Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

CPC Search
Expert Assessments
   ENSO Diagnostic
     Discussion Archive

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team

HOME > Expert Assessments > ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
issued by
July 7, 2005
Spanish Version (Español -- Courtesy of INFOCLIMA, Peru)

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific during June (Fig. 1, bottom). By the end of the month, positive equatorial SST anomalies were observed in most areas between Indonesia and 90°W, while negative anomalies persisted along the South American coast (Fig. 1, top). The increase in SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during June was reflected in an increase in the SST departures in the Niņo 3 and Niņo 3.4 regions (Fig. 2). However, the overall pattern of tropical convection was near average. During June there was very little week-to-week variation in circulation features, as the MJO became inactive.

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts (Fig. 3) indicate that SST anomalies will likely remain positive during the next 3-6 months, but still within the ENSO-neutral range.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of NOAA and its funded institutions. Weekly updates for SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface thermal structure are available on the Climate Prediction Center web page at (Weekly Update). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 August 2005. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message:

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5200 Auth Road
Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
Climate Prediction Center Web Team
Page last modified: July 7, 2005
Disclaimer Privacy Notice