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HOME > FEWS-NET > Afghanistan > Forecasts > 1-2 Day MM5 Forecasts
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1-2 Day High Resolution MM5 Forecasts
Explanation:
Graphics are produced at the Climate Prediction Center using model forecast data. In particular, Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) forecasts extending out to 48 hours are converted into graphics using GIS software and placed on the internet. Raw GIS-formatted gridded files are also available upon request. The forecast initialization time for all model outputs is 1800 GMT, or 10:30pm Afghan time. Parameters currently output include:
Precipitation
One and two day forecasts are produced, each showing total 24-hour accumulated precipitation for the period. Thus, the forecast 'day' for each output is 18Z-18Z or 10:30pm-10:30pm local time.
Snowfall
Similar details to precipitation foreacsts, only using the snowfall parameter.
4:30am Afghan Temperature
We use the 4:30am forecast product to simulate minimum surface temperature for the region, given that this time normally best represents the coolest period of the day within the possible model output times. Since the forecast is for 4:30am and the model initialization time is 10:30pm, this gives a 6-hour lead time for the day-1 forecast, and a (24+6) 30-hour lead time for the day-2 product.
4:30pm Afghan Temperature
Similar to the 4:30am product, but uses the 4:30pm forecast time to simulate maximum surface temperature. Given the 10:30pm model initialization time, the day-1 and day-2 forecast products are created with an 18-hour and 42-hour lead time, respectively.
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