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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 05 - 09, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 07 - 13, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 30, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 30 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 09 2016 
 
TODAY'S 500-HPA MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A FAIRLY  
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ALEUTIANS WHILE RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER THE  
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY  
THE GFS- AND ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE  
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.  
TODAY'S 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE  
ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS DUE PRIMARILY TO CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED NEAR THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE AXIS  
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO A PREDICTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  
OVER THIS REGION. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED  
TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS DUE IN PART TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT WATERS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN
TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED RIDGING. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH EASTERN CONUS AS ANY EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 10. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS DUE TO POTENTIAL INFLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW TO AFFECT THESE REGIONS. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE NORTH FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECIPITATION OUTLOOK OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 13 2016 TODAY'S WEEK TWO 500-HPA SOLUTIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS EMERGING. TODAY'S WEEK TWO MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THE GREATEST WEIGHTS WERE GIVEN TO THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS BASED LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL SSTS. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL INFLUXES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORECAST TROUGH. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19970911 - 20020902 - 19950819 - 19800824 - 19540913
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19970911 - 19950819 - 20000809 - 20020901 - 19940908 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 05 - 09 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 13 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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