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HOME > Outreach > Meetings > 33rd Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop Agenda
Program for the 33rd Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop/CLIVAR Drought Workshop
Lincoln, NE, October 20-24, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
7:30 am - 8:15 am Registration
8:15 am - 8:30 am Welcome Remarks Wayne Higgins; CPC/NCEP
8:30 am - 8:45 am Welcome Remarks Mike Hayes; NDMC/UNL
8:45 am - 9:00 am Welcome Remarks David Legler; US CLIVAR
Session 1: Review of Recent Climate Conditions and Forecasts
Chairperson: Wayne Higgins; CPC
9:00 am – 9:20 am An overview of the evolution of the 2007/08 La Nina Michelle L’Heureux
9:20 am - 9:40 am The 2007/08 La Niña Cycle: Evolution, Prediction and Remote Oceanic Influences Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Wanqui Wang, Arun Kumar, Philip Pegion and Michelle L'Heureux
9:40 am - 10:00 am MJO Event of November 2007- February 2008: Assessment of Global Impacts and Real-time Predictions Jon Gottschalck, Qin Zhang, Wanqui Wang, Yan Xue, Arun Kumar, Michelle L’Heureux, Mike Halpert
10:00 am - 10:30 am Coffee Break
10:30 am - 10:50 am Review of hurricane activity in 2008 Gerry Bell
10:50 am - 11:10 am Hydro-climate conditions over the United States for the water year 2008 Kingtse Mo and Wanru Wu
11:10 am - 11:30 am The CPC Global Monsoon Monitoring Activity Wassila Thiaw
11:30 am - 11:50 am Overview of the 2008 North American Monsoon: Introducing the CPC NAME Forecast Forum Wei Shi, Lindsey Long, Jae E. Schemm and D. Gochis
11:50 am - 12:10 pm Verification of IRI's seasonal climate forecasts, 1997 to present Anthony Barnston
12:10 pm - 1:10 pm Lunch
Session 2.1: Reanalyses and Prediction Systems
Chair Person: Arun Kumar
1:10 pm - 1:30 pm Status of the NOAA CFSRR project S. Saha,and the NCEP CFSRR team
1:30 pm - 1:50 pm Validation and status of NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Michael Bosilovich, Siegfried Schubert, Steve Bloom, Michele Rienecker and the GMO MERRA validation team
1:50 pm - 2:10 pm International Multi model ensemble Huug van den Dool and Steven Lord
2:10 pm - 2:30 pm Geographic distribution of Skill of Official and Objective 3-month Outlooks from 1995 to 2005 Ed O'Lenic
2:30 pm - 2:50 pm Seasonal Prediction Research and Development at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Guomin Wang
2:50 pm - 3:10 pm Coffee Break
Session 2.2: Climate Variability : ENSO, MJO and Teleconnections
Chair Person: Jae E. Schemm
3:10 pm - 3:30 pm The Frequency Distribution of Daily Precipitation over the United States Emily Becker
3:30 pm - 3:50 pm Synoptic-scale convective environment climatology by ENSO phase in the north central U.S. Barbara E. Mayes, Joshua M. Boustead, Jeffrey S. Boyne, Glenn R. Lussky, Craig Cogil, Richard S. Ryrholm
3:50 pm - 4:10 pm The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008: The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO Edward Berry and Klaus Weickmann
4:10 pm - 4:30 pm Oceanic Surface Wind in Satellite Retrievals, NCEP Reanalyses, GFS, and CFS Sarah Levinson, Wanqiu Wang, and Pingping Xie
4:30 pm - 4:50 pm Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the Southeastern United States in recent decades Hui Wang, Wenhong Li, and Rong Fu
6:00 pm Icebreaker (Morrill Hall)
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Session 2.3: Intraseasonal Oscillations, Tropical Cyclones and Prediction
Chair Person: Jon Gottschalck
8:30 am - 8:50 am A probabilistic view of the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Charles Jones
8:50 am - 9:10 am Tropical intraseasonal variability simulated in the NCEP global forecast system and climate forecast system models Kyong-Hwan Seo, Wanqiu Wang, Jae-Kyung Schemm
9:10 am - 9:30 am Dynamical MJO Hindcast experiments: Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Air-Sea Coupling Yehui Chang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, and Duane Waliser
9:30 am - 9:50 am Long Term Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific Tom Murphree and David Meyer
9:50 am - 10:10 am Refinements to Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction from 1 December Philip Klotzbach
10:10 am - 10:40 am Coffee Break
10:40 am - 11:00 am Prospects for subseasonal forecasting of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity Augustin Vintzileos; T. Marchok; H.-L. Pan and S.J. Lord
11:00 am - 11:20 am Application of T382 CFS Forecasts for Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long, Suranjana Saha and Shrinivas Moorthi
11:20 am - 11:40 am Simulation and Forecast of Subseasonal Variability of Hurricane Activity Kathy Pegion, Philip Pegion and Mihai Sirbu
11:40 am - 12:00 pm On NOAA's Hurricane Outlooks Muthuvel Chelliah
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm Lunch
Session 2.4: Climate Prediction and Predictability
Chair Person: Michael Halpert
