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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 01 - 05, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 03 - 09, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 25, 2018

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE SEPTEMBER 25 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 01 - 05 2018 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL  
500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A DEEP
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA, WHILE A STRONG, VERY ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM A TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE CONUS RELATED TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AN ENHANCED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE SOME RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE EUROPEAN AND GEFS MODEL SUITES. LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. PREDICTED RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF TOOLS. THE DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE THE STRONG RIDGE PREDICTED OVER ALASKA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS INCREASE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND A WELL-DEFINED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 09 2018 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AND THE THOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE. PREDICTED RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR WESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF TOOLS. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR WEEK-2 IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT THAT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER ENTIRE EAST SEABOARD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND A WELL-DEFINED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. FORECASTER: QIN Z NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800922 - 20021001 - 19800917 - 19591003 - 19930914
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20021003 - 19800921 - 19720913 - 20021008 - 20020927 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 01 - 05 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE B A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 09 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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