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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Advisory      


            El Niņo is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2010.


El Niņo strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) encompassing the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18).  The Niņo-3.4 index increased slightly with the most recent monthly value reaching +1.8°C (Table T2).  Consistent with this warmth, equatorial upper-ocean heat content anomalies remained positive.  Subsurface temperature anomalies exceeded +2°C across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17), with the largest departures seen in the eastern part of the basin at the end of the month.  Equatorial low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were also consistent with El Niņo (Figs. T20, T21), along with a continuation of suppressed convection over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).  Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong El Niņo. 

The models continue to disagree on the eventual peak strength of El Niņo (Figs. F1-F13).  At this time, it is expected that the 3-month Niņo-3.4 SST average will exceed +1.5°C during the winter (e.g. November-December-January and December-January-February).  Regardless of its precise peak strength, El Niņo is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months.  Most models indicate that SST anomalies in the Niņo-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niņo will persist through April-May-June 2010. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: January 2010
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