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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 26 - 30, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 28 - Aug 03, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 20, 2018

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 20 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2018 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW  
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEANS  
PREDICT TROUGHS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE  
IS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE BELOW NORMAL  
500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, NORTHEAST, AND ALASKA. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FEATURE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE TENNESSEE VALLY. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE INCREASES CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., TEXAS AND ALASKA. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM, A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT, AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULT IN RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. A SECONDARY MAX IN PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION TOOLS GENERALLY PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN TEXAS. RIDGING ALOFT ENHANCES ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AS AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVELOPS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 03, 2018 THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE (TROUGH) OVER WESTERN (EASTERN) NORTH AMERICA DURING WEEK-2 PERIOD. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION TO THE TROUGH IS NOTED WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE WEST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN PREDICTED TODAY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY FOR ARIZONA DUE TO MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CALIBRATED TOOLS. A PREDICTED RIDGE CENTERED NEAR WESTERN CANADA LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR REST OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECASTER: QIN Z NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20030725 - 20060630 - 19940708 - 20010706 - 19670701
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20060629 - 20030724 - 19980802 - 19930802 - 19790716 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 03, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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