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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jan 22 - 26, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 24 - 30, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 16, 2019

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST WED JANUARY 16 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2019 
 
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING HIGHLY  
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A CLOSED MID-LEVEL  
LOW IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. STRONG RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER TO  
THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. DOWNSTREAM, AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND A STRONG  
TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO RELOAD BEHIND IT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS, FAVORS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE ALEUTIANS, AS WELL AS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS BETWEEN THE ROCKIES AND THE APPALACHIANS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THE WESTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE AMPLIFIED, CYCLONIC FLOW FORECAST OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS FROM THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE HIGHEST FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS NEAR THE PREDICTED MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. SNOW COVER CONSIDERATIONS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE INCREASED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A MEAN 500-HPA
TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2019 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. UPSTREAM, STRONG RIDGING IS PREDICTED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA. A MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, BUT WITH REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. CONVERSELY, MEAN RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE AO INDEX, AS PREDICTED BY MOST OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, IS FORECAST TO TREND STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS, FEATURES BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH FORECAST OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS NEAR THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS UNDERNEATH MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE PREDICTED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS LEADS TO INCREASED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NORTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONVERSELY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN. FORECASTER: SCOTT H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941231 - 20050127 - 20010124 - 19810123 - 19830130
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941231 - 20050126 - 20010124 - 19780111 - 19940125 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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