The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate
The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.
Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al.
2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere
During February 2013,
ENSO-neutral continued although SSTs remained below average across the eastern
half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. T18). The monthly Niño 3 and 3.4 indices remained near -0.5°C
(Table T2). The
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean)
increased during the month, largely due to the eastward push of above-average
temperatures at depth (Fig. T17). The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) again
contributed to increased atmospheric variability over the tropical Pacific
during February. Anomalous low-level winds were primarily easterly over the
west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level winds remained near average
(Figs. T20 and T21), but with some
intra-monthly variability. Over
Indonesia, anomalous convection remained enhanced north of the equator and
suppressed south of the equator (Fig. T25). Due to the lack of persistent
atmosphere-ocean coupling, the tropical Pacific continues to reflect
Most models forecast
Niño-3.4 SSTs to remain between 0°C and -0.5°C through Northern Hemisphere
spring and to remain ENSO-neutral (between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) into the fall (Figs.
F1-F13). However, there is increasing
model spread and overall less confidence in the forecast during the last half
of the year, partly because of the so-called “spring barrier,” which
historically leads to lower model skill beginning in late spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored into the
Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).