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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: May 09 - 13, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: May 11 - 17, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: May 03, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 09 - 13 2016 
 
RECENT GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON  
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10  
DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS/EASTERN CANADA,  
AND THE BERING SEA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS  
EXTENDING TO WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE QUICKER  
TO PROGRESS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH AND PREDICT ADDITIONAL TROUGH ENERGY TO MOVE  
TO THE CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE USUAL MODEL BIAS TO LIFT SPRINGTIME TROUGHS OUT  
TOO FAST, THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS  
HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE  
LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, AND MODERATE TO  
LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY'S 500-HPA  
BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN AND  
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, AND MOST OF ALASKA, WITH  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER REMAINING U.S. REGIONS AND THE ALEUTIANS. 
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF  
THE EAST COAST DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE  
ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND  
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS, AND NEAR THE  
GREAT LAKES. 
  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE TROUGH ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST  
CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. TROUGH ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE
RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS OFFSET BY MODERATE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 17 2016 RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO ALASKA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. DESPITE THE GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD IS DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EAST PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS WEAK
ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST, OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS. THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR EXTREME WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 15% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY RELATIVELY LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, LOW MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 19
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800425 - 19800430 - 19910509 - 19910504 - 19730503
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800425 - 19910508 - 19800430 - 20060422 - 19800505 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 09 - 13 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 17 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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