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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jan 22 - 26, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 24 - 30, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 16, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 16 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER  
WESTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE  
A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TODAY'S BLENDED 500-HPA CHART INDICATES  
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS, THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. 
 
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD IN THE NORTHERN  
JET STREAM, AND LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE AO INDEX  
WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE/CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN  
WEAKLY POSITIVE/CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH DAY 14, ALTHOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY  
LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE SIGN AND MAGNITUDE OF THE  
INDEX. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO  
BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY DAY 7, BE CLOSE TO ZERO AT DAY 10, AND REMAIN NEAR  
ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR THE EXPECTATION OF AIR MASSES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN  
LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE  
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  
 
A SOUTHERN JET STREAM AND THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCE  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXCEPTIONS  
ARE OVER MAINE WHERE THE FORECAST RIDGE TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY  
FLOW FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE REAR SIDE OF THE  
CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR A SMALL  
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA  
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONS FOR THAT REGION WHILE A  
WEAK RIDGE TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15%  
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL  
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8,  
20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S  
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z  
ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS,  
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE  
NORTHERN STREAM 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2017  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 
PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. 
COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A PATTERN CHANGE DURING WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED,  
WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE  
ALEUTIANS, AND THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHWEST  
CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO ALONG  
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE  
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND  
GENERALLY INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF  
THE CONUS, THE ALEUTIANS, AND WESTERN ALASKA , WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, EASTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND AIR MASSES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL SST'S AND  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR  
EASTERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR  
ANOMALOUS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN  
THIRD OF THE U.S. AND THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL  
HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. BELOW NORMAL  
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN  
ALASKA. 
  
ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES, AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE RIDGE BUILDING  
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INDICATES A CHANGE TO THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN THERE IN  
RECENT WEEKS AND ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE  
NORTHWEST U.S. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS, WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND  
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S  
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE VARIOUS SURFACE TOOLS,  
OFFSET BY THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
 
FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JANUARY 19 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890125 - 20070116 - 19900118 - 19740123 - 19840124
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890125 - 20070118 - 19900117 - 19891231 - 19841231 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N N WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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