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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Nov 05 - 09, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Nov 07 - 13, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 30, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 30 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 09 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL  
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC  
OCEAN. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM  
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS AS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY CORRELATIONS. ANOMALOUS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DUE TO EXPECTED WET CONDITIONS. RIDGING OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE EASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO EXIT THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 13 2014 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS AS ASSESSED BY
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS. THE MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. NEARBY RIDGING LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA ARE RELATED TO EXPECTED RAINFALL ON DAY 8 AND INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LATER IN WEEK-2. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19711107 - 19731015 - 20051022 - 20011027 - 19991104
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19711106 - 19961108 - 19891018 - 19731016 - 19791023 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 05 - 09 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 13 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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