The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate
The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.
Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al.
2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.
During March 2013,
ENSO-neutral continued, with slightly above average SSTs in the eastern portion
of the basin (Fig. T18). All the Nino indices were between -0.2°C and
+0.1°C for the month (Table T2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature
in the upper 300m of the ocean) increased to near-average during the month as
an area of above-average temperatures at depth moved eastward into portions of
the eastern basin (Fig. T17). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) again
contributed to increased atmospheric variability over the tropical Pacific.
Low-level winds were near average, and upper-level winds were anomalously
westerly across the equatorial Pacific (Figs. T20 and T21). Convection was enhanced
over the western equatorial Pacific and suppressed in the central basin (Fig.
Collectively, these features indicate the continuation of
Most models forecast
Niño-3.4 SSTs to remain ENSO-neutral through the Northern Hemisphere fall (Figs.
dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions (0°C to 0.5°C) than the
statistical models (-0.5°C to 0°C).
There is less confidence in the forecasts for the last half of the year,
partly because of the so-called “spring barrier,” which historically leads to
lower model skill beginning in late spring.
Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).