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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 12 - 16, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 14 - 20, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 06, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON JULY 06 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 16 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA MEAN  
CIRCULATION PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN FOR THE  
6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.  
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA,  
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOSED VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA, AND  
ANOTHER TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS  
FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE  
APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF THE ROCKIES. THE PREDICTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS  
ACROSS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC BASINS, AND  
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS DIFFER FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN  
SEVERAL WAYS. THE SINGLE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION DEPICTS TWO TROUGH AXES IN THE  
EASTERN CONUS. THE FIRST IS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE SECOND EXTENDS  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 00Z  
DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION PREDICTS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN  
ENCOMPASSING THE REGION FROM THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE  
06Z DETERMINISTIC GFS FORECASTS SOME DISRUPTION IN THE RIDGE EXPECTED ACROSS  
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, WITH MUCH FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN  
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN US GREAT PLAINS. THIS MODEL SOLUTION ALSO DEPICTS THE  
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CANADA, THOUGH KEEPS THE  
CONUS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST STATES.  
 
THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI MAPS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA,  
WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DISPERSION BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (IMPROVED  
AGREEMENT) WITH THE PREDICTED WEST-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS  
TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI MAPS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD WITH THE  
WEST COAST TROUGH, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS DISPERSION FOR THE DOWNSTREAM  
RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEASTERN  
QUARTER OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., THE PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ALASKA. THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT  
WITH THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT AND ANOMALY PATTERN, THE GEFS CALIBRATED AND  
UNCALIBRATED RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURES, NAEFS BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES, AND  
THE AUTOMATIC BLENDED TEMPERATURES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS  
OF BOTH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS  
IS BASED ON THE SAME TOOLS NOTED ABOVE. 
 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY INDICATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED  
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, AND ALSO WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED IN THE  
EASTERN CONUS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL  
THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. THE  
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE GEFS CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED  
RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION, NAEFS PRECIPITATION, AUTO-BLEND PRECIPITATION, AND  
IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED 500-HPA HEIGHT AND ANOMALY MAP. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z  
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5,  DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE  
UNCERTAINTIES INTRODUCED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 20 2015  
 
THE WEEK-2 ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION  
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE  
PREDICTED MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RECENT  
RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS (00Z, 06Z, AND 12Z), HOWEVER, SHOW VERY  
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z  
GFS SOLUTION PREDICTS A PATTERN THAT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY  
PERIOD. THE 06Z GFS, HOWEVER, IS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE, FORECASTING A TROUGH  
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE 12Z  
GFS FLATTENS THE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND REINTRODUCES A TROUGH OVER  
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND IS THEREFORE BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY  
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS CONSIDERED MODERATE ACROSS  
MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY, AND HIGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IN REGARD TO  
THE PREDICTED TROUGH. 
 
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR WEEK-2 ARE SIMILAR TO  
THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES. THE MORE  
NOTICEABLE CHANGES INCLUDE THE ANTICIPATION OF A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND A CORRESPONDING SOUTHWARD  
DISPLACEMENT OF PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE  
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, AS INDICATED BY LARGER  
VARIATIONS AMONG THE DIFFERENT TOOLS. THE EXPECTED AREA OF ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS IS IN GENERAL  
AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF A WESTWARD SHIFTED TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO  
THE MIDWEST. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5,  
PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST 3 RUNS OF  
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS MODEL, AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION  
TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JULY 16 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19520711 - 19990712 - 19950629 - 19870627 - 19510627 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19520711 - 19990712 - 19870627 - 19950629 - 19510626 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 16 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   N    A      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B      
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    A    B      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 20 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N      
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B      
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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