canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific
(Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and
Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs.
F1 and F2. This forecast
is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the
. The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a,
from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al.
2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs.
F7 and F8.
Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993:
J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9
and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max
Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and
Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in
Niņo 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13,
provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and
the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this
predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.
A transition from weak warm-episode (El Niņo) conditions to ENSO-neutral
conditions is expected during the next three months.
surface temperature (SST)
anomalies decreased in all of the Niņo regions during February 2005
T2). However, positive
sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies greater than +1°C (~1.8°F)
persisted in portions of the central and western equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18).
The pattern of anomalous warmth in the equatorial Pacific in recent
months (Fig. T9) and the most recent
five-month running mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (-0.5)
(Fig. T1) indicate that a weak warm
(mid-Pacific El Niņo)
episode is in progress. However, the recent decrease in SST anomalies throughout
the equatorial Pacific suggests that a return to ENSO-neutral conditions is
spite of the recent trend in SST anomalies, drier-than-average conditions
during February, while enhanced convection and precipitation persisted over
the anomalously warm waters of the central equatorial Pacific (Figs. T11
and T25). This
enhanced convection has been accompanied by strong low-level westerly wind
anomalies (Fig. T20) that initiated an
eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
This wave appears to be stronger than those that have occurred in
recent months in association with MJO activity (Fig. T12).
At this time there is uncertainty concerning the possible influence of this
latest Kelvin wave on the surface and subsurface conditions in the eastern
Based on the recent evolution of
oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and
coupled model forecasts (Figs. F1,
F2, F3, F4a,
F4b, F5, F6,
F7, F8, F9,
F10, F11, F12
it seems most likely that weak warm episode (El Niņo) conditions will continue to weaken during the next three months and
that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail during the northern summer.Some lingering effects of the weak warm episode,
such as drier-than-average conditions over portions of
, may continue to be experienced for the next month or
updates of SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface
thermal structure are available on the