Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Hawaiian Outlook
     & Anomalies

   Surface Fcst
     Skill

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Verifications
   Charts
   Explanation

Related Products
   HPC: Day 6, Day 7
   AO/NAO/PNA/AAO

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jun 01 - 05, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 03 - 09, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 26, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2015 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION  
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE  
MEANS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A RIDGE IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER MUCH  
OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, SOME SOLUTIONS, SUCH AS THE DETERMINISTIC  
0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF, PREDICT THE RIDGE CENTER TO PINCH OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW  
AND MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE, ALLOWING A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO AFFECT  
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST WEAK  
TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RELATIVELY  
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW IS PREDICTED BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE CONUS. AS A  
RESULT, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.  
TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN  
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON  
ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES  
CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA  
DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED  
TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALSO DUE TO SOIL  
MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED MEAN  
TROUGH AXIS. 
 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FOR MUCH  
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE  
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN  
CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO  
PREDICTED RIDGING. 
 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF  
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR  
MODEL AGREEMENT 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2015  
 
DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THAT  
PREDICTED DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE  
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE  
FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS  
WHILE NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE  
CONUS. HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z AND 6Z GFS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATELY HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST  
DOMAIN INDICATING MODEL DIFFERENCES IN RESOLVING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES  
WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. TODAY'S WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND  
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH THE GREATEST WEIGHTS  
GIVEN TO TODAY'S 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS  
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
HEIGHTS PREDICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL  
CONUS BEHIND A POTENTIAL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE GFS  
SOLUTIONS. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE  
INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE, IN PART, TO SOIL MOISTURE  
CONSIDERATIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN  
ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED RIDGING. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH GEFS  
REFORECAST GUIDANCE. 
 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT  
WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ARE WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DUE TO CONFLICTING GUIDANCE  
FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES, WHICH PREDICT A RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN. NEAR TO  
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE  
CONUS CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.  
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH PREDICTED RIDGING. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OFF THE  
COAST. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S  
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON  
DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO FAIRLY HIGH MODEL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JUNE 18 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19780603 - 19890603 - 19690609 - 19900508 - 19900514 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19900506 - 19890602 - 19780602 - 19710604 - 20030608 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    B      
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    B      
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    N      
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N      
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N      
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B      
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A      
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A      
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Careers