1:00 pm - 1:20 pm Winter and Summer Season Forecast Experiments with the NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) Using Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States Rongqian Yang, Kenneth Mitchell, and Jesse Meng
1:20 pm - 1:40 pm Statistical downscaling of NCEP CFS retrospective forecasts (precipitation) over the southeast United States Young-Kwon Lim, D. W. Shin, S. Cocke, T. E. LaRow, J. J. O'Brien, and E. P. Chassignet
1:40 pm - 2:00 pm Variations of Tropical Cyclones in Relation to Intra-Seasonal Oscillations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean Chung-Hsiung Sui, Lin Ching, Ming-Jen Yang, Joo-Hong Kim
2:00 pm - 4:00 pm Coffee Break and Poster Session 1
4:00 pm - 4:20 pm Predictability of monthly precipitation and temperature: Role of initial conditions Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar
4:40 pm - 5:00 pm The impact of the mean state on the ENSO simulation and prediction Xiaohua Pan; J.Shukla; Bohua Huang
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Session 3.1: Status & Prospects for Drought Monitoring & Prediction (Invited Talks)
Chair Person: David Legler
8:30 am - 9:00 am Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: Are we making progress? D. Wilhite School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska)
9:00 am - 9:30 am NIDIS – what is it? What does it do? R. Pulwarty (NIDIS)
9:30 am - 10:00 am Drought monitoring – how its done now, how well does it work, what is needed? D. LeComte (NOAA-CPC)
10:00 am - 10:30 am A multi model assessment of the impact of SST variability on drought: An overview of the US CLIVAR drought working group activities S. Schubert (NASA-GSFC) and extended Drought Working group
10:30 am - 11:00 am Coffee Break
Session 3.2: Observing and Monitoring Drought
Chair Person: Rong Fu
11:00 am - 11:30 pm Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View from Georgia D.E. Stooksbury (Univ. of Georgia)
11:30 pm - 12:00 pm Operational Drought Monitoring and Forecasting at the USDA-NRCS T. Pagano (USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
12:00 pm - 12:30 pm Wizards of the Drought Monitor: What's behind the green curtain? M. Svoboda (Univ. of Nebraska)
12:30 pm - 2:00 pm Lunch
2:00 pm - 2:30 pm Drought Working Group analysis of model- produced soil moisture as an index of agricultural drought R. Koster (NASA-GSFC)
2:30 pm - 3:00 pm Drought Monitoring and Prediction Systems at the University of Washington and Princeton University D.P Lettenmaier (Univ. of Washington)
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm Lessons learned from the 2000s Western drought: Evolving linkages between research and services A. Ray (NOAA-ESRL)
3:30 pm - 4:00 pm Coffee Break
Session 3.3: Drought Impacts, Products, and Meeting User Needs
Chair Person: Michael Hayes
4:00 pm - 4:30 pm Drought monitoring and impacts in the Southwest G. Garfin (Univ. of Arizona)
4:30 pm - 5:30 pm Discussion  
6:00 pm - 8:00 pm Reception and Poster Session 2
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Session 4.1 & 4.2: Simulating Past Droughts, Predicting Present and Future Drought, Drought Predictability, DRICOMP
Chair Person: Siegfried Schubert
8:30 am - 9:00 am Large-scale impact of common SST anomalies on drought and pluvial frequency and occurrence K. Findell (NOAA-GFDL)
9:00 am - 9:30 am North American Droughts in the 20th Century: Role of SST Variability and Trend S. Nigam (Univ. of Maryland)
9:30 am - 10:00 am Mechanisms of drought in present and future climate J. Meehl (NCAR)
10:00 am - 10:30 am Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:00 am The role of the Sahara Low in Sahel Rainfall Variability and Change in the CMIP3 Models M. Biasutti (Columbia Univ./LDEO)
11:00 am - 11:30 am Hydrodynamics of the Caribbean low-level jet and its relationship to drought Kerry Cook and E. K. Vizy (Cornell Univ.)
11:30 am - 1:00 pm Lunch
1:00 pm - 3:00 pm Poster Session 3
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm Mechanisms of tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic forcing of North American hydroclimate R. Seager (Columbia Univ./LDEO)
3:30 pm - 4:00 pm Toward a Global Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Capability L. Luo (Princeton Univ.)
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm Discussion  
6:00 pm Transport to School of Natural Resources Reception
Friday, October 24, 2008
Session 5.1: Drought Impacts, Products, and Meeting User Needs (continued)
Chair Person: Mark Svoboda
9:00 am - 9:30 am Impacts and evidence of drought, what additional information is needed? K. Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center)
9:30 am - 10:00 am Drought chasing: An NDMC perspective on future drought activities M. Hayes (Univ. of Nebraska)
10:00 am - 10:30 am Discussion: Future Directions for Drought-Research
10:30 am - 11:00 am Wrap Up and Summary
11:15 am End of Workshop

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