The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral is expected into the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2014.
during September 2013, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-average
across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. ).
Except for the Niño-1+2 region, all of the monthly
Niño index values were between 0°C and -0.5°C (Table ). The
positive oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the
ocean) anomalies weakened considerably during the month, due to an upwelling
oceanic Kelvin wave that contributed to below-average temperatures in the east-central
Pacific Ocean (Fig. ). The strength of the tropical atmospheric
circulation anomalies, as reflected by convection and winds, also weakened over
the last month. Slightly enhanced
convection remained over parts of Indonesia, with weakly suppressed convection
evident near the Date Line (Fig. ).
Low-level winds were near average, while anomalous westerly winds
prevailed at upper-levels (Figs. and ).
Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.
The majority of model
forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C)
will persist into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Figs. F1-F13). Though the forecast
favors near-average conditions, many models predict a gradual
change from slightly cooler- to
slightly warmer-than average SSTs as the spring approaches. Overall, the consensus forecast is for
ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).