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Official 90-day Outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month at 8:30am Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates.

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HOME> Outlook Maps>Seasonal Forecast Discussion
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS 

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

830AM EST THU NOV 16 2017



MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DECEMBER 2017



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE AND ONE DEGREE C.

FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:

- LIHUE AIRPORT 21.31 INCHES (78 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 18.77 INCHES (164 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 17.09 INCHES (139 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 74.72 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL)

THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO CONTINUE FOR DECEMBER 2017. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN DECEMBER 2017. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HILO AND EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR KAHULUI, HONOLULU AND LIHUE BY DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS DURING DECEMBER 2017.




 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A60 72.5 0.4 A40 6.8 10.2 13.6
KAHULUI A60 73.5 0.5 EC 1.9 2.7 3.4
HONOLULU A65 74.9 0.6 EC 0.8 1.3 3.8
LIHUE A70 73.3 0.5 EC 1.8 3.2 5.5


SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID DJF 2017 - DJF 2018



REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS AND ALASKA, DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION ANOMALIES WERE SUPPRESSED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS WERE MAINLY NEAR AVERAGE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE STRONGLY WESTERLY. THE NCEP CFS AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NMME FAVOR (WITH ABOUT A 65-75% CHANCE) THE CONTINUATION OF LA NINA AT LEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER 2017-18.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII FROM DJF 2017-2018 TO MJJ 2018 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR JJA 2018 AND BEYOND.

DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM DJF 2018 TO FMA 2018. THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) AND CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) TOOLS SHOW BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN AMJ 2018 AND MJJ 2018.  EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII IN MAM 2018, JJA 2018 AND LONGER LEADS.




HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2018 A60 72.8 0.4 A50 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2018 A55 71.8 0.4 A45 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2018 A55 71.7 0.4 A40 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2018 A50 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2018 A45 72.9 0.5 B40 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2018 A40 74.0 0.4 B40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2018 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2018 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2018 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2018 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2018 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2018 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2019 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
\N

KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2018 A60 73.8 0.4 A50 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2018 A55 72.5 0.4 A45 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2018 A55 72.3 0.4 A40 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2018 A50 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2018 A45 74.3 0.5 B40 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2018 A40 76.0 0.5 B40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2018 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2019 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
\N

HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2018 A60 75.3 0.5 A50 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2018 A60 73.9 0.4 A45 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2018 A55 73.8 0.4 A40 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2018 A50 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2018 A45 76.3 0.4 B40 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2018 A40 78.2 0.4 B40 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2018 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2018 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2018 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2018 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2018 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2018 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2019 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
\N

LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
  FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2018 A65 73.6 0.4 A50 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2018 A60 72.2 0.4 A45 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2018 A60 72.1 0.5 A40 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2018 A55 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2018 A50 74.2 0.5 B40 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2018 A45 76.0 0.5 B40 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2018 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2018 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2018 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2019 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
\N
FORECASTER: LUKE HE



ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS


CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 21, 2017.


$$

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