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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: May 19 - 23, 2008 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 21 - 27, 2008 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 13, 2008 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 19 - 23 2008
TODAYS GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG
THEIR COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
STRONG TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY
EXTENDING TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A WEAKER TROUGH IS DEPICTED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. RIDGES ARE FORECAST SOUTHWEST OF GREENLAND AND OVER
WESTERN CANADA. YESTERDAYS OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AND TODAYS OPERATIONAL 0Z
AND 6Z GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH THE 0Z GFS DEPICTING A WEAK OPEN WAVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE 6Z GFS FORECASTING A STRONG CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. DUE TO THE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS... THE HEAVIEST WEIGHTS WERE PLACED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
TODAYS BLEND CHART. THIS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA, THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE STRONG TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW OR MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS SHOULD CAUSE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION. HOWEVER... BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OFF THE WEST COAST LIKELY WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE COOLER
THAN NORMAL. THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR WESTERN ALASKA NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH COAST UNDERNEATH MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY
LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG THE COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... PARTICULARLY FOR
THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND
TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 72N 70W AND ON NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 43N 77W AND 40N 172W.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST... TELECONNECTIONS ON A
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 72N 70W AND ON NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTERS AT 43N 77W AND 40N 172W.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 21 - 27 2008:
FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE
ARE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MOST RECENT GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS AND SPREAD
AMONG THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS VERY HIGH... PARTICULARLY OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE
GENERALLY DIVIDED INTO TWO GROUPINGS... WITH ONE GROUP DEPICTING A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER SHOWING A RIDGE. DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE FORECAST STRONG TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND STRONG
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF GREENLAND... THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO LEAN TOWARD THE IDEA
OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TODAYS BLEND CHART DEPICTS BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...AND 65 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5... DUE TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES, THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, THE CDC
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED
AT 72N 72W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 43N 81W.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, NEURAL
NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT 72N 72W AND ON A NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED AT
43N 81W.
FORECASTER: HANDEL
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
16.
CLICK HERE FOR A GLOSSARY OF TERMS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800509 - 19740511 - 19500425 - 19600501 - 19950518
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800509 - 19600501 - 19500425 - 19950518 - 19740511
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 19 - 23, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 21 - 27, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion,
Surface Forecasts,
500mb Heights and Anomalies,
Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
Model Guidance Used
Our Mission,
Who We Are,
CPC Information,
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