Latest Monthly Assessment -
During the past 14-days, above-average rainfall amounts were reported along a curved path from eastern Texas north-northeastward into the central Mississippi Valley, and continuing eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, central Appalachians, and mid-Atlantic region. Above- average rainfall amounts were also observed across portions of the northern Great Plains, New Mexico, the upper Mississippi Valley, New York, and much of New England. Relatively hot, dry conditions are expected to persist across the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and parts of California. Drought is therefore anticipated to persist and/or intensify in this region, while several areas of drought development have also been introduced, most notably in west-central Montana. The Southwest Monsoon season has already started in some areas of the desert Southwest (such as Tucson, AZ) and is predicted to bring about a one-category improvement in drought conditions across New Mexico, and northern and eastern Arizona during the month of July. For some areas, a one-category improvement equates to the removal of drought. Across the Plains, upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the Northeast, passing frontal systems are forecast to bring an end to current drought conditions. Nighttime thunderstorm clusters, which are generally responsible for about 40-50 percent of the warm season precipitation across the Nation's Heartland, are also expected to contribute to drought removal across the Plains. In the Southeast, above-normal temperatures, deteriorating soil moisture conditions, increased evapotranspiration, and increased demand upon available water supplies, are all likely to make it difficult to obtain any significant drought relief during July. Persistence/Intensification of current drought is favored across the Southeast, while development of additional drought is indicated for portions of the southern Atlantic Coastal Plain. Drought development is anticipated across the leeward slopes of the Hawaiian Islands, from central portions of the Alaskan interior to the Anchorage/MatSu Valley region, and much of Puerto Rico, in response to model predictions of below-median rainfall amounts in those areas.
Forecaster: A. Artusa
Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: July 31, 2015 at 3:00 PM EDT
Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion