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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 05 - 09, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 07 - 13, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 30, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2016 
 
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA  
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN UNUSUALLY  
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THE  
ALEUTIANS/GULF OF ALASKA, AND ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND A RIDGE OVER THE  
INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS WHICH EXTENDS NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN CANADA AND  
EASTERN ALASKA. THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND  
ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS  
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE  
OVERALL PATTERN, AND A BIT LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE  
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGH CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ALASKA, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PACIFIC. ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL, NORTHEASTERN, AND INTERIOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO THE HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND PERSISTENCE ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND SOUTHERN HIGHPLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2016 FOR WEEK-2, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT EXPECTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND ALASKA. THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR WEEK-2 IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE TOOLS. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990516 - 19910522 - 19780529 - 19920520 - 19960601
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910521 - 19990515 - 19960531 - 19780528 - 19920520 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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