PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR JUNE 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF APRIL - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 4.52 INCHES (31 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.91 INCHES (11 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.49 INCHES (24 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 64.40 INCHES (142 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FOR JUNE
2008. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR JUNE 2008.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B40 75.3 0.4 EC 4.4 5.2 9.1
KAHULUI B40 77.7 0.7 EC 0.1 0.1 0.2
HONOLULU EC 79.7 0.5 EC 0.1 0.2 0.3
LIHUE EC 77.8 0.4 EC 0.9 1.3 1.9
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR JJA 2008 TO JJA 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NINA IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN - BUT CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING APRIL 2008.
NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE
WEAKENED - WHILE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES ARE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES AT
THERMOCLINE DEPTH HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER THE PATTERNS OF TROPICAL CONVECTION AND EQUATORIAL
WINDS CONTINUE TO REFLECT LA NINA. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC -
CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND
ENHANCED CONVECTION COVERED THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING JUNE- JULY 2008.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND
KAHULUI FROM JJA TO OND 2008 - HONOLULU AND LIHUE FROM JJA TO SON 2008. MODELS
ALSO PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM JJA TO ASO 2008.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2008 B40 75.9 0.4 B45 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2008 B40 76.3 0.4 B45 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2008 B40 76.2 0.4 B45 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2008 B40 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2008 B40 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2009 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2009 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2009 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2009 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2009 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2008 B40 78.6 0.5 B45 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2008 B40 79.1 0.5 B45 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2008 B40 78.9 0.5 B45 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2008 B40 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2008 B40 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2009 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2009 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2009 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2009 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2008 B40 80.7 0.4 B45 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2008 B40 81.2 0.4 B45 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2008 B40 81.0 0.5 B45 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2008 B40 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2009 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2009 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2009 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2009 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2009 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 2008 B40 78.8 0.3 B45 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2008 B40 79.3 0.3 B45 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2008 B40 79.0 0.3 B45 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2008 B40 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2009 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2009 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2009 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2009 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE
TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER
EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUN 19, 2008
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