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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

JULY 2009

Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory      


            El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.


A weak El Niño was present during July 2009, as monthly sea surface temperatures (SST) departures ranged from +0.5°C to +1.5°C across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest anomalies in the eastern half of the basin (Fig. T18). Consistent with this warmth, all of the Niño-region SST indices were between +0.6°C to +1.0°C throughout the month (Table T2).  Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and thermocline (Fig. T17).  Also, convection was suppressed over Indonesia and enhanced across the western Pacific and near the International Date Line (Fig. T25).  In addition, developing El Niño’s often feature westerly wind bursts over the western equatorial Pacific, such as the one which occurred at the end of July (Fig. T13).  These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect El Niño. 

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Figs. F1-F13) suggest El Niño will continue to strengthen.  While there is disagreement on its eventual strength, nearly all of the dynamical models predict a moderate-to-strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.  A strengthening El Niño during the next few months is also suggested by the recent westerly wind event in the western equatorial Pacific, which can lead to additional anomalous warmth across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the next two months. Therefore, current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: August 2009
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