Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Hawaiian Outlook
     & Anomalies

   Surface Fcst
     Skill

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Verifications
   Charts
   Explanation

Related Products
   HPC: Day 6, Day 7
   AO/NAO/PNA/AAO

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 30 - Jul 04, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 02 - 08, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 24, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 24 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 04, 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW  
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 500-HPA LOW OVER THE  
GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH CENTERED  
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE MAINTAINING  
THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE REST OF THE U.S. 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EASTWARD TO THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID-ATLANTIC, ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING.  
ELSEWHERE IN THE U.S., ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED WHERE HEIGHTS ARE  
ABOVE NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN U.S.  
WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE LARGEST, AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE IN THE  
BEST AGREEMENT. 
 
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO TRAVEL AROUND A PREDICTED LOW IN THE GULF OF  
ALASKA INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF  
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER WESTERN  
ALASKA FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF ALASKA. ABOVE  
NORMAL HEIGHTS AND NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS STORM  
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., FAVORING NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED MOIST  
FLOW INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, ENHANCING ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
FOR THAT REGION. A PREDICTED COLD FRONT FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%  
OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 08 2016  
 
THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD, EXCEPT THAT THE EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND A BIT FURTHER  
SOUTH. DUE TO THIS SOUTHWARD EXTENSION, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED  
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE  
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECAST IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE  
6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE AND NEAR MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S  
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JULY 21 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20030707 - 19790612 - 19800611 - 19800627 - 19520613
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20030706 - 19790613 - 19800610 - 19800615 - 19520613 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 04, 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA B B MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 08 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Careers