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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 27 - 31, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 29 - Aug 04, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 21, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON JULY 21 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - 31 2014 
 
TODAY’S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PREDICTING A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH EACH  
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN IN TODAY’S 6-10 DAY FORECAST. TODAY'S OFFICIAL  
500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FEATURES AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA, A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN AN ANONYMOUSLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE OVER THE PACIFIC, RATHER THAN CANADA, SO TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS BELOW-NORMAL AS WITH THE TROUGH THAT ARRIVED IN THE EASTERN CONUS LAST WEEK. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. SINCE THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST UNTIL LATER IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE GULF COAST, IN FLORIDA, AND IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS OFFSHORE WINDS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, EXCEPT IN NORTHERN ALASKA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT STORM SYSTEMS FROM COMING ONSHORE, FAVORING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION, FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2014 THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED. THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENCES NOTED. THE FORECAST PROBABILITIES ARE ALL SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND THE GENERAL INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH. THE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE GULF COAST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, SO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION ANOMALY OUTLOOK IT SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FORECASTER: MIKE CHARLES NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810701 - 19770701 - 19670707 - 20050717 - 20020727
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810630 - 19770701 - 20050717 - 19670707 - 19810731 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - 31 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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