Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Home Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Extratropics


About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.


            La Niņa is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.    


La Niņa reached moderate strength during November 2007, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extending from 160šE to the South American coast (Fig. T18).  All of the Niņo region indices, except for Niņo-4, were lower than −1.4°C (Table T2). The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific remained below average, with temperatures ranging from 2°C to 5°C below average at thermocline depth (Fig. T17).  Consistent with these oceanic conditions, low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds strengthened across the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21), convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and an area of enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific (Fig. T25). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect La Niņa. 

The recent SST forecasts (dynamical and statistical models) for the Niņo 3.4 region indicate a continuation of La Niņa into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008 (Figs. F1-F13). Over half of the models indicate a moderate-to-strong La Niņa through February, followed by a gradual weakening thereafter. Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends are consistent with the model forecasts. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page Last Modified: December 2007
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities