The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
El Niño is favored to begin
in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
During September 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST)
continued across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18). The monthly
Niño indices ranged from +0.5C (Niño-3.4/ Niño-3) to +1.0C (Niño-1+2; Table
T2). The change in subsurface heat content anomalies
(averaged between 180º-100ºW) was also minimal due to
the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the central and
eastern Pacific (Fig. T17). Equatorial low-level winds were largely near
average for the month, though brief periods of westerly wind anomalies continue
to arise (Fig. T13). Upper-level winds were also close to average
for the month (Fig. T21). The Southern Oscillation Index has remained
negative (Table T1), and rainfall was near
average around the Date Line, with a mix of positive and negative anomalies
over Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (Fig. T25). The lack
of coherent atmospheric and oceanic features indicates the continuation of
Most models predict El Niño
to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Figs.
F1-F13). The consensus of forecasters
indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015
season. This El Niño will likely remain
weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout
its duration. In summary, El Niño is
favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).