The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center. The
predictions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are presented in Figs. F3 and
F4a, F4b. Predictions from the
Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6. Predictions from the latest version of the
LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000: Geophys. Res.
Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs. F7
and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the
Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing
during the summer or fall.
during February 2014, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SST)
continuing in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs
increasing near the International Date Line (Fig. T18). Overall, the
Niño indices remained less than -0.5°C, except for the westernmost Niño-4
region (Table T2). A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave
increased the oceanic heat content and produced large positive subsurface
temperature anomalies across the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. T17). In
addition, toward the end of the month, a strong low-level westerly wind burst
re-appeared over the western equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over western
Indonesia and the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).
Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect
The model predictions of
ENSO for this summer and beyond are relatively unchanged from last month. Almost all the models indicate that
ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) will persist through the
rest of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Figs. F1-F13). While all models predict warming in the
tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will
develop during the summer or fall. If
westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the
development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the
spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still
justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to
continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance
of El Niño developing during the summer or fall.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Prediction Center homepage (El
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).