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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 30 - Nov 03, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Nov 01 - 07, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 24, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI OCTOBER 24 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 03, 2014 
 
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT  
TODAY OVER THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST  
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DEPICT SIGNIFICANTLY  
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA LONG WAVE FEATURES, WHILE THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE  
QUASI-ZONAL. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN  
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH ALSO OVER THE BERING SEA. THE 0Z RUNS OF  
BOTH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVOR A BROAD TROUGH  
CENTERED NEAR THE WEST COAST, AND SLIGHT RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE NATION EAST  
OF THE ROCKIES. THE MORE RECENT 6Z INTEGRATION OF THE GEFS FORECASTS A FLATTER  
VERSION OF THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. 
 
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERNS ARE FAIRLY COMMON IN  
AUTUMN, AS THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SOUTH, AND AS WESTERN PACIFIC  
TYPHOONS GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION WELL UPSTREAM OF THE  
U.S. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL  
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. CONSIDERING THIS, AND TODAY'S MODEL RUNS, A 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND WAS CONSTRUCTED WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER WEIGHTS ASSIGNED TO THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAVE THE EDGE IN PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS. IN THIS PERIOD OF GREATER UNCERTAINTY, IT WAS ALSO DEEMED PRUDENT TO PREDICT A LOW-AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION PATTERN, MAINTAINING CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. THE LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CONUS LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE NORTHERN AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, DUE TO EXPECTED 500-HPA TROUGHS IN THOSE AREAS. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND AN ENHANCED JET ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, IN PART BASED ON THE NAEFS, REFORECAST, AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THE ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA ARE CURRENTLY EITHER STILL ICE-FREE, OR IN THE PROCESS OF FREEZING AT THIS TIME, MEANING THIS RELATIVE HEAT SOURCE IS GRADUALLY BEING CUT OFF. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, MUCH OF THE WEST (AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA), MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST, AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS GENERALLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AND MEAN STORM TRACKS IN THESE AREAS. IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA, THE BASIS FOR THE ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL IS THE ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT PLAINS, AND MUCH OF BOTH THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND AREAS WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR OR BEHIND MEAN
TROUGH AXES. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 01 - 07 2014 THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ACROSS THE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA DOMAIN IS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS TOWARD WHAT THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS PREDICTING YESTERDAY, NAMELY, A TROUGH IN THE FAR WEST, AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS LESS OBVIOUS WITH THE FLATTER ENSEMBLE MEAN PATTERNS THAN IT IS WITH THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS. YESTERDAY'S 0Z, 6Z, AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS WERE COMPLETELY OPPOSITE TO WHAT THEY ARE TODAY OVER THE CONUS, THAT IS, A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. THIS PREDICTED REVERSAL OF LONG-WAVES WITH THE GFS MODEL IS THOUGHT TO BE DUE, AT LEAST IN PART, TO THE RECENT SATELLITE DATA INGEST PROBLEM, WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE RESOLVED. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A FEW MINOR EXCEPTIONS. THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE A WETTER PATTERN WITH A MEAN TROUGH AXIS JUST TO ITS WEST, AND BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA. FROM MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS, CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED TO TREND FROM BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION TO NEAR AND ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO MUCH-IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20051028 - 19531105 - 19821025 - 19621007 - 19841010
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20051028 - 19621003 - 19531105 - 19791023 - 19621008 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 03, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 01 - 07 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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