HOME > Climate & Weather Linkage > Madden Julian Oscillation

  • Current Conditions
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  • Forecasts
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GFS MJO index ensemble plume
  • MJO Task Force Dynamical Model MJO Forecasts

The U.S. CLIVAR program instituted a MJO working group to study and develop diagnostics and metrics related to various components related to the MJO during 2006. A subgroup was organized to focus on MJO operational prediction and was tasked to develop a MJO forecast metric for comparison of dynamical models from operational global prediction systems. The decision was made for NCEP / CPC to host the application, display, and evaluation of these MJO model forecasts. During 2010, the group was reformulated as the WCRP/WWRP-THORPEX YOTC Task Force. Below are links to the MJO model forecasts, the MJO Task Force home page and the U.S. CLIVAR MJO Working Group original home page.
Operational Realtime Dynamical Model MJO Forecasts
U.S. CLIVAR MJO Working Group Home Page

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  • Additional MJO Products

  • Time-Longitude Sections of MJO-Associated Anomalies Only
850-hPa Zonal Wind 200-hPa Zonal Wind 200-hPa Vel Potential 850-hPa Vel Potential

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  • Expert Discussions

A global tropics benefits/hazards assessment that incorporates the current state and anticipated evolution of the MJO as input can be found as part of CPC's expert assessments.

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  • Composites

MJO composites using the Wheeler and Hendon (2004) MJO index. The index is based on a combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis using outgoing longwave radiation, 850 hPa zonal wind and 200 hPa zonal wind as input. ENSO and other low-frequency variability is removed in order to target the MJO signal. Shading on the following plots indicate significance at the 95% confidence interval. Contours for all areas are shown for reference.

  November - March May - September
200 hPa Velocity PotentialNovember - March 200 hPa Velocity PotentialMay - September 200 hPa Velocity Potential
Outgoing Longwave RadiationNovember - March Outgoing Longwave RadiationMay - September Outgoing Longwave Radiation
PrecipitationNovember - March PrecipitationMay - September Precipitation
850 hPa Wind and Velocity PotentialNovember - March 850 hPa Wind and Velocity PotentialMay - September 850 hPa Wind and Velocity Potential
Sea Level PressureNovember - March Sea Level PressureMay - September Sea Level Pressure

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  • Educational Material

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  • Publications

Higgins, R. W., and S. D. Schubert, 1996: Simulations of persistent North Pacific circulation anomalies and interhemispheric teleconnections. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 188-207.

Higgins, R. W., and K. C. Mo, 1997: Persistent North Pacific circulation anomalies and the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 10, 223-244.

Higgins, R. W., J. K. Schemm, W. Shi and A. Leetmaa, 2000a: Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. J. Climate, 13,793-820.

Higgins, R. W., and W. Shi, 2001: Intercomparison of the principal modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability of the North American Monsoon System. J. Climate, 14, 403-417.

L'Heureux, M. L. and R. W. Higgins, 2008: Boreal Winter Links between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. J. Climate, In press.

Kousky, V. and M. Kayano, 1994: Principal modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 250-mb circulation for the South American sector. J. Climate, 1994, 1131-1143.

Kayano, M. and V. Kousky, 1999: Intraseasonal (30-60 day) variability in the global tropics: principal modes and their evolution. Tellus, 51, 373-386.

Mo, K. C. and R. W. Higgins, 1998: Tropical influences on California precipitation. J. Climate, 11, 412-430.

Seo, K., W. Wang, J. Gottschalck, Q. Zhang, J. Schemm, W. Higgins and A. Kumar, 2008: Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models, J. Climate, Submitted.

Wheeler, M. and H. Hendon, 2004: An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932.

Zhang, C. and J. Gottschalck, 2002: SST Anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific. Journal of Climate, 15, 2429-2445.

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