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HOME > Outreach > Meetings > 33rd Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop > Abstracts

Review of Recent Climate Conditions and Forecasts


Abstract Author: Akhmetova Galiya

Abstract Title: Seismic activity on the Earth, changes of atmosphere circulation and droughts on the Northern hemisphere

Abstract: Important factors of climatic conditions formation are atmosphere circulation characteristics. They are responsible for catastrophic phenomena which recently become more frequent (prolonged droughts and forest fires in some regions, pouring rains and floods in other regions).

Investigations showed changes of atmosphere circulation conditions with strengthening seismic activity. Increase in annual earthquake number is accompanied by more frequent processes of beginnings and developments of southern cyclones and decrease in action duration of zonal circulation processes. Calculated coefficient of correlation between annual earthquake frequency and early number of days with southern circulation along meridians is equal to 0.75. For zonal types of circulation in the Northern hemisphere this coefficient is equal to -0.75. Besides strengthening seismic activity leads to increase in annual number of days with atmosphere processes of intensified exchange between latitudes. Important peculiarity of these processes when earthquakes have become more frequent on the globe is increase in action duration of polar invasions to regions of Atlantic or Pacific oceans with simultaneous frequency decrease of polar invasions to continental regions. During these processes oceanic subtropical anticyclones (North Pacific High and North Atlantic High) are strengthening and their action spreading to adjacent continental areas (Spain, Portugal, California). These lead to intensified descending air movements, great air dryness and high temperatures without precipitation. In consequence the probability of arising severe droughts is very high. Analysis of temporary course of annual globe’s earthquake number from 1988 year till 2007 year showed the increase annual earthquake frequency with the time on the hole. Only in the second part of 70th and during 80th years there were conditions of weakening seismic activity. This time strengthening of zonal circulation and increase in action duration of northern meridional circulation took place on the Northern hemisphere.

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