Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center


Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Home Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Extratropics


About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory      


            La Niña is expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.


A moderate-to-strong La Niña continued during December 2010 as reflected by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  The Niño SST index values were between –1.4°C to –1.6°C for the month (Table T2).  The subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) continued to reflect a large reservoir of below-average temperatures at depth in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).  Convection remained enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).  Also, enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds continued over the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20, T21).  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the ongoing La Niña. 

The current ENSO model forecasts have not changed significantly compared to last month (Figs. F1-F13). La Niña is currently near its peak and is expected to persist into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011 at a lesser intensity.  Thereafter, there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether La Niña will last into the Northern Hemisphere summer (as suggested by the NCEP CFS and a few other models), or whether there will be a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (as suggested by the CPC CON and a majority of the other models). 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page Last Modified: January 2011
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities