CPC and the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of
this predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.
Niņa is expected to continue through
the Northern Hemisphere spring 2008.
Current atmospheric and oceanic
conditions indicate that La Niņa has continued to strengthen in the tropical
Pacific. By the end of January 2008,
equatorial SST anomalies were more than 2.0°C below average across parts of the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T18).
Other than the far eastern Niņo-1+2 region, the magnitude of the cold
anomalies in the Niņo region indices increased during the past month with the
latest monthly values near −1.5°C (Table
The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of
the oceans) also decreased further during January, and negative subsurface
anomalies between −2°C to −5°C expanded westward towards the Date
Consistent with these oceanic conditions, stronger-than-average low-level
easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted across the central equatorial
Pacific (Figs. T20 and
convection remained suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and
enhanced convection covered the far western Pacific (Fig. T25).
Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to
those accompanying the last strong La Niņa episode in 1998-2000.
The recent dynamical and
statistical SST forecasts for the Niņo 3.4 region
indicate a moderate-to-strong La Niņa through the rest of the Northern
Hemisphere winter, with the likely continuation of a weaker La Niņa through
F1-F13). Thereafter, there is
considerable spread in the models, with approximately one-half indicating La Niņa
could continue well into the Northern Hemisphere summer.
Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends are
consistent with the likely continuation of La Niņa through the Northern
Hemisphere spring 2008.
updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate
Niņo/La Niņa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).