Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Hawaiian Outlook
     & Anomalies

   Surface Fcst
     Skill

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Verifications
   Charts
   Explanation

Related Products
   HPC: Day 6, Day 7
   AO/NAO/PNA/AAO

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 05 - 09, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 07 - 13, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 30, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU JULY 30 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA MEAN  
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  
THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE  
NORTHEAST CONUS, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE  
REMAINING PARTS OF THE CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN EXHIBITS GOOD  
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY, AND IS THEREFORE WEIGHTED MORE IN TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND  
THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, AN OMEGA-TYPE BLOCKING  
PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND, WITH RIDGING CENTERED  
NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS  
DEEPER THAN IN YESTERDAY'S MODEL SUITE. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS ONLY SOME EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT OUTLOOK. 
 
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EXTENDING  
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE ECMWF AND GEFS TEMPERATURE  
TOOLS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY, TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAY'S PREFERRED GEFS  
SOLUTION. ALL TOOLS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST.  
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN U.S., WHERE THE GEFS-DERIVED  
TOOLS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE ROCKIES.  
THIS IS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, AND ABSENT BETTER AGREEMENT  
WITH OTHER GUIDANCE, TODAY'S OUTLOOK WAS CONSTRUCTED TO AVOID LARGE  
TWO-CATEGORY CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY. 
    
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S WITH THE LARGEST CHANGES  
OVER THE WEST COAST, WHERE ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FARTHER EAST, ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION REMAINS MORE LIKELY NEAR THE MEAN FRONTAL ZONE INFERRED FROM THE  
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, REDUCING FORECAST  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER WESTERN ALASKA FAVORS CONFIDENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR  
MUCH OF THE STATE. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS TOOLS, OFFSET BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2015  
 
THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS NEARLY STATIONARY COMPARED TO THAT FOR  
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION RESULTING IN  
LOW-AMPLITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. IN FACT, COMPARED TO  
YESTERDAY'S MANUAL BLEND THERE IS SOME RETROGRESSION EVIDENT. THE STATIONARY  
BLOCKING FEATURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS A MAJOR REASON FOR THIS SLOW-MOVING  
PATTERN, THOUGH ITS FAR-FIELD IMPACTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ARE UNCLEAR. 
 
THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN THE PRECIPITATION  
OUTLOOK. THOUGH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY,  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN CANADIAN  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEADS TO INCREASED ODDS OF  
BELOW-MEDIAN RAINFALL IN THAT REGION, EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER ANOMALOUS  
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
 
ANALOGS BASED ON TODAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FAVOR A WARM ENSO STATE,  
HIGHLIGHTING THE CONSISTENCY OF THE FORECAST WITH THE ONGOING LOW-FREQUENCY  
STATE. SEE YESTERDAY'S DISCUSSION IN THE ARCHIVES FOR A MORE DETAILED  
DISCUSSION OF THE USEFULNESS OF ENSO AS A WEEK-2 PREDICTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW  
MONTHS. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY A FORECAST  
LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW. 
 
FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
AUGUST 20 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19810802 - 19750801 - 19960805 - 19540723 - 19590804 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19810802 - 19960808 - 19750801 - 19840711 - 19570721 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    N      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      B    B      
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    B      
UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    B      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    B      
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    B      
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    N    B      
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    N    N      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Careers