The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
A strong El Niño
is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to
ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.
A strong El Niño continued during December, with well above-average sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
Ocean (Fig. T18). The Niño-3.4 and Niño-4
indices decreased slightly from the previous month (Table T2). The
subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well
above average, weakened due to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig.
low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies
continued over much of the tropical Pacific (Figs.T20, T21). During the last week, another westerly wind
burst occurred in the east-central Pacific.
The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values
remained strongly negative (Table T1
& Fig. T2). Also, convection remained
strong over the central and east-central tropical Pacific, and suppressed over
Indonesia (Fig.T25). Collectively, these
atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño
Most models indicate that
a strong El Niño will weaken with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late
spring or early summer (Figs. F1-F13). The forecasters are in
agreement with the model consensus, though the exact timing of the transition
is difficult to predict. A strong El
Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to
ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer..
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).