The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate
The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.
Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al.
2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2012-13.
During October 2012, the
Pacific Ocean continued to reflect borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño
conditions. Equatorial sea surface
temperatures (SST) were above average across the western and central Pacific (Fig.
were also reflected in the Niño indices (Table T2). The
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean)
anomalies also increased slightly in association with the downwelling
oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. T17). While the subsurface and surface Pacific Ocean
has recently warmed, the tropical atmosphere remained largely consistent with
ENSO-neutral. Upper-level and
lower-level winds were near average (Figs. T20 and T21), and the strength of
anomalous convection decreased over the past month (Fig. T25). Thus, the
atmosphere and ocean continue to indicate borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño
Relative to last month,
the SST model predictions more strongly favor ENSO-neutral, although remaining
above-average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter
2012-13 (Figs. F1-F13). While the
tropical ocean and atmosphere may resemble a weak El Niño at times, it is now
considered less likely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop. Therefore,
the previous El Niño Watch has been discontinued as the chance of El Niño has
decreased. While the development of El Niño cannot be ruled out during the next
few months, ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).