Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Hawaiian Outlook
     & Anomalies

   Surface Fcst
     Skill

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Verifications
   Charts
   Explanation

Related Products
   HPC: Day 6, Day 7
   AO/NAO/PNA/AAO

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 01 - 05, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 03 - 09, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 26, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 26 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 01 - 05 2014 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST  
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT  
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. HOWEVER, THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ENTERING PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA EXCEPT THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR BY THE TROUGH FORECAST IN THIS REGION.  OFFSHORE WINDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN CALIFORNIA. ALL FORECAST TOOLS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH A MEAN FRONTAL POSITION FORECAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE FRONT, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHEAST, AND EASTERN U.S. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE IN THE AREA, WHILE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE 500-HPA PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE NOT FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON ACTIVITY, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG AND EAST OF THE ANOMALOUS
TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S
GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2014 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECASTOVER THE
CONUS. IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALSO FORECAST A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THERE. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ALEUTIANS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, SOUTHERN CONUS, AND THE WEST COAST CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND TEXAS CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST PATTERN. FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800820 - 19510827 - 20020830 - 19730806 - 20020809
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19800821 - 19510827 - 20020830 - 19730806 - 20020809 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 01 - 05 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B B NEVADA A B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Careers