The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
expected through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.
ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures
(SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). For the
month, slightly below-average SSTs were evident in most of the Niño regions,
except for Niño-4, which remained at zero (Table T2). However,
the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean)
rose from near average to slightly above average, due to the eastward shift of
a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected
in the above-average subsurface temperatures across
the western half of the Pacific (Fig. T17). The atmospheric
circulation remained largely near average during the month, with generally
small departures in equatorial convection (Fig. T25) as well as upper and lower-level winds (Figs.
T20, T21). Collectively, these
atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.
The majority of model
forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) will persist into the Northern
Hemisphere summer 2014 (Figs. F1-F13). Though confidence is highest for
ENSO-neutral, there are also growing probabilities for warm conditions
(relative to cool conditions) toward the spring/summer 2014. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to
continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).