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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 12 - 16, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 14 - 20, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 06, 2016

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST TUE DECEMBER 06 2016 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 12 - 16 2016 
 
TODAY'S MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.  
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE MOST OF ALASKA AND MOST OF THE  
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS ARE  
ALSO AGREED UPON IN THE MODELS. THE OVERALL PATTERNS AGREE ON A BLOCK OVER THE  
CENTRAL PACIFIC AND AN ENHANCED JET OVER THE CONUS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA  
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AS WELL AS THE 06Z  
GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION DUE TO CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE PREDICTED PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. PREDICTED RIDGING OVER THE BERING STRAIT FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO FUNNEL SOUTHWARD OVER MOST OF ALASKA AND ACROSS CANADA TO THE NORTHERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL SSTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COASTAL ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IMPLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGING OVER THE BERING STRAIT FAVORS A DRIER PATTERN OVER ALASKA AS STORMS WOULD BE DEFLECTED SOUTHWARD. THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK, ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA, FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN, NORTH CENTRAL, AND EASTERN CONUS. THE SLIGHT RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM ARIZONA TO TEXAS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS, AND GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 20 2016 DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD, ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES GROW COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A BLOCKING STRUCTURE IS STILL PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH TROUGHING NEAR HAWAII AND RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA. TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGHING, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DROPPING HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND RAISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH ONLY A MODERATE RAISING OF HEIGHTS FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 500-HPA MANUAL
BLEND IS BASED ON THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE RESULTANT BLEND FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS AS COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO FLOW SOUTHWARD, EAST OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. THE COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES REGION, THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF PREDICTED TROUGHING. WITH THE HEIGHTS PREDICTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IS PREDICTED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THOSE REGIONS. FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM TRACK FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CONUS, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER BECAUSE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER OVER THAT REGION. RIDGING OVER MUCH OF ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, TEMPERED BY DISAGREEMENTS IN THE PREDICTED HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 15
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19871212 - 19681219 - 19671217 - 19731119 - 19611207
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19681219 - 19671219 - 20051202 - 19551115 - 19871212 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 12 - 16 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA A A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 20 2016 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA A A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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