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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Nov 19 - 23, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Nov 21 - 27, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Nov 13, 2018

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST TUE NOVEMBER 13 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 19 - 23 2018 
 
TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA CIRCULATION  
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO PROGRESS OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW IS  
GENERALLY FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS CORRESPONDING  
TO AN EXPECTED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, A MEAN  
TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS MODEL SUITES. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MEAN TROUGHING OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS GENERALLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST EXTENDING EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER ALASKA, AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AS MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND DUE TO MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED 500-HPA TROUGH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN THE PERIOD, OFFSET BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POTENTIAL PATTERN TRANSITION AS TIME PROGRESSES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 27 2018 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH UNCERTAINTY. GENERALLY, LOW AMPLITUDE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS CONSISTENT WITH A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR PUNCTUATED BY A MEAN TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA AND RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. ENSEMBLE MEAN GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MANUAL BLEND CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS CONSISTENT WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO RESIDUAL TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN COASTS OF THE CONUS, MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS. LARGE AREAS OF NEAR NORMAL ARE FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE CONUS. PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO FAVORED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDERNEATH MEAN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM DURING THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER OVER THE BERING SEA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD. FORECASTER: QIN Z NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19761127 - 19931027 - 19641119 - 19571121 - 20021126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19761126 - 19931026 - 19641119 - 20021126 - 19571121 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 19 - 23 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N B NEVADA A A W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 27 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N B NEVADA N A W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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