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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 03 - 07, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 05 - 11, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 28, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU JULY 28 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2016 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA  
HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED  
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF THE CONUS AND NEAR THE  
ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL  
CONUS DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A ZONAL JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS DEPICT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, ALTHOUGH YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE INDICATES MODERATE SPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS AND ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AND PARTS OF NEW MEXICO WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN LOWER 48 STATES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN ADDITION TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FURTHER TILTING THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PLAINS, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, ENHANCING PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. TROUGHING NORTH OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2016 THE WEEK-2 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS, WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD SEEN AMONG YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TODAY'S BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE CONUS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CONUS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, AIR MASSES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THAT REGION AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810804 - 19980811 - 19960809 - 20030727 - 19730811
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810804 - 20030728 - 20070707 - 20030717 - 20060722 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING A N UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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