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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 17 - 21, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 19 - 25, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 11, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 11 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 21 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION  
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS  
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE BEING SEA, A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND  
EASTERN ALASKA, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A  
SOUTHERN JET STREAM UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.   
THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE  
CONUS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE COUNTRY. FOR ALASKA, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. JET STREAM ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 25 2016 MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS (ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), WHILE A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. JET ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FOR PRECIPITATION, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS DUE TO THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770218 - 19950202 - 20030125 - 19520128 - 19860126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770217 - 19950203 - 20030126 - 19860125 - 19540207 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 21 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 25 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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