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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 25 - 29, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 27 - Jan 02, 2014-15 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 19, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST FRI DECEMBER 19 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 25 - 29 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN  
FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A RIDGE OVER THE  
GULF OF ALASKA, AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. COMPARED WITH  
YESTERDAY'S PREDICTION, THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OFF THE WEST  
COAST, WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THE  
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST  
DOMAIN. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND INCLUDED THE OPERATIONAL  
EUROPEAN MODEL SINCE IT IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION.   
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN  
CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.  ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INCREASES CHANCE FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ROCKIES, WHILE UP-SLOPE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PART OF EAST GULF COAST REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ACTIVE LOWER-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH GREAT PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST WHICH LIMITS PACIFIC FLOW. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 27, 2014 - JAN 02, 2015 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OFF THE WEST COAST. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AHEAD OF THE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE RELATED TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONSISTENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
GFS ENSEMBLES. NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE GREAT PLAINS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXPECTED UP-SLOPE FLOW OVER THE SURFACE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NEW ENGLAND, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN TOOLS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19911230 - 19591225 - 19931214 - 20061210 - 19871129
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19591225 - 19871128 - 19911231 - 20031224 - 19941228 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 25 - 29 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 27, 2014 - JAN 02, 2015 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B A IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS N A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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