CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of
this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.
Alert System Status: El
El Niņo conditions will
continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere
June 2009, conditions across the equatorial
-neutral to El Niņo
conditions. Sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest monthly departures
exceeding +0.5°C across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18).
All of the SST indices increased during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.7°C
Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the
upper 300m of the ocean) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig.
T17). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the
low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across the eastern
Pacific basin (Fig. T20), and convection became increasingly suppressed over
This coupling of the oceanic and atmospheric anomalies indicates the
development of El Niņo conditions.
forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niņo-3.4 region (Figs. F1-F13)
reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niņo (+0.5°C
or greater in the Niņo-3.4 region). However,
the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El
Niņo (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current
conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a
weak-to-moderate strength El Niņo into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with
further strengthening possible thereafter.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).