3-4 outlooks are experimental at this time, and are issued Friday between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time.
HOME> Outlook Maps> Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks
Valid: 08 Apr 2017 to 21 Apr 2017
Updated: 24 Mar 2017

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Temperature Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

Experimental Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook maps

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Mar 24 2017

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Apr 08 2017-Fri Apr 21 2017

ENSO-neutral conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean, while above average SSTs are in the eastern Pacific Ocean. During the past week, the RMM index continued to indicate weak MJO activity. Dynamical model RMM index forecasts generally depict a weak MJO signal during the next two weeks. The MJO is not anticipated to play a major role in the evolution of the global tropical convective pattern during the next two weeks. In addition to the anticipated weak evolution of the global tropical convective pattern, dynamical model guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA, statistical tools, long term trends, and consistent evolution from the Week-2 forecast were considered for this Week 3-4 outlook.

The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting troughs over the Aleutians and parts of the the western and central CONUS, while ridges are forecast over parts of eastern Alaska and western Canada. The CFS ensemble mean depicts near to below-normal 500-hPa heights over the Pacific Northwest, and near to above-normal 500-hPa heights over the eastern CONUS and Alaska, while the ECMWF ensemble mean shows above- normal 500-hPa heights over the eastern CONUS, the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, Hawaii, and most parts of Alaska.

Above normal heights and 500-aPa southerly flow enhance probabilities for above normal temperatures for the eastern and central CONUS, with the highest probabilities over southern Texas. This pattern is also supported by dynamical model temperature guidance tools (CFS and ECMWF). Below normal heights tilt the odds to below normal temperatures for Washington. Dynamical model guidance from the CFS and ECMWF also favors above-normal temperatures for Alaska, with the highest probabilities over southern Alaska.

The various guidance is in fairly good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Near and downstream of anomalous troughing, above-median precipitation is favored over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The trough forecast over the Aleutians favors above median precipitation for southwestern Alaska, consistent with dynamical model precipitation guidance from the CFS and ECMWF.

Across Hawaii, dynamical model guidance and persistence favor above-normal temperatures and below-median precipitation.

Temperature Precipitation
Hilo A60 B55
Kahului A60 B55
Honolulu A60 B55
Lihue A60 B55

Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Mar 31, 2017

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period

These are experimental two category outlooks and differ from official operational current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.

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