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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 09 - 13, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 11 - 17, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 03, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU SEPTEMBER 03 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW  
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE  
GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA OR WESTERN  
ALASKA. A LOW AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS  
WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF  
THE NATION. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS  
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLE  
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN   
MOSTLY RELATED TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW  
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THE SPREAD IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO THE  
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC RECURVING AND  
ENTERING THE MID-LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD. TODAY'S HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS VERY  
SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. HEIGHTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, FLORIDA, AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.  
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE  
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO WEAK ANOMALOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE  
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS  
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CREATES HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS  
REGION. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED  
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA  
AND WESTERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL  
HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN ADJACENT WATERS.  
 
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE   
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECCTED OVER THESE  
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE  
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THE  
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF  
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND MODERATE  
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015  
 
TODAY'S WEEK-TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY EXHIBIT LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY  
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A  
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ELSEWHERE, TIMING  
DIFFERENCES AMONG ENEMBLE MEMBERS LEADS TO RELATIVLY LARGE SPREAD. OVERALL THE  
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT  
PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT BETTER OVER ALASKA, AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE  
IN FORECASTING A TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND A RIDGE NEAR THE  
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS (EXCEPT FOR THE  
NOTHEAST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA) AND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS  
ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. 
 
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK-2 ARE NOT  
SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS  
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW LITTLE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO  
CHANGE BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S  
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. 
 
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
SEPTEMBER 17 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
20040917 - 19950816 - 19600831 - 19970914 - 19520907 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19970914 - 20040916 - 19950817 - 19520909 - 19600902 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B      
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B      
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B      
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    B      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N      
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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