The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Niña is slightly favored to develop during August - October 2016, with about a
55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
conditions were observed during the past month, featuring slightly below
average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) close to the equator across the eastern
tropical Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). While the weekly
Niño-1+2 and Niño-4 regions were near average, the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 indices
were slightly below average (near -0.5oC) during July (Table T2). Although below-average subsurface temperatures
continued, they weakened during the past month, but remained near the surface
in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific
Ocean also indicated ENSO-neutral conditions. Both the traditional Southern
Oscillation index and the equatorial Southern Oscillation index were near
average during July (Table T1
& Fig. T2), while the upper and lower-level winds also were near average across
most of the tropical Pacific (Figs.T20,
T21). Convection was suppressed over portions of the
western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over part of Indonesia (Fig.
T25). Overall, the combined ocean and atmosphere system
is reflective of ENSO-neutral.
models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to
-0.5°C) by the beginning of the Northern Hemisphere fall, continuing into
winter (Figs. F1-F13).
Statistical models predict a slightly later onset time (i.e., mid- to
late fall) than dynamical models, and also predict a slightly weaker event. The
forecaster consensus favors La Niña onset during the August-October season, and
predicts a weak event (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and -1.0°C) if La Niña forms. Overall, La Niña is slightly
favored to develop during August - October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of
La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).