Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Home Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Extratropics


About the Forecast Forum

ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

JULY 2008

Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.


            ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2008.   


ENSO-neutral conditions continued during July 2008, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean remained near-average (Fig. T18).  As is typical with ENSO-neutral conditions, atmospheric and oceanic indicators were mixed, with certain areas in the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggesting a lingering influence of La Niņa and others reflecting an increase in above-average temperatures, particularly in the eastern Pacific.

From west to east, the monthly SST index values range from 0.3°C in the Niņo-4 region to +0.8°C in the Niņo 1+2 region (Table T2).  The subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) has also increased in response to positive temperature anomalies along the thermocline (Fig. T17).  However, a weak, shallow region of below-average temperatures still remains near the International Date Line.

The atmospheric circulation over the western and central tropical Pacific continues to reflect some aspects of La Niņa.  Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds persist in this region (Figs. T20 and T21), while convection remains generally suppressed over the central Pacific (Fig. T25).  In contrast, the eastern equatorial Pacific features weak-to-average low-level easterly winds and average precipitation.  Despite recent increases in SST anomalies, the actual SSTs are not warm enough to support convection (Fig. T18).  Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.

Most of the recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niņo 3.4 region indicate ENSO-neutral conditions (−0.5 to 0.5 in the Niņo-3.4 region) will continue into the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009 (Figs. F1- F13).  However, due to the positive heat content anomalies in the Pacific Ocean , the development of El Niņo cannot be ruled out during the later part of the year, although chances remain low.  Based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, recent trends, and model forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2008.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page Last Modified: August 2008
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities