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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
 
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.


 
 
HOME> Outlook Maps> Prognostic Map Discussion
 
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Mar 05 - 09, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Mar 07 - 13, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 27, 2017

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 27 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2017 
 
TODAY'S DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER  
THE FORECAST DOMAIN. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS PREDICTED OVER ALASKA AS A STRONG  
RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A DEEP TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS FORECAST FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CONUS. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS INDICATING THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN RESOLVING SHORTWAVE FEATURES OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. DUE, IN PART, TO THESE DIFFERENCES, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WERE GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THE WEIGHT IN TODAY'S 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. THE GREATEST WEIGHT WAS GIVEN TO TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AS IT HAD THE HIGHEST ANALOG CORRELATION (WHICH MEASURES HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST) AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO THE DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED TO DOMINATE THE STATE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS-CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. CONVERSELY, RIDGING AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS (ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES) DUE TO ANTICIPATED MILDER THAN NORMAL AIR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO THE STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PREDICTED OVER THE STATE. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED PACIFIC FLOW. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS WEAKLY FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF COAST REGION UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO MODERATELY HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2017 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR ALASKA. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL, MAINLAND ALASKA. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATELY HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. AS A RESULT, THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO THE DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE POTENTIAL FOR RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH LEADS TO A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS GUIDANCE. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH PREDICTED OVER ALASKA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO MODERATELY HIGH MODEL SPREAD OVER THE CONUS. FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 16
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890227 - 19900214 - 19550223 - 19590207 - 19630312
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890227 - 19550223 - 19590207 - 20060220 - 19820207 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA A B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A N WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
 
Related Topics:
Prognostic Discussion, Surface Forecasts, 500mb Heights and Anomalies, Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill, Model Guidance Used Our Mission, Who We Are, CPC Information, CPC Web Team
 

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