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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Feb 16 - 20, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 18 - 24, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 10, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 10 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION  
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS  
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE BEING SEA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND EASTERN  
ALASKA, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME  
INDICATIONS THAT A SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER  
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE  
TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR SMALL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERN U.S. WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA, WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, AS WELL AS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST AND NORTHEAST. THE ODDS TILT TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE EASTERN TROUGH AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EAST AND ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2016 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS (ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), WHILE A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. JET ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WEAKENS, A WARMER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THERE IS RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET STREAM AND A PREDICTED STORM TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770217 - 19860126 - 19950202 - 19540207 - 19780220
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770217 - 19860125 - 19540207 - 19950202 - 19610120 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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