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ENSO Forecast Discussion

ENSO and SST Model Forecasts

Canonical Correlation Model
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F1
Nino 3.4 Region: 0-4 Season  F2

NCEP Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F3
Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 Region  F4

NCEP Markov Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F5
Nino 3.4 Region  F6

LDEO Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Wind Stress Anoms  F7
Nino 3 Region  F8

Linear Inverse Modeling
Global Tropical SST Anomalies  F9
Nino 3.4 Region: Historical  F10

Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model
Eq. Pac. SST & Anomalies  F11

All Nino Regions & SOI  F12

IRI Compilation of Forecasts
Nino3.4 Region  F13

Forecast Forum

MAY 2008

Forecast Forum

The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.


            A transition from La Niņa to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during June- July 2008.   


La Niņa continued to weaken during May 2008, reflected mainly by changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean .  Negative SST anomalies in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific weakened, while the region of positive SST anomalies increased in the eastern Pacific (Fig. T18).  The latest monthly SSTs in the westernmost Niņo-4 and Niņo-3.4 regions are near 0.7°C below-average, and were near zero in the easternmost Niņo-3 and Niņo 1+2 regions (Table T2). 

Positive oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean)  reflected the continuation of above-average temperatures at thermocline depth in the west-central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17).  However, a shallow layer of negative anomalies (between the surface and 100m in the central Pacific) continue to be sufficiently cool to maintain the below-average SSTs, which support the atmospheric anomalies associated with La Niņa.  Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds continued across the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21), while convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over the far western Pacific (Fig. T25).  Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to indicate an ongoing, but gradually weakening, La Niņa. 

A majority of the recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niņo 3.4 region indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during June - August 2008 (Figs. F1- F13).  During the second half of the year, the majority of models reflect ENSO-neutral conditions (−0.5 to 0.5 in the Niņo-3.4 region).  However, there is considerable uncertainty during this period as some models suggest the possible development of El Niņo while others show a re-development of La Niņa.  Based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends, a transition from La Niņa to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during June- July 2008.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).

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Page Last Modified: June 2008
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