The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate
The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.
Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al.
2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
favored into the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2013
During April 2013,
ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and below average SSTs
confined to the far eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18). The Niño
indices were near zero for the month, except for the Niño1+2 region
which was -0.9°C (Table T2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature
in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained near average during April, reflecting
near-average subsurface temperatures at depth across most of the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. T17). The tropical low-level
easterly winds remained slightly enhanced over the western half of the Pacific
basin, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed across much of the
equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21). Tropical convection was enhanced over Indonesia and
the western Pacific and suppressed over the central Pacific (Fig. T25).
Collectively, these conditions indicate the continuation of
Most models forecast Niño-3.4
SSTs to remain ENSO-neutral into the Northern Hemisphere winter (Figs.
dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions (-0.3°C to 0.4°C) than
the statistical models (-0.7°C to 0°C).
There is still low confidence in the forecasts for the latter half of
the year, partly because of the so-called “spring barrier,” which historically
leads to lower model skill for forecasts made between March and May. Forecast confidence will increase over the next
few months. The current forecast indicates that
ENSO-neutral will likely continue into the second half of the Northern
Hemisphere summer 2013.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).