canonical correlation analysis (CCA) forecast of SST in the central Pacific
(Barnett et al. 1988, Science, 241, 192‑196; Barnston and
Ropelewski 1992, J. Climate, 5, 1316‑1345), is shown in Figs.
F1 and F2. This forecast
is produced routinely by the Prediction Branch of the
. The predictions from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03) are
presented in Figs. F3 and F4a,
from the Markov model (Xue, et al. 2000: J. Climate, 13,
849‑871) are shown in Figs. F5 and F6.
Predictions from the latest version of the LDEO model (Chen et al.
2000: Geophys. Res. Let., 27, 2585‑2587) are shown in Figs.
F7 and F8.
Predictions using linear inverse modeling (Penland and Magorian 1993:
J. Climate, 6, 1067‑1076) are shown in Figs. F9
and F10. Predictions from the Scripps / Max
Planck Institute (MPI) hybrid coupled model (Barnett et al. 1993: J.
Climate, 6, 1545‑1566) are shown in Fig. F11.
Predictions from the ENSO‑CLIPER statistical model (Knaff and
Landsea 1997, Wea. Forecasting, 12, 633‑652) are shown in
Niño 3.4 predictions are summarized in Fig. F13,
provided by the Forecasting and Prediction Research Group of the IRI.
The CPC and
the contributors to the Forecast Forum caution potential users of this
predictive information that they can expect only modest skill.
A transition from weak El Niño
conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by March-May 2007.
SST anomalies decreased across
the entire equatorial Pacific during January (Fig. T9, Table T2).
However, positive anomalies between +0.5ºC and 1ºC remain
in most of the equatorial Pacific between 160ºE and the South American coast
The latest SST departures in the Niño
regions are around +0.5ºC (Fig.
T5). The equatorial upper-ocean heat content
peaked in late November and has been decreasing rapidly since that time. The
evolution of the anomalous depth of the 20ºC
isotherm (or thermocline) has been consistent with this, with the latest
values being negative across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. T15). These trends in
surface and subsurface ocean temperatures indicate that the warm episode (El
Niño) is weakening.
The value of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI; 3-month
running mean average of SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region – computed
using the Extended Reconstructed SST version-2 data set) for November 2006
– January 2007 is +1.1°C, which indicates weak El Niño conditions.
Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate
Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies will continue to decrease
and that ENSO-neutral conditions will be present during March-May 2007
F2, F3, F4a,
F4b, F5, F6,
F7, F8, F9,
F10, F11, F12
and F13). The
large spread in the most recent set of forecasts indicates that there is
considerable uncertainty in this outlook for periods after May 2007.
updates of SST, 850-hPa wind, OLR and features of the equatorial subsurface
thermal structure are available on the
Center homepage at: