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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 03 - 07, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 05 - 11, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 28, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 28 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 500-HPA MEAN  
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A 500-HPA RIDGE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS, WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE  
DETERMINISTIC 0Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS A MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED SOLUTION ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS RELATIVE TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS  
PREDICT A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND A TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.  
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST OVER ALASKA WHILE  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TODAY'S  
OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND FAVORS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND IS COMPOSED OF  
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION DUE TO THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  
CONVERSELY, THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH  
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES  
FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. 
    
GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES  
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE  
GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL ROCKIES, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE  
NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH  
AMERICA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FOR PARTS  
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A  
PREDICTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THIS REGION. BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE, NAEFS GUIDANCE,  
AND PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH OF  
ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA  
HEIGHTS. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF  
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S  
12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2015  
 
TODAY'S MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY 500-HPA CIRCULATION ARE SIMILAR TO AND  
REFLECT A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. A  
MEAN TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN  
GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS. IN ADDITION, POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST  
FOR MOST OF ALASKA ALTHOUGH SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THIS REGION. THE  
WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN  
SOLUTIONS AND IS BASED, IN PART, ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON  
ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES  
CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. 
 
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ELEVATES CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS.   
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS  
CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. PROBABILITIES ARE  
ENHANCED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE FAR WEST CONSISTENT WITH  
BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE  
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.  
 
GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR  
WEST EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS  
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH  
PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER, FORECAST PROBABILITIES ARE LOW  
FOR THIS REGION DUE TO CONFLICTING GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE WETTER NAEFS AND THE  
DRIER SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS REFORECAST AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES.  
UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE  
PREDICTS A WETTER SOLUTION THAN ESTIMATES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. DUE  
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS  
INDICATED FOR THIS REGION. TOOLS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, WHERE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION  
IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TOOLS ARE IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT IN FAVORING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA  
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. 
 
 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY DISAGREEMENTS  
AMONG THE SURFACE TOOLS (PARTICULARLY FOR PRECIPITATION). 
 
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
AUGUST 20 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19810802 - 19640801 - 19540722 - 19960719 - 20060811 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19810801 - 20010801 - 19630720 - 19540721 - 19960718 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    N    N      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    N      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    N      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    N      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    N      
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    N      
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    B    N      
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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