Time Speaker or Event   Title or Location
Day 1: Monday, October 22, 2012
07:00-08:00 Registration & Continental Breakfast              Location:  Salons 3, 4, 6
08:00-08:20 Welcoming Remarks   Mike Halpert & Chris Kummerow
Session 1: Annual Review of Weather & Climate and Climate Operations
Chair:  Mike Halpert (CPC)
08:20-08:50 Randall Dole Keynote Identifying Causes of Weather and Climate Events To Improve Predictions
8:50-9:20 Michelle L'Heureux and Tony Barnston Invited ENSO Overview
9:20-9:40 Wassila M. Thiaw Invited Global Climate Overview of 2012
9:40-10:00 Melissa Ou Invited The hot and dry US Climate of 2012
10:00-10:20 Scott Handel Invited Recent Verification of CPC Extended Range Outlooks
10:20-10:40 Morning Break   Location:  Atrium
Chair:  Chris Kummerow (Colorado State)
10:40-11:00 Jae Schemm Invited Hurricane season overview of 2012
11:00-11:20 Gregory Deemer Invited The Current State of Arctic Sea Ice: Trends, Variability, and Implications for the Climate System
11:20-11:40 Marina Timofeyeva   Toward Improving NWS Local and Regional Climate Services
11:40-1:00 Lunch (On Your Own)    
Session 2: The DYNAMO field campaign and the MJO
Chair: Michelle L'Heureux (CPC)
1:00-1:30 Eric Maloney Keynote Recent advances in understanding MJO Dynamics
1:30-1:50 Meng-Pai Hung   Intraseasonal air-sea fluxes in reanalyses and observations during the DYNAMO period
1:50-2:10 Joshua Xiouhua Fu   Intraseasonal Forecasting of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during DYNAMO/CINDY Period
2:10-2:30 George Kiladis   An OLR Based Index of the Madden Julian Oscillation
2:30-2:50 Carl Schreck   An MJO index for the Western Hemisphere
2:50-3:10 Afternoon Break   Location:  Atrium (with refreshments)
Session 3: Tropical variability and prediction
Chair: S-Y Simon Wang
3:10-3:30 Xingwen Jiang   Seasonal Prediction of the Asian Monsoon by the NCEP CFSv2
3:30-3:50 Mingyue Chen   SST Impacts on the Seasonal Precipitation over the Tropical Indian Ocean
3:50-4:10 Zeng-Zhen Hu   Weakened interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean since 2000
4:10-4:30 Daniel Barandiaran   The Missing CFSv2 Skill For Rainfall in the Sahel Region
4:30-4:50 Hui Wang   Time Scale of Oceanic Response to ENSO Estimated from Simulations with the NCEP CFS
4:50-5:10 Martin Schroeder   Trend and Variability of Pineapple Express Events Depicted by Seven Global Reanalysis Datasets
6:00-8:00 Evening Icebreaker   Location: Atrium (Cash bar and Complimentary Appetizers)
Day 2: Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Session 4:  Setting up an operational framework
Chair: Marina Timofeyeva
07:00-08:00 Continental Breakfast   Location:  Salons 3, 4, 6
08:00-08:20 Mike Charles   Adopting a Collaborative Software Development Process in the Scientific Community
08:20-08:40 Jebb Q Stewart   Introduction to the NOAA Earth Information System (NEIS)
08:40-09:00 Marina Timofeyeva   Enhancement of Local Climate Analysis Tool to Better Serve NOAA Staff and Users
09:00-09:20 Cathy Smith   Web-Based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) to allow easy analysis and comparison of datasets
09:20-9:40 Barbara Mayes Boustead   ENSO, NAO, and Laura Ingalls Wilder:  The Story of the Hard Winter of 1880-81
9:40-10:00 Morning Break   Location:  Atrium
Session 5: Prediction and attribution of high impact weather and climate events
Chair:  Indrani Pal
10:00-10:20 Emily Becker   Short-term climate extremes: prediction skill and predictability
10:20-10:40 Imke Durre   Monitoring Climatic Extremes over Global Land Areas with GHCNDEX
10:40-11:00 Bradfield Lyon   Recurrent, Anomalous Circulation Patterns Associated with Mongolian Summertime Rainfall Variability and “Dzud” Events
11:00-11:20 Russ S. Schumacher   Wet weeks in the warm season: Processes supporting widespread multi-day heavy rainfall episodes
11:20-11:40 Klaus Wolter   Was the increased areal extent in U.S. drought conditions predictable for 2012?
