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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 06 - 10, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 08 - 14, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 31, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU JULY 31 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10 2014 
 
THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA  
HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS  
AGREE ON A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN, WITH 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER  
MOST OF THE CONUS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WHILE HEIGHTS JUST NORTH OF THE  
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER ARE PREDICTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. MOST MODELS  
AGREE ON SUBSTANTIAL NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH  
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PREDICT AN ENHANCED TROUGH OVER  
THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN TODAY'S BLEND THAN  
THE GEFS OR CANADIAN MODELS IN VIEW OF ITS AGREEMENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS ON  
THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALASKA REMAINS THE MOST DIFFICULT REGION OF  
THE COUNTRY TO FORECAST FOR DUE TO A RELATIVELY COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN  
FORECAST OVER THE STATE.       
 
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, WITH CHANCES  
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND  
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED NEAR THE WEST COAST. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARE PREDICTED TO EDGE INTO POSITIVE VALUES, INCREASING THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND FLORIDA. A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AN EXPECTED MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS.  TOOLS SUGGEST A RATHER WIDE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, SUGGESTING A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE NAEFS AND THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL SHOW ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  TODAY'S TOOLS SHOW AN INCREASING CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ANOMALIES IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED FOR THE PERIOD. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2014 THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA ARE PREDICTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGES. THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES EVIDENT ON THE 8-14 DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED IN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS, HOWEVER, IS FAIRLY LARGE, WITH AN INCREASING PERCENTAGE OF GEFS ENSEMBLES HINTING AT AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TODAY'S 12Z GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN PREDICTS A CHANGE IN THE RECENTLY OBSERVED
500-HPA CIRCULATION, WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER, BUT HIGHLIGHTS THE UNCERTAINTY IN TODAY'S PREDICTION. TOOLS FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST, THE SOUTHERN U.S. BORDER, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND A POSSIBLE TRANSITION FROM COOL CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO WARMER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATIONS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON. TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGHLIGHTING A PATTERN THAT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5,DUE TO AN EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA, AND CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON AUGUST 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670712 - 19620723 - 20080808 - 19560716 - 19650727
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19670711 - 19620723 - 20080808 - 20040804 - 19620718 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA A B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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