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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 28 - Mar 04, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Mar 02 - 08, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 22, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 22 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 04, 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. A BLOCKING PATTERN IS  
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WITH A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER  
WEST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TODAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT  
BLEND OF AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE GREATEST WEIGHT FOR THE BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST WAS GIVEN TO THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION BASED ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND
ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED ACTIVE STORM TRACK FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND CALIFORNIA, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE FORECAST BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER ALASKA, WHICH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER MOST OF ALASKA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS STRONGLY FAVORED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS HTTP://CPO.NOAA.GOV/FAVORED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 02 - 08 2017 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, AND A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE RESULTING TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS WELL AS MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN ALASKA, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS. FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20040225 - 19990210 - 19620214 - 19900308 - 20000224
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990211 - 19610210 - 20040225 - 19900307 - 20000223 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 28 - MAR 04, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAR 02 - 08 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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