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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 03 - 07, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 05 - 11, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 27, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE SEPTEMBER 27 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 07 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST CIRCULATION  
OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS  
DEPICTED WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A DOWNSTREAM  
TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY. DEEP TROUGHING IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, AS WELL AS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A FORECAST RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM ALASKA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FAVORING ANOMALOUS COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, THE ODDS OF WINTER WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE ESPECIALLY ELEVATED IN SUCH A PATTERN. FARTHER EAST NEAR THE FORECAST RIDGE AXIS, BELOW-MEDIAN RAINFALL IS FAVORED. A KEY UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD INVOLVES THE FORECAST TRACK OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND CANADIAN FORECAST SYSTEMS HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THIS PERIOD, WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A SLOWER TRACK FARTHER WEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN, IN WHICH CASE ANY IMPACT WOULD BE FARTHER WEST AND CENTERED DURING WEEK-2. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST COAST ARE DUE TO THE OBJECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OF THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODELS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS IN A MORE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11 2016 RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE AXIS FORECAST OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES LIKEWISE UNDERGO SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION RELATIVE TO THE EARLIER PERIOD, THOUGH THE SAME GENERAL COLD WEST/WARM EAST PATTERN REMAINS STRONGLY INTACT. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, WITH DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS HINTING AT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR INCURSIONS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THOUGH PREDICTED TO BE WEAKER THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, STILL FAVORS AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, THOUGH SOME PROGRESSION TO THE PATTERN EXTENDS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS TO THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, AS UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE FORECAST TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. UNCERTAINTY IS ESPECIALLY HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHERE THE ECMWF FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL, AND THE GEFS FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN RAINFALL. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ITS EFFECTS ON THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON OCTOBER 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20081006 - 19960919 - 19870917 - 20010927 - 19680924
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20081005 - 19960920 - 19870917 - 19680925 - 20090918 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 03 - 07 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 05 - 11 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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