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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jan 29 - Feb 02, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 31 - Feb 06, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 23, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 23 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED NEAR  
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG  
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S BLENDED 500-HPA CHART INDICATES BELOW  
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS  
ELSEWHERE. 
 
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS IN PARTS  
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND  
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S., UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS  
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST WHERE  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH  
THE EASTERN U.S., FAVORING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD  
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. 
 
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK THAT BRINGS STORM SYSTEMS OVER ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON UPPER LEVEL, OFFSET BY SOME DYNAMIC  
MODEL TOOLS DISAGREEMENT. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2017  
 
BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE TROUGH NEAR ALASKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, AND  
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA.  
OVER THE CONUS, TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN  
ROCKIES, WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST  
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN  
CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORECAST BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN CONUS, DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS THERE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS EXCEPT ALASKA SOUTH COAST AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE IN THE AREA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS, BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF COAST REGION AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INACTIVE OF THE STORM TRACK BEHIND OF THE FORECAST TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME DYNAMIC MODEL TOOLS DISAGREEMENT AND INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY. FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950113 - 19950118 - 19920103 - 20080106 - 20060115
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950113 - 19950118 - 19560124 - 19580127 - 19920102 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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