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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.


            La Niña will likely continue into early 2008.


La Niña conditions strengthened during September 2007, as negative SST anomalies along the equator expanded westward and now extend from 170ºE to the South American coast (Fig. T9). The monthly analysis shows the largest SST departures (-2ºC to -3ºC) between 100ºW and the coast, with departures of -0.5°C centered near the date line (Fig. T18). The magnitude of the negative SST anomalies increased in all of the Niño regions, with the Niño-3.4 index dropping to -0.8°C and the Niño-4 index dropping to -0.4°C (Table T2). The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific remained below average during September, with temperatures ranging from 2°C to 4°C below average at thermocline depth (Fig. T17). Consistent with these conditions, the low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds remained stronger than average across the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21), convection remained suppressed throughout the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection again covered parts of Indonesia and the far western Pacific (Fig. T25). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect a strengthening La Niña. 

The recent SST forecasts (dynamical and statistical models) for the Niño 3.4 region indicate a weak-to-moderate La Niña continuing into early 2008 (Figs. F1-F13). Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends indicate that La Niña will continue and may strengthen during the next 3 months.  

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: October 2007
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