11:40-1:00 Lunch (On Your Own)    
Session 6: Prediction and attribution of high impact weather and climate events (cont'd)
Chair: Jae Schemm
1:00-1:20 Anthony Barnston   Diagnostics and Flavors of U.S. summer heat waves; the Summers of 2011 and 2012 in Historical Perspective
1:20-1:40 Philip Pegion   Factors in Seasonal to Interannual Variability of U.S. Tornadic Activity
1:40-2:00 Michael K. Tippett   CFSv2 forecasts of a U.S. monthly tornado index
2:00-2:20 Monika Barcikowska   Changes in Tropical Cyclone activity for the Western North Pacific during the last decades
2:20-2:40 Philip Klotzbach   ENSO, the MJO and Atlantic Basin Rapid Intensification
2:40-3:00 Christopher Landsea   Reanalysis of the Atlantic Hurricane Database - Results from 1851 to 1954
3:00-3:20 Afternoon Break   Location:  Atrium (with refreshments)
Session 7: Forecast evaluation
Chair:  Marina Timofeyeva
3:20-3:40 Dan Gianotti   Establishing Potential Predictability of U.S. Precipitation Using Rain Gauge Data
3:40-4:00 Peitao Peng   A skill comparison among two versions of CFS and CPC’s operational short-lead seasonal outlooks
4:00-4:20 Debbie Hudson   Impacts of pseudo-coupled data assimilation and ensemble generation on intraseasonal forecast skill
4:20-4:40 Thomas M Hamill   MJO, ENSO, atmospheric blocking, and their relationships in the 2nd-generation GEFS reforecasts
4:40-5:00 David Meyer   Impact of CFSv1 vs CFSv2 Forcing on Intraseasonal to Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
6:00-8:00 Poster Event   Location: Salon 2 (Cash Bar & Complimentary Hors d'oeuvres)
Day 3: Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Session 8: Improving forecast skill
Chair: David Unger
07:00-08:00 Continental Breakfast   Location:  Salons 3, 4, 6
08:00-08:20 Kathy Pegion   A Conditional Skill Mask for Improved Seasonal Predictions
08:20-08:40 Andrew Robertson   Combining Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts over Indonesia
08:40-09:00 Dan Collins   Advancing intraseasonal climate forecasts through use of reforecasts
09:00-09:20 Kate Thayer-Calder   Evaluating Downdraft Parameterizations with High Resolution CRM Data
09:20-09:40 Nat Johnson   Incorporating MJO and ENSO information into probabilistic temperature forecasts over North America
09:40-10:00 Jiming Jin   An Improved Climate Dynamical Downscaling at Regional Scales
10:00-10:20 Morning Break   Location:  Atrium
Session 9: Improving and evaluating multi-model ensemble forecasts
Chair:  Debbie Hudson
10:20-10:40 Huug van den Dool   Homogeneous and heterogeneous predictability and forecast skill in MME
10:40-11:00 Emily Becker   Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal and Monthly Prediction
11:00-11:20 David Unger   A Consolidated Seasonal Temperature Forecast based on the National Multi-Model Ensemble
11:20-11:40 Malaquias Pena   International Multi-Model Ensemble: Products and Forecast Skill Assessments
11:40-1:00 Lunch (On Your Own)    
Session 10: Teleconnections and extratropical variability
Chair:  Nat Johnson
1:00-1:20 David Thompson Invited On the leading patterns of variability in the extratropical circulation
1:20-1:40 Emily Riddle   Exploiting the MJO in extended range forecasts for mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies over North American
1:40-2:00 Rebecca Smith   Identifying Connections between Large-Scale Climate Variability and the Local Hydroclimate of the Upper Colorado River Basin
2:00-2:20 Nelun Fernando   Factors driving the persistence of ENSO-led winter rainfall deficits into late-spring and early-summer over Texas
2:20-2:40 Amy Butler   The equal frequency of stratospheric sudden warmings in El Nino and La Nina
2:40-3:00 Jason Furtado   Eurasian Snow Cover, Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling, and NH Wintertime Climate Variability in CMIP5
3:00-3:20 Afternoon Break   Location:  Atrium (with refreshments)
Session 11: Global climate change impacts on seasonal variability and prediction
Chair:  Emily Riddle
3:20-3:40 David Randall Invited The seasonal cycle of Arctic Sea ice in a warming climate
3:40-4:00 Michelle L'Heureux   Tropical Pacific Sea Level Pressure Trends Indicating a Strengthening Walker Circulation
4:00-4:20 S-Y Simon Wang   Is Global Warming enhancing ENSO precursors in the Western North Pacific?
