The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during
during April 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST)
developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as persisting near the International Date Line (Fig. T18). The monthly
SST indices were warmer than average in all regions, except for
T2). The downwelling phase of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave that
began in January greatly increased the oceanic heat content during March and
April, and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. T17). The upper portion of these subsurface anomalies
reached the sea surface, warming the waters east of 125ºW longitude. Also
during April, weak low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the far
western Pacific, while upper-level easterly anomalies occurred over much of the
Pacific. Convection was enhanced over
the west-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25). These
atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively indicate a continued evolution
toward El Niño.
The model predictions of
ENSO for this summer and beyond are indicating an increased likelihood of El
Niño compared with those from last month.
Most of the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between
-0.5°C and 0.5°C) will persist through part of the remainder of the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2014 (Figs. F1-F13), most likely
transitioning to El Niño during the summer. There remains uncertainty
as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to
how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower
forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring. While
ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chance of El Niño
increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during the summer.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).