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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Aug 29 - Sep 02, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 31 - Sep 06, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 23, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 23 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 29 - SEP 02, 2016 
 
TODAY'S 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND REVEALS AN AMPLIFIED FORECAST PATTERN OVER  
THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDING TO  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF ITS NAMESAKE STATE. WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS  
FORECAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH THE AMPLITUDE OF  
FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS IS RATHER LOW (GENERALLY LESS  
THAN 40 METERS). THE VARIOUS PRODUCTS DERIVED FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SYSTEMS  
ARE GIVEN FAIRLY EQUAL WEIGHTING, THOUGH THE CANADIAN IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO ITS  
TRENDING TOWARD THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ANY  
CASE, ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR, AND SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE  
THAT ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS NOT EXCESSIVE, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES INDICATED NEAR THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE AXIS.  
SOME TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA  
AT THE FORECAST TROUGH AXIS. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXTENDING  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS. UNCERTAINTY IS SOMEWHAT  
HIGHER OVER THIS REGION DUE TO THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND  
MODIFICATION OF A RELATIVE COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
 
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS DERIVED MAINLY FROM THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS  
AND ECMWF SYSTEMS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN-MOST CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE-MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND  
NORTHEAST, WITH AN EXTENSION SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A KEY  
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS THE PATH OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE  
ATLANTIC BASIN. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD IMPACT THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA OR NEARBY COASTAL REGIONS DURING THE PERIOD. BELOW-MEDIAN RAINFALL IS  
LIKELY CENTERED ON THE MONSOON REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE FORECAST  
CIRCULATION IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MONSOON RAINFALL. 
 
WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE AXIS FORECAST OVER ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ARE FAVORED, WHILE ABOVE-(BELOW-)MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WEST (EAST) OF  
THE RIDGE AXIS. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z  
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND VARIOUS TOOLS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 06, 2016 THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR WEEK-2 IS DEAMPLIFIED WITH RESPECT TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BUT THE MAJOR FEATURES REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE FORECAST
ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS ARE OF EXCEEDINGLY LOW AMPLITUDE, SUGGESTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF VARIOUS SYNOPTIC-SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE SPAGHETTI CHARTS, WHICH INDEED SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS UNDER WEAKLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A WEAKNESS IN ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES IS INDICATED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S., HIGHLIGHTING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL INCURSIONS OF CANADIAN AIR MASSES. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS UNCERTAIN, A NOT-UNCOMMON FEATURE OF EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOKS DURING LATE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TIME OUT BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE FORECAST SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIPOLE OF FORECAST PROBABILITIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HINTS AT ANOMALOUS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THAT REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 60% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS. FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770804 - 19530903 - 19720903 - 19660818 - 19800807
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770804 - 19530903 - 19800806 - 19720903 - 19520802 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 29 - SEP 02, 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 31 - SEP 06, 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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