Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Home Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Extratropics


About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum


Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Advisory      


            El Niņo is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.


A weak El Niņo continued during August 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) remained above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). Consistent with this warmth, the monthly values of the Niņo-region SST indices were between +0.8°C to +1.0°C (Table T2).  Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central Pacific (Fig. T17).  Enhanced convection over the western and central Pacific abated during the month, but the pattern of suppressed convection strengthened over Indonesia (Fig. T25).  Low-level westerly wind anomalies continued to become better established over parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T13).  These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Niņo. 

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niņo-3.4 SST index (Figs. F1-F13) suggest El Niņo will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niņo-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater).  Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niņo (3-month Niņo-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Niņo will most likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niņo into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niņo during the winter 2009-10. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page Last Modified: September 2009
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities