The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory/ La Niña Watch
conditions are present and La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere
summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter
El Niño dissipated and ENSO-neutral conditions returned during over the
past month, as indicated by the expansion of near-to-below average surface
temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). Other than
the westernmost Niño-4 region, the Niño indices were close to zero for May (Table
Below-average subsurface temperatures continued and extended to the
surface across the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). For the
first time in 2016, atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean were
also consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.
The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near
zero (Table T1 & Fig. T2), while the upper and lower-level winds were both near average across
most of the tropical Pacific (Figs.T20-T21). Convection was also near-average over the
central tropical Pacific and over most of Indonesia (Fig. T25).
Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a
transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions.
models favor La Niña (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to
-0.5°C) by the Northern Hemisphere fall (Figs.
F1-F13). However, most dynamical models indicate La
Niña onset as soon as the Northern Hemisphere summer, which is slightly favored
by the forecaster consensus. In
contrast, many statistical models favor a later onset time, with about half
indicating the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter. At this time, the forecasters are leaning
toward a weak or borderline moderate La Niña if an event were to form. Overall, ENSO-neutral
conditions are present and La Niña is favored
to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance
of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).