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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Jul 09 - 13, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 11 - 17, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 03, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2009
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS HIGH, ESPECIALLY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL RUNS DISPLAYING MORE VARIANCE
THAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING AGREEMENT,
THE ANALOG CORRELATION SCORES OF EACH FORECAST MODEL SOLUTION HAVE DROPPED TO
BELOW 0.90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WEEK. THE OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OF
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS,
A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND A TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE OTHER
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A STRONGER
RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE THE LEAST AMPLIFIED OF ALL THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE BEING THE STRENGTH OF THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOLUTION REPRESENTED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
NOT INCONSISTENT WITH A TELECONNECTION CENTERED ON THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS, SO IT APPEARS THE CANADIAN
SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TRANSFERRING ENERGY DOWNSTREAM. THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS DISPLAY QUITE A BIT MORE VARIANCE, WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER ANOMALY COUPLET ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. YESTERDAYS 12Z AND TODAYS 00Z
OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN BOTH BUILD THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA AND BUILD A
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD. THE BLEND RELIES
HEAVILY ON THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE, YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND
THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS INCLUDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE OUTLIER POSSIBILITIES.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF SEGMENTATION FAULT
MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY POOR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND, ANALOG AND KLEIN
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CPC
AUTO FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND, CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE CDC
PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2009
DURING WEEK2, THE FLOW PATTERN PRESENT IN THE EARLIER PERIOD IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS WHILE THE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC DEAMPLIFIES. THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST, RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELDS FROM THE ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT A HIGH LEVEL OF
AGREEMENT, WITH THE MEAN OF THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE DISPLAYING THE WEAKEST
ANOMALIES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE 00Z AND 06Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS
INTRODUCE MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST BECAUSE THOSE SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT
ONLY MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. BOTH OPERATIONAL RUNS FILL
THE TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST AND SHIFT THE AXIS TO THE EAST, WELL OFFSHORE.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES AS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION, DEEPENING THE TROUGH
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DEAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE
CONUS. THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS WEAKENS THE TROUGH OUT WEST AND BUILDS A LARGE,
FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. AGAIN, THE BLEND
RELIES HEAVILY ON THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE DUE TO ITS HIGH ANALOG CORRELATION
SCORE AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON THE RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION
SCORES BEING ON PAR WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF SEGMENTATION FAULT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5
BASED ON THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TEMPERED BY SOME DISAGREEMENT
FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE CDC
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
VARIOUS MODELS, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE CDC
PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, AND THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.
FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590617 - 19980617 - 20020614 - 19630710 - 19730628
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590616 - 19610711 - 20040712 - 20000712 - 20020613
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N N NEVADA B B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N N ARIZONA B N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
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