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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Oct 26 - 30, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 28 - Nov 03, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 20, 2014

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT MON OCTOBER 20 2014 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - 30 2014 
 
THE AVAILABLE MODELS EXHIBITED GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND HEIGHT  
ANOMALY PATTERNS. THE MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS, BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA. SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 0Z DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN HAS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WITH THE AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING ONLY TO WASHINGTON STATE. THE OTHER MODELS EXTEND THE BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER SOUTH TO OREGON OR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A WEAK TREND TOWARD HIGHER 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WAS NOTED. THE MANUAL BLEND WAS COMPRISED MAINLY OF ENSEMBLE MEANS (60 PERCENT). YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS GIVEN THE MOST WEIGHT AS THAT MODEL HAD THE BEST COMBINED RANKING OF ANOMALY CORRELATION AND ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE. YESTERDAY'S 12Z DETERMINISTIC EUROPEAN SOLUTION WAS INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE MANUAL BLEND WAS A MIXTURE OF THE
GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS, TO CAPTURE THE TREND IN RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEING NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY FLOW. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ALASKA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CAN ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION, DUE TO ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST, NORTHEASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER FLORIDA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7 MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 03, 2014 MODEL FORECASTS OF 500-HPA HEIGHTS VARY CONSIDERABLY MORE IN THE 8-14 DAY TIMEFRAME COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY TIMEFRAME. ANOMALIES PREDICTED BY THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY WEAK, RESULTING IN A POORLY SPECIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS EXTENDING THAT FEATURE EASTWARD, WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE FEATURE NEAR THE COAST. GENERALLY, ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THE LARGEST CONSTITUENT OF 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND WAS THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AS THAT MODEL HAD THE HIGHEST RANKING OF ANOMALY CORRELATION AND ANALOG CORRELATION. THE PATTERN IN THE OTHER CONSTITUENT MODELS WAS SIMILAR, EXCEPT FOR THE 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WHICH EXTENDS THE BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ALL THE WAY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DO NOT INDICATE A SINGLE LOW-PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE IN THE 7-DAY MEAN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE CONUS, WHILE OTHER MODELS DEPICT A SMALL AREA OF LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE PREDICTED TO BE UNDER EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE WESTERN ALASKA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. THE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE A MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, SUPPORTED BY THE PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THOSE REGIONS THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST PATTERN. FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19841008 - 19791024 - 19631011 - 19531009 - 19541019
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19531011 - 19791024 - 19841006 - 19901027 - 19631011 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - 30 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 03, 2014 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
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Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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