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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

JUNE 2009

Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Advisory      


            El Niņo conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010.


During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO -neutral to El Niņo conditions.  Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest monthly departures exceeding +0.5°C across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18). All of the SST indices increased during June and now range from +0.6°C to +0.7°C (Table T2).  Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. T17). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across the eastern Pacific basin (Fig. T20), and convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. T25).  This coupling of the oceanic and atmospheric anomalies indicates the development of El Niņo conditions. 

Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niņo-3.4 region (Figs. F1-F13) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niņo (+0.5°C or greater in the Niņo-3.4 region).  However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niņo (+0.5°C to +2.0°C).  Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niņo into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter. 

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: July 2009
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