The canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of
SST in the central Pacific (Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241,
192‑196; Barnston and Ropelewski
1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs. F1 and F2. This forecast is produced routinely by the
Prediction Branch of the Climate
The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a, F4b.
Predictions from the Markov model (Xue, et al.
2000: J. Climate, 13, 849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al. 2000:
Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587)
are shown in Figs. F7 and F8. Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9 and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max Planck
Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J. Climate, 6,
1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Wea.
Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in Fig. F12. Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig.
F13, provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution
potential users of this predictive information that they can expect only modest
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
During January 2013,
ENSO-neutral continued, although below-average sea surface temperatures (SST)
prevailed across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18). The Niño 3
and 3.4 indices were below-average for the month (Table T2). The
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was
also below-average, largely reflecting negative subsurface temperature
anomalies in the eastern Pacific. At the
same time, positive anomalies increased and expanded eastward to the central
Pacific by late January (Fig. T17). The variability in both the ocean and
atmosphere was enhanced during January, at least partially due to a strong
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Consequently, the location of the MJO was reflected in the monthly averages
of wind and convection. Anomalous
upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern half of the equatorial
Pacific, while low-level winds were near average (Figs. T20 and T21). Relative to December 2012, the region of
enhanced convection shifted eastward and became more prominent over Indonesia
and the western equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25). Despite
these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective
atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO-neutral.
The vast majority of models
predict near-average SST (between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) in the Niño-3.4 region
through the late Northern Hemisphere summer (Figs. F1-F13). However, because model skill is generally low
during April-June, there is less confidence in the forecast beyond the
spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored
through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
Weekly updates of oceanic
and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center
Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).