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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 06 - 10, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 08 - 14, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 30, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE SEPTEMBER 30 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR THE 6-10  
DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS. THERE IS GENERAL  
AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A  
RIDGE OVER THE WEST, AT LEAST AT THE LATITUDE OF THE MEAN POLAR JET. THE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS ENSEMBLES IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN USUAL, RESULTING IN A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN IN THE MEAN.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE A LOWER SPREAD THAN USUAL FOR THAT MODEL, AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WITH AN EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE. THE BLEND IS A FAIRLY EVEN MIX AMONG MODELS, HOWEVER, THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AMONG CANADIAN MEMBERS FOR AN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PRODUCES A HIGHER AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION IN THE BLEND THAN EITHER THE GEFS OR ECMWF MEANS PREDICT. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, UNDER AN ANTICIPATED BROAD RIDGE. MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH, SO THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT IS BEST. ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, EXCEPT NEAR MAINE WHICH MAY SEE ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. ALASKA TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, BUT TOOLS BASED ON MODEL PREDICTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOW ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE JET OVER THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER, ELEVATING CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  TODAY'S PRECIPITATION TOOLS INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK. THE CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND, WITH NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH MODELS AGREEING WELL ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES, BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE, AND HIGH SPREAD AMONG ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2014 THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. THIS LEADS TO A TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR 8-14 DAYS THAT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FOR THE CONUS. THE SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MODELS IS VERY HIGH, WITH MEMBERS ROUGHLY SPLIT BETWEEN DEVELOPING A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND PERSISTING THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  THE CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN TROUGH, AS DO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE 6 AND 12Z GFS.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN TODAY'S SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURE TOOLS BASED ON PREDICTED NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS, AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST, HOWEVER, WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AND ELEVATES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, AND THE PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG GEFS AND CANADIAN MEMBERS. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20080921 - 19511013 - 19520910 - 19690920 - 19631003
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19511012 - 20080920 - 19520909 - 19820928 - 19571011 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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