Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

HOME > Outreach > CPC Seminars
Variability of Indian Monsoon in Relation to Convective Activities over the Indo-Pacific region
D.R. Pattanaik

India Meteorological Dept.(IMD), New Delhi, India

Date:  Tuesday, 19 September, 2006
Time:  10:00 AM
Place:   Room 707, NOAA Science Center
            5200 Auth Road
            Camp Springs, MD 20746


Being an agricultural country, the success or failure of the crops over India is always viewed with the greatest concern and these problems are closely linked with the behavior of the summer monsoon rains from June to September (JJAS) as it contributes more than 80% of the annual total rainfall. India has experienced severe drought conditions in the past including recently in 2002 and 2004 with seasonal rainfall departures of -19% and -13% respectively. The present study is an attempt to explore simultaneous as well as a predictive relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the convective activity over the Indo-Pacific region in order to understand the causes of large negative departures of ISMR. The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data from January 1975 to May 2004 from NOAA’s polar orbiting satellites are used in this study. Similarly, the convective activity over the Northwest (NW) Pacific associated with the typhoon activity over the region, as represented by the daily frequency and positions of typhoon activity over the NW Pacific region for 53 years (1950 to 2002) is also used to find out its impacts on ISMR.

The evolution of OLR (thus, convection) anomalies over the Indo-Pacific regions shows contrasting patterns from January to May preceding the excess and deficient monsoon years with significant correlation coefficient with the ensuing monsoon rainfall over India. It is also observed that a statistically significant negative simultaneous correlation between typhoon days over NW Pacific and July rainfall over India has been observed. Spatial dependence of the relationship revealed that typhoons forming over NW Pacific east of 1500E and moving northwards have an adverse effect on ISMR. It is also observed that typhoons forming over the South China Sea and moving westwards may have a positive impact on monsoon rainfall over India. Enhanced typhoon activity over NW Pacific during July 2002 induced weaker monsoon circulation over the Indian region due to large-scale subsidence.

The security procedures to all interested non-NOAA attendees  for entry into WWB are: You need to give your name, affiliation, and phone #  to the security at the front desk when you arrive.  You need to have a valid photo ID upon entry.  Moreover,  you need to be accompanied during your stay here. I am sorry for the inconvenience.  It may help to make a printout of this announcement and show to the guards for your purpose of visit when u come. If u are interested in giving a seminar at CPC, or for further information, please call (301-763-8000 ext. 7546) or email me (

Directions from Washington Beltway 495: Take exit 7B (Branch Ave), make a right at  first signal, and the building is immediately on your left.

NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: September 16, 2006
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities