The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2013-14.
persisted during August 2013, as reflected by near-average sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) across much of the equatorial Pacific, with below-average
SSTs in the eastern Pacific (Fig. T18). Consistent with this pattern, the monthly
Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were between 0.0 and -0.3°C, while the Niño-3 and
Niño-1+2 indices were cooler than -0.5°C (Table T2). The
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean)
remained near to slightly above average during August due to the persistence of
above-average sub-surface temperatures across much of the eastern half of the
Pacific (Fig. T17). The low-level and upper-level winds were near
average across the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21). Convection continued to
be enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig.
Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect
Most model forecasts
continue to predict ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) into
the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Figs. F1-F13). For the next several
seasons, the average of the statistical model forecasts is near -0.5°C, while
the average of the dynamical model forecasts is near or just above 0.0°C. Similar to last month, the forecast consensus
favors ENSO-neutral (60% chance or greater) through December – February
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).