4:20-4:40 Indrani Pal   Magnitude and significance of observed trends in precipitation frequency over the U.S.
4:40-5:00 Paula Gonzalez   Impact of stratospheric ozone depletion on precipitation in South Eastern South America in 20th Century
6:30-9:00 Dinner Banquet   Salons 1, 2, 5
  Kevin Trenberth KEYNOTE  
Day 4: Thursday, October 25, 2012
07:00-08:00 Continental Breakfast   Location:  Salons 3, 4, 6
Session 12: Drought Monitoring and Data Assimilation
Chair: Annarita Mariotti
08:00-08:20 Siegfried Schubert Invited An Overview of the NOAA Drought Task Force
8:20-8:40 Jesse Meng   A Retrospective GLDAS for Improved Global Land Surface Climatology
8:40-9:00 Christa Peters –Lidard   The Impact of Soil Moisture and Snow Assimilation on NLDAS Drought Metrics
09:00-09:20 Martha C. Anderson   Use of remotely sensed evapotranspiration maps for monitoring drought impacts at field to continental scales
09:20-09:40 Amir AghaKouchak   A Multi-Index Standardized Drought Monitoring and Prediction Framework
09:40-10:00 Morning Break   Location:  Atrium
Session 13: Drought and hydroclimate prediction
Chair:  Christa Peters –Lidard
10:00-10:20 Xin Zhong Liang Invited CWRF Optimized Physics Ensemble Modeling to Advance U.S. Drought Forecasts
10:20-10:40 Eric Wood   Assessment of the NMME system for the prediction of Drought over the NIDIS test beds
10:40-11:00 Kingtse Mo   Do Climate Forecast System (CFSV2) forecasts improve seasonal soil moisture prediction?
11:00-11:20 Randy Koster   Two Topics in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting:  Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Precipitation Downscaling
11:20-11:40 R.W. Arritt   Precipitation intensity in downscaled seasonal forecasts
11:40-12:00 Jin-Ho Yoon   Comparison of regional downscaling methods: dynamic downscaling using MRED vs. statistical downscaling methods
12:00-1:20 Lunch (On Your Own)    
Session 14: Physical mechanisms
and case studies for extreme hydroclimate events
Chair:  Siegfried Schubert
1:20-1:40 Martin Hoerling   Is a Transition to Semi-Permanent Drought Conditions Imminent in the Great Plains?
1:40-2:00 Charles Jones   A case study of predictability of extreme precipitation over the CONUS and the MJO
2:00-2:20 Wenhong Li   Summer precipitation variability over the Southeastern United States analyzed from atmospheric moisture budget
2:20-2:40 Rong Fu   Assessing Future Changes of Drought over South-Central United States in Supporting Regional Water Resource Planning
2:40-3:00 Ben Kirtman   Predictability of 2006-07 Drought in Southeast US
3:00-3:20 Afternoon Break   Location:  Atrium (with refreshments)
Session 15: Drought Information and Services
Chair: Kingtse Mo
3:20-3:40 Anthony Artusa Invited Current and future application of tools for Seasonal Drought Prediction
3:40-4:00 Michael Hayes Invited The Role of Monitoring and Prediction within Drought Risk Management
4:00-4:20 Kelly Redmond Invited The WestWide Drought Tracker:  Drought Monitoring at Fine Spatial Scales
4:20-4:40 Nolan Doesken Invited Enhanced drought monitoring and early warning activities in the Upper Colorado River Basin
4:40-5:00 Gregg Garfin Invited Drought Communication in the Southwest
5:00-5:20 Mark Svoboda Invited Drought as a focal point for climate services: Tools of the trade at the National Drought Mitigation Center
6:00-8:00 Posters and social event   Location: Salon 2 (cash wine bar and complimentary refreshments)