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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 05 - 09, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 07 - 13, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 29, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU SEPTEMBER 29 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 09 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST  
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA. GENERALLY, THE MODELS PREDICT TROUGHING OVER  
THE BERING SEA, RIDGING OVER MOST OF ALASKA, TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,  
AND RIDGING CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE MODEL  
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE  
FAVORING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST, AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE CANADIAN  
ENSEMBLE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE, AND ALL THREE ARE WEIGHTED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE  
MANUAL BLEND. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE  
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST. 
 
THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS LIKELY TO STEER STORMS TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN  
ALASKA, WHICH ARE THEN LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE MEAN RIDGE OVER  
ALASKA. TROUGHING OVER THE WEST FAVORS A STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS  
DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE REGIONS. RIDGING FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR  
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE MATTHEW TO  
IMPACT THE EAST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EAST  
COAST, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT IMPACTS ANYWHERE  
FROM FLORIDA TO MAINE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST. ONE OR BOTH OF THESE AREAS COULD  
BE IMPACTED BY HURRICANE MATTHEW, BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ELIMINATING EITHER  
POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY  
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF HURRICANE MATTHEW. 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 07 - 13 2016  
 
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS FORECAST  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MODEL  
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF TROUGHING FORECAST NEAR  
THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RECENT RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS  
AND, TO LESSER EXTENT, THE ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEANS, HAVE INDICATED DEEPER  
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS  
POOR. 
 
THE DEAMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN RESULTS IN LOWER PROBABILITIES IN THE SURFACE  
FORECASTS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NO  
LONGER FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE  
EARLIER PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME ATTEMPT IS MADE TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH  
YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK GIVEN INCREASED MODEL UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES TO THE  
GREAT LAKES AND POINTS EASTWARD, WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OVER THE NORTHEAST.  
THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY,  
WHERE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES. 
 
A WEAKLY ENHANCED STORM TRACK IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHER TIER OF THE CONUS,  
WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
U.S. UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF HURRICANE  
MATTHEW, THOUGH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
OVER THE NORTHEAST IS DUE IN PART TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THAT REGION EARLY  
IN THE PERIOD. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A  
LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST CIRCULATION, POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY, AND UNCERTAINTY  
DUE TO HURRICANE MATTHEW'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS. 
 
FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
OCTOBER 20 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19981005 - 19680921 - 19940909 - 19771002 - 20071009
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19940908 - 19680920 - 19811004 - 19981004 - 20071010 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 09 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 07 - 13 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA N B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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