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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 02 - 06, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 04 - 10, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 27, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2016 
 
AMONG THE AVAILABLE MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD, WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES OVER THE  
PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, THOUGH SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS DEPICT RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES, TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE MANUAL BLEND RETAINS A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE ALEUTIANS, RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS, TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL, SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RIDGING OVER THE WEST STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DUE TO TROUGHING ALOFT AND SOME NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, ARE FAVORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST. SEMI-PERSISTENT TROUGHING SOUTH OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION. RIDGING ALONG THE ROCKIES FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. UPSTREAM OF THE MEAN TROUGHING AND A MEAN FRONTAL POSITION FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2016 THE MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT, INCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, RIDGING ALONG THE ROCKIES, AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THE MANUAL BLEND REFLECTS THOSE FEATURES. THE GEFS MEANS DEPICT A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOKS, THE WAVELENGTH IS SHORTENED AND THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. RIDGING OVER THE WEST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTWARD TO THE WEST COAST. PROBABILITIES ALONG THE WEST COAST ARE LOWER THAN THE AUTO-BLEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. THE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE ENCROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH AND MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT OFFSET BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE TOOLS. FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19590523 - 19820530 - 19910522 - 19990516 - 19780530
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910521 - 19590524 - 19960531 - 19820529 - 19780531 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B N OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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