Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

CPC Search
Expert Assessments
   ENSO Diagnostic
     Discussion Archive

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
issued by
June 9, 2005
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the northern summer and fall (June-November) 2005.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased by more than 2°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific during May (Fig. 1, bottom). By the end of the month, negative equatorial SST anomalies were observed in most areas between 120°W and the South American coast (Fig. 1, top). The decrease in SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during May was reflected by a decrease in the SST anomalies in the Niņo 3 and Niņo 1+2 regions (Fig. 2) and by a decrease in the upper-ocean heat content in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 3). These features were associated with the upwelling phase of an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave. No additional Kelvin wave activity is expected, since the MJO has weakened during the last few weeks (Fig. 4) and the overall patterns of tropical convection, low-level winds and upper-level winds are near average.

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts (Fig. 5) indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail during the northern summer (June-August) and fall (September-November). The spread in the forecasts indicates increasing uncertainty during the last half of 2005.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 July 2005. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message:

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 10, 2003
Disclaimer Privacy Notice