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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Apr 01 - 05, 2015 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 03 - 09, 2015 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Mar 26, 2015

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU MARCH 26 2015 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 05 2015 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND REVEALS SOME NOTABLE RETROGRESSION  
WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK, WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED  
NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND MUCH OF CANADA UNDER BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. ACROSS  
THE CONUS, FORECAST HEIGHTS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S BLEND, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY  
LOWER OVER MOST REGIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE  
MEANS FROM 0Z ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 
 
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS BASED LARGELY ON THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED  
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, WHICH DIFFER FROM THE SHORT-TERM BIAS CORRECTED TOOLS MOST  
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST. HERE THE  
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE, WHICH  
SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST CIRCULATION, NAMELY THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA. ELSEWHERE THE  
OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK, THOUGH SOME SHIFT TOWARD GREATER  
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE AUTOMATED FORECAST  
STILL SEEMS PRUDENT. 
 
THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AGAIN FLOWS NICELY FROM THE FORECAST 500-HPA  
HEIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS, WHICH SUPPORT AN ENHANCED STORM TRACK  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTHEAST. THE LOW  
PROBABILITIES ARE DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION  
SETS UP. SUCH UNCERTAINTY CAN ALSO BE INFERRED FROM THE ZONAL FLOW FORECAST AT  
MID LEVELS OVER THE CONUS. 
 
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS OVER ALASKA, WHERE THE FORECAST  
HEIGHT PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY LESS DEFINED THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS LEADS TO  
LOWER PROBABILITIES IN BOTH SURFACE FIELDS, ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION, FOR WHICH  
NEAR-MEDIAN IS THE FAVORED CATEGORY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. 
 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15%  
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
  
 
MODEL OF THE DAY: TIE BETWEEN THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE  
MEAN, AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY GENERALLY WEAK  
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09 2015  
 
THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,  
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.  
WITH ANOMALOUS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW,  
COLD CONTINENTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FORCE THE MEAN FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH,  
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ON AVERAGE, MOSTLY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. 
 
SOME CHANGES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, CONSISTENT WITH A  
SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT OF FAIRLY WEAK RIDGING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FALLING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST COAST AND  
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS  
COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. 
 
AGAIN THE SURFACE OUTLOOKS FAVOR THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TOOLS, WHICH ARE NOT  
 AS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HOLDING ONTO OLD BIASES FROM THE PREVIOUS SEASON. THE  
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TOOLS ARE ALSO MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL  
GUIDANCE AT THIS LEAD TIME AS WELL. 
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE  
TO GOOD MODEL AND TEMPERATURE TOOL AGREEMENT. 
 
FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER 
 
NOTES: 
 
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. 
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT 
ISSUED. 
  
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW  
  
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER 
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") 
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY 
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS 
ALWAYS < 40%. 
  
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR   
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN   
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. 
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
APRIL 16 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19620403 - 19940310 - 19590407 - 19980318 - 19940401 
 
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) 
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE 
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19620402 - 19940309 - 19980317 - 20000312 - 20080308 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 05 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   A    B      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N      
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  N    N      
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N      
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09 2015 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    N      
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      A    B      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     A    N      
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B      
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N      
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    A      
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A      
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    A      
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A      
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A      
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    N      
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  N    A      
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A      
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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