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HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
issued by
October 6, 2005
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

By the end of September, equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5ºC were found between 160ºE and 170ºE, while negative anomalies less than –0.5ºC were observed at most locations between 130ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The SST departures in the Niño 3,and Niño 1+2 regions were negative, while weak positive departures were observed in the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions (Fig. 2). During the last three months surface and subsurface temperature anomalies decreased, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while. atmospheric conditions (low-level winds, convection and sea level pressure) remained near average over most of the tropical Pacific.

The large spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niña to weak El Niño) indicates considerable uncertainty (Fig. 3). However, current conditions and recent observed trends support a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for the next 3-6 months.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 November 2005. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message:

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Page last modified: October 6, 2005
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