Abstract Author: Kingtse Mo
Abstract Title: Hydro-climate conditions over the United States for the water year 2008
Abstract: The Climate Prediction Center has been monitoring the hydroclimate conditions over the United States since August 2007. The Drought monitoring web page is http:/www.cpc.ncepnoaa.gov/products/Drought
The atmospheric conditions are based on the North American regional reanalysis. The hydrological and surface conditions are based on the ensemble NLDAS, which includes four model outputs: Noah, Mosaic, SAC and VIC. The base period is 1979-2007. Each month, we conduct drought briefing to support the operational drought monitoring and outlook. At the end of September, a summary is presented to review hydro-climate conditions for the past water year.
The high lights for 2008 were (1) drought over the Southeast, (2) severe drought over Texas and California and (3) the Mississippi floods in June. Some of these extreme events were responses to the 2007 cold ENSO event that lasted from the autumn of 2007 to the 2008 spring. In June, the cold ENSO event weakened and the CPC forecasted an ENSO neutral condition from July to the end of 2009. While the cold ENSO creates favorable conditions for drought to occur in the Southeast and the southern Plains in winter, the droughts in two regions develop differently. The droughts over the Southeast are likely to persist if the cold ENSO is followed by an ENSO neutral summer. The drought over the southern Plains persists if the cold ENSO event persists.
The North American monsoon will be reviewed and the review also will be updated to include extreme events from now to September.