The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño
There is an
approximately 65% chance that El Niño
conditions will be present during the Northern Hemisphere winter and last into
the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
During November 2014, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased
across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18). The monthly Niño indices were +0.7°C in the
Niño-1+2 region and +0.9°C in all other regions (Table T2). The subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged
between 180º-100ºW) also increased during
November as a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave
increased subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig.
the overall atmospheric circulation has yet to show a clear coupling to the
anomalously warm waters. The monthly equatorial low-level winds were largely
near average, although weak anomalous westerlies
appeared in a portion of the eastern tropical Pacific (Fig. T13). Upper level easterly anomalies emerged in the
central and eastern tropical Pacific during the month (Fig. T21). The Southern Oscillation Index has been somewhat
negative (Table T1), but the equatorial
Southern Oscillation Index has been near zero (Fig. T2). Also, rainfall continued to be below average near the Date Line and
over Indonesia, and near average east of the Date Line (Fig. T25). Although
the SST anomalies alone might imply weak El Niño conditions, the patterns of
wind and rainfall anomalies generally do not clearly indicate a coupling of the
atmosphere to the ocean. Therefore, despite movement toward El Niño from one
month ago, the combined atmospheric and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.
Similar to last month,
most models predict SST anomalies to be at weak El Niño levels during
November-January 2014-15 and to continue above the El Niño threshold into early
2015 (Figs. F1-F13). Assuming that El Niño fully emerges, the forecaster
consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is an approximately 65% chance
of El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which are expected
to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).