Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center
 
 

CPC Search
Graphics & Maps (6-10 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Hawaiian Outlook
     & Anomalies

   Surface Fcst
     Skill

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Graphics & Maps (8-14 Day)
   Surface Fcsts
   500mb Heights
     & Anomalies

   Model Guidance Used
   Archives [NEW]

Verifications
   Charts
   Explanation

Related Products
   HPC: Day 6, Day 7
   AO/NAO/PNA/AAO

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Jul 09 - 13, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 11 - 17, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 03, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI JULY 03 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2015 
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
THE 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AMERICA 
DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN  
ALEUTIANS AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTINENT, WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS  
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO  
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND NEAR TO  
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA  
HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND BASED  
LARGELY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH  
MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RESEMBLE CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN  
THE PAST. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 
 
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL  
MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. MEAN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL  
FLOW AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. 
 
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, FAVORS ABOVE  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD  
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROUGHING  
AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF  
ALASKA. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE, PARTS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH IN CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES  
FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ALSO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FAVORS  
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%  
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5,  DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2015  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE  
WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED  
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NEAR THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. 
 
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CONUS, FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL  
CONUS. MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS  
DUE TO SMALL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE OUTLOOK IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, DUE TO  
SMALL ANOMALIES.   
 
THE UNCERTAINTY CARRIES OVER TO THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, WHERE THE  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE  
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ARE QUITE LOW. THOSE AREAS ARE WHERE THE MEAN  
BAROCLINICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST, WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FAVORS BELOW  
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF  
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S  
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY SMALL ANOMALIES, FAIR AGREEMENT  
AMONG TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. 
 
FORECASTER: LUKE HE 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
JULY 16 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19790717 - 19560709 - 20060624 - 19990711 - 19720702 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19790716 - 19720701 - 20070708 - 20060623 - 19560709 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   B    N      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    B     COLORADO    N    N      
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    N      
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    N      
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B      
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N      
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N      
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N      
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A      
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A      
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act
About Us
Careers